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Snake Diggity

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Posts posted by Snake Diggity

  1. 10 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

    Not sure this is accurate. SCOWI for example is no longer under GOP

     

    6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Yeah that one that is wrong. Michigan Supreme Court is also 4-3 Dem and one of the GOP is not running this year 

    I was taking all that from ballotpedia.  Looks like their SC data is wonky.

  2. State govt GOP control of swing states:

    PA: Senate

    WI: House, Senate, Supreme Court

    MI: Supreme Court

    GA: House, Senate, Governor, Supreme Court

    AZ: House, Senate, Supreme Court

    NV: Governor 

     

    Georgia is the only swing state where the GOP controls all 4, and Kemp hates Trump, so it’s unlikely shenanigans go easy for them even there.

  3. 5 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

    And he didn't even write it. Some ghostwriter hack did. Can you imagine if Trump actually did attempt to write something? Oof.

    It’s an easy/quick read, which I assume was partially Trump’s influence.  That’s about its only non-negative trait.  There’s not a single insightful point about business nor a single humanizing anecdote about Trump’s life.  If you come away from that book thinking anything positive about Trump, you’re a rube.

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  4. I read The Art of the Deal in 2007 during a binge of biographies I was going through.  I was moderately interested in Trump, mostly because I knew nothing about him and figured there had to be more to him than the person I’d seen on Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous in the 80s or on his reality shows in the aughts.  I got thru that book and blew a raspberry, thinking “that dude is nothing but an attention-starved trust fund baby who was born into enough capital to buy fame and purchase an unearned reputation.  A bankrupt business genius.”  It’s why I never ever considered him a serious threat to the presidency and figured if he did win he’d be totally uninterested in actually doing anything.  I totally underestimated how dangerous he was.  But this entire last 9 years I have been very confident that his flaws will undo him, as they have multiple times throughout his life; it’s just a matter of time.  I don’t know if that’s actually happening now, with apparent dwindling enthusiasm for his style, money and legal problems, and age-related decline. I’m scared to bank on it.  But it will happen, eventually.  And it will be very satisfying for me to watch. 

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  5. 26 minutes ago, Goredho said:

    Well, shit, this in the bag.  I guess I can stay home in November.

    To me the wildcard is the nation states that benefit from a weakened U.S. with the means to influence the election. Obviously led by Russia.

     The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee investigation submitted the first in their five-volume 1,313-page report in July 2019. The committee concluded that the January 2017 intelligence community assessment alleging Russian interference was "coherent and well-constructed". The first volume also concluded that the assessment was "proper", learning from analysts that there was "no politically motivated pressure to reach specific conclusions". The final and fifth volume, which was the result of three years of investigations, was released in August 2020,[8] ending one of the United States "highest-profile congressional inquiries".[9][10] The Committee report found that the Russian government had engaged in an "extensive campaign" to sabotage the election in favor of Trump, which included assistance from some of Trump's own advisers.[9] 

    A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee[161] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.[162] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.[163] The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.[162]

    Russia's path to victory in the Ukraine is through Donald Trump and conservative congress members that would stymie aid to Zelensky and leave NATO without a super-power's teeth.  They are going to go for broke in influencing this election, and as we've seen, you don't have to tilt the odds nationwide, just in a relatively small number of swing counties in a relatively small number of swing states.

    There are a few things working in Trump’s favor:

     

    Foreign influence: Russia, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, and Iran all stand to benefit from a Trump presidency.  Thought: why aren’t NATO countries meddling in our election the opposite direction to cancel them out?

    Passion: Trump has fewer supporters than Biden but they are far more passionate about him.  His base is more solid, and they are willing to do more (including breaking the law) to help him win.

    Electoral college: Regardless of the overall numbers, there are only 6-7 states that matter.  Expanding the margins in safe blue states is meaningless.  Biden could lead the popular vote by 10 million votes but still lose if GA, AZ, and MI/WI don’t go his way.

    Supreme Court: this is less certain but a conservative court probably works in Trump’s favor if they end up deciding the election.

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  6. 47 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    Cabbage and Hensley sent packing to minor league camp. Loperfido still hanging in there.

    With Kessinger hurt, Julks is likely to make the roster.  Very hard to see Joey Lopes making the roster.  If an everyday guy gets hurt he might be first in line though.

