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Snake Diggity

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Posts posted by Snake Diggity

  1. 3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

    Loperfido hit his second and third HR in the same inning.

    His k rate is too high to project him to mlb success but goddamn 9 hr in 12 g shows a pretty high level of dominance in AAA.  I say give Singleton 2-3 weeks of consistent time and if he doesn’t hit well and Loperfido keeps hitting them out then you make the move.

  2. This series sets up as a potential rebound.  Nothing about the pitching matchups favors the Rangers very heavily.  France/Dunning, Blanco/Heaney, and Javier/Eovaldi all seem winnable for Houston.  They need gutsy performances from those guys and more timely offense.  A sweep this weekend would put them at 7-10 and 0.5 games back in the division.  At that point all would be well.  Getting swept to go to 4-13 and 6 games back would be fucked up.

    I want to see Singleton play every day for the next couple of weeks.  He looked good yesterday and Abreu is clearly hapless.  Espada can spin it that he’s just giving Abreu a reset; if Abreu comes thru with a clutch pinch hit or if Singleton sucks shit, they can always go back to the $20M black hole.

  3. 3 hours ago, WBT said:

    His stock is down based on 14 games?

    Edit - didn't mean to be critical, I appreciate the exercise overall.

    It’s probably down a bit.  The return I listed doesn’t reflect a huge drop in value, but he hasn’t done himself or the Astros any favors in the early going.

    3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

    I appreciate the thought behind this, but many of these (IMO) are overvalues rarely seen outside the confines of texags.  Outside of absolute superstars, sure feels like the prospect return on baseball trades is almost always less than anticipated.

    Meh.  You’d have to give me specifics.  Otherwise you’re just being a dick.  A lot of the returns would be market dependent and obviously hinge on how each of those players perform between now and the deadline.  But really I only listed Tucker (a borderline MVP caliber player with another year of control) and Valdez (an ace with another year of control) as realistic trade candidates even bringing back Top 100 prospects.  The Org Top 10/30 types would just be guys like Pedro Leon, Joey Loperfido, Arrighetti, Whitley, etc.; those prospects aren’t that valuable and saying a player isn’t worth that is basically saying they don’t have surplus value.  Dylan Cease had less value than Framber (and a smaller market given the spring financial constraints) and he brought back 3 of SD’s top 10 prospects (from a very good farm), one of which was a Top 100 guy.

  4. Just now, Guadaloopy said:

    IT'S FUCKING APRIL 11th!

     

    Just now, David Dennison said:

    I like to overreact to clown show losses as much as the next guy, but we won't really know anything about the season until the break.

    This really, really, really sucks, though.

    I don’t think the season is lost.  I’m speculating about if this continues.  It’s damn hard to win 100 games when you start 4-10.  The odds of Houston making the playoffs have gone from like 85% on opening day to like 60% after today’s shitshow.  When that gets down to 40%, it’s time to start talking seriously about the season being lost.

  5. Trade values:

    Diaz: multiple Top 100 prospects

    Abreu: would have to buy down $30M just to get rid of him 

    Altuve: don’t even think about it

    Pena: a Top 100 prospect plus a couple org top 10 types

    Bregman: at this point it’s probably one org top 10 type; hopefully he turns it around

    Tucker: a top 100 prospect plus a couple org top 10 guys, his stock is doen since he started slow

    Meyers: an org top 10 and a throw-in

    McCormick: 2 org top 10s and a lotto

    Alvarez: don’t even think about it

    Dubon: 2 org top 30s

    Caratini: 1 org top 30 plus a lotto, may have to throw in some money

    Kessinger, Singleton: no value

    Framber: 1 top 100 type assuming his medicals clear; if he comes back healthy this could increase

    Verlander: 2 org top 10 types assuming his medicals clear; if he comes back healthy this could increase, could also increase if Houston covers salary

    Javier: 1 top 100 type plus 1 org top 10; could get another org top 10 by adding money

    France, Brown, Blanco, Garcia, Urquidy, Martinez: value unknown

    McCullers: they’d have to throw in $25M just to get rid of him 

    Bielak, Mushinski, Scott, Coleman: one lotto

    Montero: one lotto; they’d probably have to throw in some money

    Abreu: 3 org top 10 types

    Pressly: one org top 10, assuming Houston pays in some money

    Hader: Houston could get a big haul but it wild depend on how much money they paid down

     

    If the season is lost and they do rebuild, it will be much quicker than 2011-2014 and if it goes well they should contend again in 2026.

  6. 21 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

    Is it still too early to fret David? The plane is crashing in the mountain. God damn this team is pissing me off. You expect your GM to fucking be proactive and not just say “all Is well” in the face of substandard play. The Astros front office used to be led by one of the smartest men I have ever had the pleasure of meeting in person with a team of Ivy League grads backing him up. Now we have a mental midget in charge and have gutted the analytical brains of the operation in favor of traditional baseball guys who use their gut. That’s why the foundation of this dynasty is crumbling and the championship window is being closed shut. 

    What do you expect Dana Brown to say?  “We’re fucked!  Our rookie manager is cursed with every move he makes blowing up in his face, our payroll is maxed out with bad contracts put in place by our meddling owner, our farm system is trash due to cheating punishments and trades forced by the meddling owner, and we have 9 pitchers on the injured list!  WHAT THE FUCK DO YOU EXPECT ME TO DO?!?!?”

    The 9 losses have come from an array of causes.  Early on it was elite relievers melting down.  Lately it’s been starters not giving the team a chance, and all along the offense has been hitting extremely well but not scoring runs in the highest leverage situations.

    The team could get a big morale boost if/when Verlander comes back healthy.  But so far this is an expected 7-5 team that had luck fuck em in the ass.

