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CleverNickname

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Everything posted by CleverNickname

  1. Health plans can waive cost sharing, but they can't force a provider (facility or doctor) to not collect the piece of the pie owed them.
  2. So over at King County WA Life Care, covid19 has killed 19 of 120 patients. That's already 16%. And I read the other day that they had 11 deaths before the first diagnosis, and usually they'd have 5 or 6. 16%. Not Great. Not Terrible.
  3. Real talk: half-assed containment *is* mitigation. Who cares how airtight it is? The point is to slow it down.
  4. Rumor is that Italy is rationing ICU beds. May have to triage and just let over 60 die.
  5. One week ago I was pretty sanguine. I am a total doomer, witness my being all over page 1. So for six weeks I watched closely, even bought extra food in the pantry, but wasn't really freaked. My brother in law lives in HK, and so he had a closer perspective. Containment is working there. I'm youngish, my children are hale. The cases in China, SK, and Japan seemed to be leveling off so much. We've been at or under 100k for a long time - steady climbing but it didn't seem out of control. I didn't really believe China's numbers. But there were fewer and fewer exported cases from China - lending some credence to the possibly that China proved it could be contained. Neighboring states seemed to be weathering pretty well. The SK cases were a unique blow up, but even that showed major flare ups could be dealt with. Iran is a shitshow, but I chalked that up to bad government and the impact of years and years of embargos on the health care system. But then Italy and Washington State (and Egypt)... and probably more scare are all the cases those two hotbeds have exported cases. As someone mentioned this AM, there is a case that Las Vegas exported, and we have no idea what things are like there. Now we have SK + Iran + Italy + Wash St + Egypt... probably other clusters across Europe, plus Indonesia and maybe India... just so many more chances to break out. So this weekend, I feel far far worse about things. I do think any given regional blow up can probably be successfully curbed. It might take months, but there is hope. But if there are dozens of regional flare ups? Prediction: Be ready for schools to extend Spring Break 2-3 weeks.
  6. There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. — Lenin.
  7. Not started yet. "Will SXSW start Monday?" "We will address that momentarily." (Nit officially started yet)
  8. I think I mentioned (weeks ago?) that half of SARS survivors never worked again. Chronic fatigue. Maybe that could happen to the 10% with acute pneumonia from Covid19.
  9. Cfr is case fatality rate. Deaths per diagnosed case. Todays total SK numbers are more like 37 deaths on 6008 cases. Still 0.6%. But if many of those cases are in first week, the deaths could quadruple and we are back in scary 2% zone.
  10. I dont think Cloak Room containment strategy should be abandoned. We have been successful in that strategy. However, we need to prepare for any eventuality and explore mitigation techniques if it becomes necessary.
  11. Well, sure football managers opinions don't count. But I work in the same building* as the Board of Nursing. So I'm pretty close to the heath profession. Adjacent to allied health. And really, isn't an ally of an ally just an ally? * technically different towers, but we share a lobby
  12. Good article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-03/how-fast-will-the-new-coronavirus-spread-two-sides-of-the-debate
  13. In 2009 the then-novel H1N1 infected 60M. It turned out to be very mild. Maybe it does turn out to be easier to slow down and stop. That would be awesome. But for now my mom is a 72 year old smoker so I'm tossing out the weird stuff from her freezer and looking up real estate agents to list her house.
  14. I'm sure the Houston/Harris strategy has nothing to do with the rodeo...
  15. I see a lot of photos of the old folks from WA being moved to hospital care and hell of a lot of people wearing some basic masks and not much else in terms of PPE. The Wuhan coverage seemed terrifying precisely because of the head to toe gear health officials were wearing. The WA response looks terrifying because it looks likely a poorly thought through shitshow.
  16. https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-is-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6
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