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  7. 57 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

    I would caution anyone from misreading “price” as “value”.  Values, for the most part, don’t appear to have fallen by much in the aggregate (just my opinion, but I think homes in the $1m-$1.5m or so aren’t moving and that’s probably the weakest part of the demand curve).  

    Anecdotally I can confirm this.  I have 3 homes in Austin.  The 2 in the $350k-$500k range have recent comps that show their prices are continuing to go up or are at least stable.  My other property is in the $600k-$900k range and the asking prices for similar homes has come down a bit, but not 20% down from peak.  My guess is that 20-25% decrease is coming from the homes in the $900k-$2M range.

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  8. 8 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

    The #Astros released the following Minor Leaguers today:

    RHP Jimmy Endersby
    RHP Austin Hansen
    RHP Peyton Plumlee
    RHP Jonathan Sprinkle
    RHP Austin Temple
    RHP Derek West
    C Sandro Gaston
    C Freddy Guilamo
    C Carlos Hurtado
    3B Justin Williams
    SS Ricardo Balogh
    SS Tim Borden II

    A few more guys not on that list were also released.  No major surprises although Dauri Lorenzo was an intl top 30 prospect when he signed so I figured he’d get another year of development.  Gaston, Balogh, and Borden all showed potential at one point but it’s not shocking to see them cut loose.  I am hoping to see some aggressive assignments in 2 weeks, especially in Fayetteville, as there’s a handful of teenage position players who have some of the highest ceilings in the Astros system (Jaworsky, Hernandez, Luciano, Gomez, Huezo, Ochoa).

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  9. 21 hours ago, Parliament said:

    Saying this out loud just so I can remind myself.  We need to work on our friendships and get to the point where we can pick on the phone, any time, say, "How are you doing?  I'm worried about you," and get a candid, "I'm SO glad you called.  Yeah I'm not doing well at all."  

    Coworkers too.  The fact is we have coworkers who spend almost as many waking hours with us than they do with any family.  We need to try to get in well enough with coworkers they're comfortable enough to call us when they see it's necessary.

    I struggle with this topic.  On the one hand, of course we should all be more supportive of each other and people going through mental health problems should have people close to them that they always feel comfortable reaching out to in order to get thru their tough moments.  But on the other hand, people with serious mental health issues can be exhausting.  I have had friends going through problems that seem like they need neverending support.  It has made me very skittish about reaching out to people I’m worried about, because I feel like I’m just asking to get used up.  I have suffered from depression and suicidal ideation off and on (mostly on) for decades.  When I was young I didn’t feel badly about reaching out to friends or my brothers or my mom for someone to talk to.  But in middle age I realize how busy every one is and how burdened everyone is with their own problems, and so there’s a lot of guilt about using up other people’s time and energy.

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  10. Just now, atomheartbevo said:

    Is he on any ballots for November? And his supporters sound an awful lot like the types of past voters who were never going to vote for a major party candidate. People who wouldn’t bother to even show up and vote unless a third party candidate they liked was on the ballot.  

    Toss in his batshit conspiracy theories that play well to the Qanon idiots and these people were probably never going to vote for Biden. And maybe not even Trump.  

    He’s already got the signatures to be on it in AZ and GA.

  11. 3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    First off, you're going to have cite your work that RFK is pulling from Biden and not Trump.  Because Trump is much more worried about RFK Jr. than Biden is.

    And 2-3% is likely.  It was 1.85% in 2020.  2016 was 5% but I highly doubt it will be that high again.  I think 2-3% is likely, but not seeing anything that anti-vax nutjob RFK Jr. is pulling from Biden. 

    There’s definitely question as to RFK’s specific impact.  Registered democrats have a more unfavorable view of him but I don’t think those voters make up the double haters.  My guess is that the double haters are mostly former Republicans who Trump has turned away. 

  12. 7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    Wild ass guess, assumption with no supporting evidence, ergo point proven. 

    Hard to argue with that. 

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-04/2024-presidential-election-s-key-voters-hate-both-trump-biden?embedded-checkout=true
     

    That article pegs it at 3-5%.  You can google “double haters” and see pretty easily that it’s not a “wild ass guess” in terms of % of electorate and who they break for.

  13. Probably 2-3% (maybe more) of general election voters are absolutely desperate to vote for anyone other than Biden or Trump.  Those voters will break toward Biden if there is no 3rd party candidate.  In that way, any 3rd party candidate, including RFK Jr., will take away votes from Biden.