    • Hook 'Em 5
  7. They pretty clearly aren’t using Kessinger, although the Altuve/Bregman/Pena will need more frequent days off than they’ve gotten so far.  But if (BIG if given he has a 38% k rate in AAA) the FO believes in Loperfido, they could bring him up to replace Singleton and have him in a strict 1B platoon with Abreu, but also give Loperfido time in LF and RF, which would make him closer to an everyday player.  Dubin would be the backup at the other 4 spots which over the 2nd half would also be a near-everyday role.  Kessinger would continue to rot on the bench.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  8. 2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

    I wonder what his funeral will look like. If you're, say, Obama, how hard would that be to even attend and attempt to put on a sad face? Does Hillary have to go with Bill? 

    No one with any integrity is attending that piece of shit’s funeral.  His damn kids probably won’t even attend.

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  9. 1 hour ago, kevwun said:

    Do Blanco and France still have options?  They could send either of them down if the timing works out in an emergency.

    Brown, Blanco, and France all have options.  They could be optioned to skip a turn in the rotation and get another relief arm once JV comes back and the prep to switch to a 6 man rotation.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  10. 3 hours ago, WBT said:

    So what happens when France comes back Saturday?  Apparently Miguel Diaz doesn't have any options.

    Martinez and Mushinski both have options remaining.  My guess is either Mushinski will be sent down or they’ll DFA Diaz and hope he passes thru waivers.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  11. 4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

    I don't think RFK is stealing voters from Biden. Or at least he is stealing more voters for Trump than voters for Biden. The vast majority of people that would end up voting for RFK would have either voted for Trump or stayed home. 

     

    5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    Timely article on who RFK's folks are.  I like these sentences: if RFK is seen as the "outsider" for guys that were in search of outsiders up to now, that sounds like a formula for getting Trump voters (and indeed, this guy was a Trump voter)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/opinion/rfk-movement-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.h00.UK1q.wpto01N8q5Yt&smid=url-share

    Anecdotally, there is only 1 RFK sign in my neighborhood, and it replaced a Trump sign.

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Prepare your anus 1
  12. 13 minutes ago, kevwun said:

    You guys keep talking about the playoffs and that's not what I'm worried about.  The season is long and you can't get through it with 3 guys you trust.  They will get run in to the ground.  You need guys who can eat up appearances without shitting all over themselves.

    Martinez and Montero have very good pedigrees for guys who would be the 4th and 5th best RP on the roster.  No team has 4+ guys with projections to be fully reliable in high leverage.  If we are “worried” about 3-4 weeks of having to filter thru fringey arms to find who sticks as the 6th and 7th best RP, what that really means is there’s nothing to worry about.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  13. 22 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

    I can never remember a team making so many waiver claims. 

    IMG_7627.jpeg

    Astros taking advantage of openings on their 40 man due to their shallow farm and long term injuries to take flyers on castoffs.  It’s a good strategy.  Hummel can be optioned and is probably a better 3rd C than Salazar and Diaz is an Interesting arm who will be put on the 60 day IL.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. 1 hour ago, kevwun said:

    They're going to have to get a couple of middle relievers at the trade deadline.  I am assuming Hader, Abreu and Pressly pull their heads out of their asses.

    Which RP doesn’t belong on a playoff roster, assuming a rotation of Framber/JV/Javier/Brown:

    Hader

    Pressly

    Abreu

    Montero

    Garcia (when healthy-June)

    McCullers (when healthy-Aug)

    Blanco

    France

    Urquidy

    And thats assuming Arrighetti and no other pitching prospects emerge.  Unless somebody gets hurt (which is very likely), their staff will be stacked.  They may go out and add a RP but it’ll be a luxury.

    The only spot I’m worried about on Houston’s roster is 1B.  If Abreu doesn’t come back to life they will need to do something.  If the Marlins sell they have 3 guys who could fit the bill in varying ways; Arraez would be a huge add, Burger would be a sleeper add, Bell would be a Mancini type add.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  15. 34 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

    I don't think kids spend as much time learning to actually write vs using a keyboard.   My youngest was never taught cursive and even 3 years into college his handwriting is about like a 4th grader.  But then lots of kids his age are at the same level.  But he can hammer out texts on a phone in record time.

    Another thing that is weighing on this generation is actually finding something they can do as a career that isn't destined to be impacted to some degree by AI or robotics.  That also leads to pretty much everyone already in the workforce too.  The old ways of doing things are rapidly changing, and the valuation of what an individual can bring to society will have to change.  Humans have the capacity to produce and that's what has given purpose to our lives for centuries.   But what happens when that production is done more efficiently by robots or AI systems?   Then what do humans do with their time?  What do they have coming in to support themselves and their families?  

    Or do we scale back from the efficiency of those systems in order to keep humans viable?   All this plays into the apathy too for a lot of these kids.  A shrinking job market, no company loyalty, unaffordable housing, etc.  

    Education, healthcare, and trades careers all should be relatively safe from AI.  Manufacturing, tech, retail, and transportation are doomed.  Rather than UBI, a 30 hour work week is where I would start to mitigate the downside of the societal change, but it has to be paired with universal healthcare and a dramatic increase in minimum wage.

  16. Not concerned about college kids as long as the schools don’t change degree standards.

    For school aged kids, I’d want to see the breakdown of who (rich vs poor) and why (sick, vacation, etc.).  Generally speaking I don’t think rich kids missing school really hurts them.  Poor kids need to be in school as much as possible.

    I think attitudes about work/school are changing pretty dramatically.  Some of that is healthy (getting away from the “live to work” mentality), some of it is not (removing the dignity of work and not holding people accountable for their behavior).  To a degree I think we are still unwinding the impact of the pandemic and it make take another 2-3 years to see the new normal and start to have data about the outcomes.

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