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Snake Diggity

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Posts posted by Snake Diggity

  1. 18 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Nature >>> nurture

    Yes, I know.  There’s a shitload of reasons beyond my control that my kids are achieving at different levels; genetics, birth order, luck of other forms (it seems like my older one has gotten much better teachers than my younger one).  But I am just terrified that if my kid gets a bad outcome that I will be left feeling like I didn’t do everything I could to prevent it.  Im determined to leave it all on the court so to speak.  Even though I know what I can actually control is very limited.

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  2. I gotta brag on my oldest (9).  Had parent teacher conferences this afternoon.  Her teacher said “Your child is not only the brightest child I have ever taught, she is also the most well rounded.  She is kind to others, funny, and the other children all look to her for how to behave.  She is always the first to reach out to include a child who is being left out or comfort a child who is upset.  And her standardized tests show she is a full 2 grade levels ahead.”  It felt extremely good to hear something that validating.  I feel a shitload of pressure to keep her on track to reach her potential and not fuck her up.

    Thats juxtaposed against my youngest (6), whose teacher said “your child is enormously cute and kind to others, but she is the most stubborn child I’ve ever taught (teacher only has taught 2 years).  She almost never obeys instructions on the first try and despite testing well above average in both reading and math, acts as if she knows nothing about either when it’s time to do work in class.  She seems impossible to motivate.”  Which felt terrible because none of it was surprising to hear and I feel at least some of it can be traced back to my own parenting failures, mostly that we just haven’t given the younger one the amount of 1:1 attention and consistent discipline that we gave her older sister.  I’m determine to do the work to course correct but it is going to be hard.

    This shit is hard and always such a mixed bag.

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  3. Don’t get me wrong, I’d be fuckin HYPE if I had 120k fall into my lap.  But the main thing that strikes me is that a 6 figure windfall wouldn’t materially change my life.  Wouldn’t add any major luxury or experience and wouldn’t change my retirement timeline/budget much if at all.  Inflation and lifestyle creep are motherfuckers.

  4. 1 minute ago, Js1 said:

    WSJ:

    Arizona, Harris +2
    Michigan, Harris +2
    Georgia, Harris +1
    Wisconsin, Harris +1
    NC, Trump +1
    PA, Trump +1
    NV, Trump +5 (lol just stop polling this state, you people have no idea how to do it) 

    Funky path to 278, but that is over 270

    Also, SHOCKING - margin of 1 or 2 in every swing state, how unsurprising.

    Why is PA polling so close?  Scary shit.

  5. 12 hours ago, irishtexan said:

    Does anyone have a good volunteering resource? 

    I've had an absolute shit year. One year ago I did some stupid shit and got drunk and said some jealous petty bullshit to my life-long best friend, and now we no longer speak to each other. Totally my fault. I don't blame him for not speaking to me, but I am very sad that he won't accept my apology. The end of that friendship feels like a mini-death.

    Last April I was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and that was a fairly significant disruption of my lifestyle. I've had to change how I eat, exercise, and generally live my life. It's actually required me to eat and live healthier, but it's still a degenerative disease that I will have to manage for the rest of my life.

    Then a month ago, after 13 years with the company, I got laid off. The company was purchased two years ago and after a constant reorg, they eliminated my position (along with another co-worker in our department). I worked in a very niche and highly-specialized industry, so there aren't a lot of jobs for which I'm readily-qualified. I'm probably looking at some sort of career change at 46, which is terrifying. Looking for a new job has been a soul crushing kick to the dick.

    I'm drinking too much. I need to reconcile the reasons that I drink too much and better understand the "why". My drinking has negatively impacted my life a few times (see best-friend above) and that cannot continue to happen. I am going to read the book cited above "this naked mind" and intentionally address my relationship with alcohol. It's time.

    This has all taken a heavy toll on my mental health, and subsequently my interpersonal relationships. My mother pulled me aside this weekend and said "what's going on with you? you're not well. I've never seen you this sad and angry." My wife has been distant. While all of this stuff has "happened" to me, it's also impacted her, and I need to be more empathetic of that, but it's difficult to do so when I've constantly been "woe is me"-ing for the last year. 