  14. 11 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

    This is the type of move that teams that are serious about winning the WS make. They try to put real MLB players on their bench.

    If they want to upgrade over Singleton they’d be better off signing Brandon Belt who is still a free agent.  He’s a better complement to Abreu and a better defensive 1B and a better option to have on the bench to pinch hit.

    The only way Davis makes sense for Houston is on an extremely cheap multiyear deal where he can serve as a stopgap 3B between Bregman and whoever ends up being the long term solution (Dezenzo).

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  15. 3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    My assertion of more upside is:

    • 2022 in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia (Senate), Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania were not indicative of a state leaning back the other way.  Nevada was the only state that elected a GOP governor, but that was a very local issue, not federal (COVID restrictions by the Dem governor) - Dems maintained the other row offices and their Senate seat.
    • GOP parties in Michigan, Georgia, Arizona are a fucking mess
    • Non-competitive Senate nominees in NV, WI, MI, PA so far.  AZ is re-nominating a loser from 2022.
    • Special election results since Dobbs

    It's also very early.  People are finally realizing it's going to be Biden v Trump.  But even then, people won't be tuning in until August.

    But Biden won all those states in 2020.  Sure, we can hope the margins aren’t as close, but there’s no upside there in terms of EVs.

  16. 3 hours ago, Rimbo said:

    There is absolutely zero evidence to support this.

    Unless you're hiding something or helping it a secret.

     

    28 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

    Look, don't get ad ignoratum on me again, trying to flip this back on me to try and produce evidence countering your claim.

    You made a claim with no evidence. I'm asking YOU to show YOUR work. I've already shown you mine.

    Relax, lil’ fella. My comment wasn’t in response to anything you said.  I quoted your response to me.  You didn’t show shit.  But since you asked, here’s the margin in 2020 of the closest states:

    Blue states most at risk to flip red in 2024:

    AZ, GA, WI: <1%

    PA: <2%

    NV, MI: <3%

    Red states most at risk to flip blue in 2024:

    NC <2%

    FL <4%

    No other red states were within 5 points in 2020.

    Now you tell me how there’s more upside than downside for Biden vs 2020.

  17. 1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

    There is absolutely zero evidence to support this.

    Unless you're hiding something or helping it a secret.

    Are you saying you think the odds are high that Biden will achieve a larger EV victory than he did in 2020?  Which states that went red in 2020 do you think are actually in play for Biden in 2024?

  18. 23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    I know everyone is most concerned about Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.   The one I do not see flipping back, at all, is Arizona.  First off, Dems swept into power there in 2022 with governor, AG, SOS + Mark Kelly winning again in a more favorable GOP environment.  The GOP has the most odious and unlikeable Senate candidate in big loser Kari Lake who is going to drag down the GOP slate there. 

    Biden can lose WI + GA (which I doubt he loses both) and still win with 277. 

    And let's recall - Wisconsin re-elected Evers and Johnson *barely* won in 2022 + flipping the state supreme court in 2023 and the Wisconsin legislature is finally unfucked and totally and completely competitive for the first time in decades.  Democrats have a reason to vote in Wisconsin.  

    And I will not even entertain Michigan or Pennsylvania.  Big Gretch is not going to let Biden lose Michigan and the suburbs of PA are long fucking gone for the GOP.  

    I am not too worried about PA and I figure if Michigan goes then it probably means GA, AZ, and WI are even further gone.

    Trump won in 2016 and was very fucking close to winning in 2020 despite all logic.  We can point all we want to “why” Biden should easily win those swing states, but Trump has shown that obvious logic often does not apply to his outcomes.

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  19. There seems to be more downside vs 2020 than upside.  Which states can be reasonably expected that will turn blue in 2024 vs 2020?  North Carolina, maybe? Ohio and Iowa and Florida and Texas are the next closest states and they don’t seem all that close.  On the other side, Trump’s path is pretty clear: repeat 2020 but flip Georgia, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Michigan.  That may not be likely, but a Trump victory seems an awful lot more possible than a Biden landslide.

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  20. 10 hours ago, Rimbo said:

    and i didn't even start on the abortion thing

    tldr: the Republican party is dead and unable to win on the national level any more; it just hasn't realized it yet

    I hope you are right but refuse to believe it until we have some proof.  If what you said is true then Biden should waltz to 310+ EV in November.

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