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Snake Diggity

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Posts posted by Snake Diggity

  1. My final update:

    USA: Harris +6

    NM Harris +5

    MI Harris +4

    PA Harris +4

    WI Harris +2

    NC Harris +2

    GA Harris +1

    AZ Harris +1

    NV Trump +0

    FL Trump +3

    TX Trump +4

    OH Trump +4

    IA Trump +4

    AK Trump +4

    Nowhere else will be within 5.  Senate will be 49D-51R with Murkowski and Collins sharing the Manchin role.  Cruz +3.  House will be 220 D - 215 R.

    We will be surprised how little violence there will be prior to the inauguration.  We are getting expanded Medicare and people will get money for childcare.  Ukraine will survive long enough to settle back to 2014 borders.  Putin will be dead within 3 years.  Israel will relax.  Inflation will continue to be above 2.5%; that is the new normal for awhile.  Bitcoin price will tank.  Trump will continue to be involved in politics but only as a hired gun to juice turnout in rural areas in close elections and as a talking head on TV, and of course, on constant tour continuing to grift; he will die at age 87.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  2. 19 minutes ago, Lidig8r said:

    Gents... embrace every day that you wake up on the right side of the dirt.

    For many reasons, I am out of the eating disorders/mental health communities.  Too much vice. Too much corruption.  When a patient in an eating disorder treatment center is raped, and that treatment center is trying to cover it up and no other corporate owned treatment center (which absolutely knows about the incident) ... does nothing... NOTHING.. well... that is too much.

    http://adadsjourneywitheatingdisorders.home.blog/2024/10/30/life-and-death/

     

    If I’d gone through what you’ve gone through, I would not have handled it as well.  Good luck to you.  I’m so sorry you lost your daughter.  

    • Like 2
  3. 1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

    I agree IF it's a close election. But if Trump keeps Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and at least one of Arizona/Nevada blue AND helps turn North Carolina blue and gives Dems an unexpected Senate seat somewhere, there's going to be a reckoning between GOP leadership and the Republican power brokers. The GOP was able to jump right back on the Trump train in 2022--after if became abundantly clear that no one gave a fuck about Ron DeSantis--because, if you squint, the 2020 election was pretty close, and Biden was wildly unpopular at the time.

    There's a reason why the made Trump wait until after the midterms to announce though. They realize that Trump is poison to their election chances, so if this election proves once and for that he--and his approved cronies--absolutely cannot win in purple states, then something will have to change.

    But I think it will be close on Tuesday and they'll take the Senate, so, yeah, we're stuck with Trump as the party until he dies.

    I think for the GOP to fully turn on Trump they’ll have to see a path to winning elections without him, and I just don’t see how that happens.  There’s not a meaningful part of the Democrat base the GOP could take without diminishing their existing base; essentially, getting married to the racists won them the 2016 presidency but it put them in a tough spot once that fully played out.  If (huge if) Harris cruises to 320+ EV, I don’t see any way the GOP wins the presidency before 2036 unless the Democrats fuck up big time.

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
  4. I believe Bitcoin’s value will eventually be destroyed by 1 of 2 events:

    1. A hack that destroys holders’ faith in the ledger.  I’m not knowledgeable about blockchain.  I’ve spoken to a shitload of Bitcoin evangelists but none of them know shit about how blockchain or the bitcoin code changes actually work.  I’ve spoken to 1 person who I would consider knowledgeable about blockchain and he was pretty ambivalent about Bitcoin and said nothing is 100% secure.

    2. Legislation by the US government if/when it becomes a threat to the viability of the US dollar.  The US is not going to tolerate Bitcoin actually undermining the Dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency.  They will use their economic, military, and political might to destroy it if they need to.

     

    It may take years, but I consider one of those two outcomes inevitable.  (FWIW I own a small amount of bitcoin but not as a meaningful investment or significant % of my net worth.)

  5. 28 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

    I won't answer for Snake, but I'll stay engaged to the point I research issues and candidates before I vote.  But I never want to be THIS engaged in politics every again in my life.