    I go to a therapist but I'm finding that it's not particularly productive. I'm not one to go into therapy and fully unload in a way that's honest, transparent, and forthright. She's not picking up on the context clues I'm giving her, the conversation isn't organic, so we just kind of go in circles. I know I need to find a new therapist, but I keep going to this one for now because I know that I need accountability of self-reflection every other week. But my insurance runs out at the end of the month and with the money well drying up here shortly, I likely won't be able to afford a good one out-of-pocket. 

    So anyway, with all this time I have, I think it's a good idea to do some volunteer work with people who are in need. My hope is that it will provide some perspective and allow me to focus more on the things in my life for which I should be grateful rather than obsessing on the negative things that have happened to me over the last year. So if anyone has a specific place they volunteer and recommend, please PM me. Or if you have a general resource that can provide a few options, let me know.

     

    If you’re good with kids, Big Brothers Big Sisters is very rewarding.  The kids in that program are awesome kids but have a life that will make you grateful.  Being a CASA advocate is also very important, rewarding work (but I’ve heard it can be depressing).  Any elementary school will have programs that will let you volunteer to help tutor kids, help teachers with administrative work, and any number of things, just call the school closest to your house.

    If you can cook, sign up to cook a meal at the Ronald McDonald House once a month.  
     

    If you’re an animal person, call your local animal shelter.  They could definitely use your help walking/training dogs and cleaning up after them, among other things.

    If you’re handy, Habitat for Humanity.

    If you’re into the outdoors, call your local Parks dept and I’m sure they’ll have something you can help with.

    I would also caution to temper expectations.  If you’re depressed, volunteering can be a really good thing but it also might not help at all if the real problems are internal.  But volunteering can definitely help you have a sense of purpose and gratitude, and those are really important for treating depression.

    My big 7 to pay attention to: sleep, diet, exercise, gratitude, purpose, companionship, joy, sunlight.

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  6. 2 hours ago, landman said:

    Aggy math??

    Are you the Aggy?

    If the margin was 215k votes, one voter switching from Cruz to Allred makes the margin 2 less (plus 1 for Allred, minus 1 for Cruz); a voter switching from Cruz to staying home reduces the margin by 1 (minus 1 for Cruz, no difference for Allred).  So in my hypothetical, where there’s a remaining difference of 150k, 50k switching parties reduces the difference by 100k.  I pulled all the numbers out of my ass, but the math works (I think…I’m fuckin elderly and make mistakes).

  7. 9 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

    Yeah.

    its really easy to sit here and say they should have used more AAA arms earlier in the season but give me a break.

    Hey Espada, why did you put in that AAA trash to try and hold the lead?

    ”well, you see, I need Hader and Abreu fresh for October.”

    Hey Espada, there won’t be any October if you don’t put in Hader/Abreu to close out these close games.

     

    King (2.39 era in Houston) and Ort (2.55 era in Houston) easily could have taken almost all of the 6th/7th innings that Espada used Abreu in that caused Abreu and Hader to go more than 1 inning and pitch so frequently.  Neither of those guys is AAA trash.

  8. 13 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

    He's not getting that. He showed up for 2-1/2 months out of 6. His BB% was abysmal and he's already shown signs of losing what little athleticism he had. Last year proved that non generational players are now seen as a dime a dozen.

    He was a $40M player this season.  He will get well over $150M.  My guess is he gets something like $180M/6yrs with bonuses or vesting years that take it to $200M.

    Theres always the chance his elbow or back or hammy tank his medicals or teams just don’t have the money.  But I will be really surprised if he takes a long term deal with no opt outs for less than $170M.

  9. Take 2018 results. 215k difference.

    65k Cruz voters died from old age and covid.  150k difference.

    50k suburban 2018 Cruz women vote Allred because of Roe overturned.  50k difference.

    25k new black voters turn out for Allred.  25k difference.

    50k Beto latinos stay home.  75k difference. lol.

    25k anti-Trump voters turn out for Allred. 50k difference.

    25k new gen z voters turn out for Allred.  25k difference.

     

    Allred isn’t going to win.  But there’s a version of this where the shit is really really fucking close.

