TX Flood Update (Mon AM)
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain possible today across central Texas and the Hill Country
Persons including response personnel must remain aware of rapidly changing weather conditions and be prepared to take quick action
Forecast:
Mid level trough axis that has plagued central Texas since late last week continues over the region this morning situated with a tropical air mass with extremely high moisture levels. This pattern continues to support periodic episodes of heavy rainfall over central Texas and the Hill Country, but storm motions have been faster in the last day or so and organization of cells less compared to both Thursday and Friday nights when anchored and slow moving cells produce prodigious rainfall totals in short order.
While guidance continues to suggest portions of this area could see additional heavy rainfall and extreme totals of up to 10 inches in a short period of time the exact location of any such occurrence is in question and low confidence. However, such totals would result in rapid onset flash flooding given background conditions over the area.
Trough axis should finally begin to break down into Tuesday with lowering chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over this part of the state.
Rivers:
All rivers have passed recent flood flows downstream into receiving lakes that have and continue to hold inflows due to extremely low pool levels in this area from the ongoing longer term drought. There are no significant ongoing impacts along any of the rivers, although the following are running above base flow this morning:
Guadalupe River
San Gabriel River
Upper San Saba River (Near Mason TX)
Leon River
Sandy Creek at Kingsland TX
None of these rivers or creeks are currently at levels nor forecasted to rise to levels that would cause any significant impacts.
Guadalupe River Flood Disaster:
A USGS team was able to reach the Hunt, TX river gage over the weekend and was able to establish from the gage data and high water mark an elevation of 37.52 ft. While data evaluation is still ongoing…the preliminary information suggests this is a flood of record at Hunt, TX surpassing the flood of 1932 of 36.60 ft. The following table is a list of the top 5 all-time flood elevations for the Hunt, TX gage:
37.52 ft (July 4, 2025)
36.60 ft (July 2, 1932)
28.40 ft (July 17, 1987)
23.50 ft (August 2, 1978)
22.80 ft (October 19, 1985)
It is interesting to note that the top 3 all-time floods at this site all occurred in the month of July.
At Kerrville, TX a peak gage height of 34.29 ft was recorded making this event the 3rd highest on record for this location behind the July 1932 and July 1987 floods. The following table is a list of the top 5 all-time flood elevations for the Kerrville, TX gage:
39.0 ft (July 2, 1932)
37.72 ft (July 17, 1987)
34.29 ft (July 4, 2025)
17.93 ft (November 11, 2000)
17.73 ft (October 28, 1996)
The Kerrville gage rose from 1.82 ft at 5:15 am to a peak of 34.29 ft at 6:45 am or 32.47 ft in 1.5 hrs.
With the number of fatalities surpassing 80 on Sunday, this TX flood event appears to be the deadliest non-tropical flood event in American history since the 1979 Big Thompson Canyon Flood in Colorado which claimed 144 lives.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District