    Yep.  I’ll still stay engaged enough to be an informed voter.  But I won’t be paying attention to polls, spending hours everyday poring over predictions and scenarios, and thinking that if things don’t go my way the whole fucking world is gonna end.

    • Hook 'Em 4
  6. 1 hour ago, immamac said:

    I want to know who the new Trump voters are. No one has explained that to me. 

    There’s no logical path to Trump getting more votes than his opponent.  But that’s been the case since the beginning.  I know a dude who voted Clinton and Biden who has become a gun nut in the last few years.  He’s (almost certainly) voting Trump.  And there’s some number of people who were willing to vote for a white male Democrat in 2020 who will not be willing to vote for a brown female Democrat in 2024.  I don’t think it’s a very large number.  I expect Harris to win by a wider margin than Biden did.  But American politics has defied logic and reason for going on a decade now.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Rage+1 1
  7. On 10/26/2024 at 4:24 PM, HellesBier said:

    The podcast was awesome, Trump is more normal and funny than any of yall want to admit, but none of it matters because our politics are identity driven. You arent changing your mind, everything they do is inherently evil including solving the FDA and food issue in America and none of this matters. Trump could solve the ME crisis and you wouldnt care and will still call him Hitler. Tell me I am wrong. I am sure all I will get in rebuttal is negs though. 

    I’m just spitballing here but maybe thinking Trump is normal and funny is more a reflection of you than anyone else.

    • Hook 'Em 6
    • Like 2
  8. 1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

    Incumbents are usually vulnerable when they can’t hit 50% and the challenger is within the margin of error. Emerson shows Cruz under 50 with a one point advantage. Prior polls show 50 or higher and significant margins. So we either have a late breaking race or an outlier poll. Not enough recent data to tell. 
     

    The issue for the 4 Democrat incumbents in the Great Lakes states is that all of the are polling under 50% consistently. Baldwin in WI has been under 50 in the last 8 polls and half of them have her between 46 and 48. I think Brown in OH hit 50 in one out of the last 8 polls. 6 of those show his support under 48%. With the advantages of incumbency, under 48 is red flashing lights with sirens thrown in. Voters know the incumbent. If half of them can’t support the devil they know, most of them will break for the challenger. 

    I would trade a Sherrod Brown loss for a Ted Cruz loss.  And I really like Sherrod Brown.

  9. 9 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

    Whenever a comedian begins their set with a tight 20 minutes on cancel culture (and a whole lot so), I always want to ask, "Who has gotten cancelled?"

    The Seinfeld dude? CK didn't get "cancelled" for his material; he got cancelled for making people watch his fat ass jerk it. Netflix is paying Chappelle 9 digits to be piss off the trans community.

    Shane Gillis is the clearest example I can think of, getting fired from SNL for a joke he made on a podcast years ago.  But that seems to have worked out pretty good for him in the end.

  10. 5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

    So even if we set aside that he's an insult comic, why would you take this job at a campaign rally? Are you hoping to broaden your MAGA listenership? I'm sure he'll get a lot of support from the shitbags out there. I just don't get why you would even entertain doing that unless you feel you're untouchable. 

    Most comedians who use edgy humor have major disdain for cancel culture, and cancel culture is associated with the left/democrats.  So some of these dudes think backing Trump is their only play.  It’s really stupid, but understandable.

    • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
  11. On 10/21/2024 at 6:29 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

    Where we at with the close races overall?  I'll try the googles but a solid majority in the Senate is another blue wall we all need to be pushing/talking about.  We know Trump has been a black hole for many Congressional R candidates...here's hoping it leads to a massive Democratic majority.  I know that's a pipedream to some but I think it's realistic with all the forces at play.  

    Dems have a slight lead in all 5 swing state races (NV, AZ, PA, WI, MI).  MT looks lost, but Texas is in play.  OH is the only one that looks like a true toss-up but you gotta think the incumbent has a slight advantage.  Right now it looks like 48-52.  Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski would be targets to play the role to stop the GOP from fucking shit up majorly.

     

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