That is an interesting study. The point that the protests actually caused MORE social distancing in the immediate aftermath is a valid one. In LA, we had forced curfews, and all the shops and restaurants that were beginning their re-opening plans indeed put a halt to that, either out of self-preservation or to make repairs from the damage.
"We demonstrate that cities which had protests saw an increase in social distancing behavior for the overall population relative to cities that did not. In addition, we find no evidence that net COVID-19 case growth differentially rose following the onset of Black Lives Matter protests, and even modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline."
The issue here is that we are now experiencing a "spike", which lines up very closely with the lag time of the protests. And despite the fact that protesters were largely wearing masks, as we know from the CDC and others expert sources, simple cloth coverings are not very effective, and can also lead to constant face-touching, which defeats their purpose to a large degree. That study of infection trends also cuts off around June 20.
That study also fails to convey the consequence that once the protests started, the general thought especially among the age demographic of the protesters was "COVID is over, and the police are not going to enforce it anymore." So while the social distancing among non-protesters may have increased, the social distancing among the younger population did not. It is also difficult to pinpoint where a new infection might have come from when many states, NY and California included, specifically avoided asking people if they had been at a protest when they took their test.
So let me ask this: if the protests had no adverse affect on the rise in COVID positive test results that we have seen in the past 9 days, what has caused the rise in Los Angeles county? And if these huge gatherings didn't cause a spike, why are gatherings among anyone but your immediate family now banned in LA? Leaving aside the fact that we have seen a large uptick in actual testing being conducted and a large uptick in hospitalizations and doctor visits for non-COVID related reasons, and people seeking employment are also required to test, and any positive tests result in testing among their families and contacts as well....if we leave all of those facts aside....what has caused the spike? It is certainly not bars or the beach or bike paths.