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  10. 35 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

    He’s been with the team for nine seasons.  He already extended once.  He did a deal to buy out his arbitration years and extend for two seasons.  If Bregs wants to acknowledge reality as a player who will be 31 before opening day, there’s a chance the Astros can make a deal.  If he chooses to live in Boras fantasy land and believe that someone is going to guarantee a contract until after he turns 40, then he’s welcome to float that on the market.  Good luck.  

    If Bregman were willing to take $150M or less then he’d already have signed.  He’s looking for $200M+ and I don’t know if he’ll get it or not but I will be very very surprised if he signs with Houston.

  11. I would bet money on any of these players being Houston’s 2025 opening day 3B before I’d bet on Bregman:

    Mauricio Dubon

    Jake Burger

    Shay Whitcomb 

    Zach Dezenzo

    Donovan Solano

    Gio Urshela

    Jeimer Candelario

    Bregman had 7 years to work out a deal with Houston.  He’s already posted a goodbye tweet and sold his house in Houston.  He gone.

  12. 1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

    Watching Clase come into the game in the 8th with 2 on, knowing you fully intend on him pitching the 9th, felt very much like an Espada decision. I know it's the playoffs, but changing things up probably isn't the best idea to do to your closer who only pitched more than 1 inning one time all year.  He proceeded to blow the game, but it reminded me of several instances where they did the same thing to Hader. 

    Yeah the Astros riding Abreu and Hader so hard all year was odd.  It might be only another 10 pitches, but going down and getting back up is a huge shift in routine, and 40 pitches is a lot more than 30 in terms of % especially including the additional warm up.  A lot of that was dictated by the SP injuries and underperformance early in the season but I felt like they could have managed it better by being more active in shuffling in fresh arms from AAA.  King, Ort, Mushinski, Whitley, Hernandez, Contreras, and Suero should have all gotten more time in Houston and eaten some of those innings to keep Hader/Abreu fresher and more in their standard routine.

    I bet we will see a lot fewer multi-inning efforts from Hader next year.

  13. 8 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

    I should sound like someone who’s got a non-insignificant amount of personal wealth chained to a bunch of assholes that don’t care about a company or project, only how long they can extend their employment. Sabotage of equipment not uncommon. Sabotage of the works not uncommon. Whatever it takes to extend their ride a bit longer - who gives a fuck about the company you’re working for - I bought a book, where is mine?    I hate sending our skilled travelers home but that is easily overshadowed by getting to layoff the local leeches and sending them back to the unemployment line.  I wouldn’t feel this way if even 20% were just decent people instead of scum of the earth thieves and cheats.  

    Your wealth is not significant lil fella.

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  14. 9 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

    And according to bWAR he was the 33rd most valuable player in all of baseball, and it's interesting you mentioned that he was 20th ranked SS in fWAR but that put him at 71st in all of baseball. Nice use of statistics to tell your side of the story. I never said he was a star, but we aren't missing Correa with him at SS either, and was the main offensive reason we won a title in 2022.

    There’s no argument that Pena is an adequate replacement for Correa in a vacuum. For 3 of his 7 seasons in Houston, Correa was one of the 4 best SS in the game; for the others, he was still more valuable than Pena has ever been.  Pena has been fine and Houston has continued to win with him at SS, but that’s because of how incredible Yordan and Tucker (and to a lesser degree Altuve and Bregman) have been in making up the difference.  
     

    Pena was actually the 87th most valuable position player in the league (fwar, all players), putting him in a group with such studs as…Miguel Rojas, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Smith, and Jonathan India.

    He’s a good player; an exactly average hitter who fields the toughest position on the field at an above average level.  But he’s not somebody keeping the window open, he’s a significant downgrade from Correa, and he’s at the age and experience where we can’t expect him to be more than that.  You can say we haven’t missed Correa, but I think this teams fortunes sure would have been different this season if they’d had Correa instead of Pena.
     

    Last thought that is worth mentioning: Pena has been excellent against LHP.  He is a star level player against lefties.  But he’s a league average SS against RHP.

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  15. 1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

    You are underrating Pena big time here. He's not seen as the same as Correa, but has outproduced him in WAR 12.9 to 10.4 over the last 3 years.

    The biggest flaw in Pena's offense is his BB%, which is fixable. Likely with a different hitting coaches than the Astros currently have, those two guys saw regression across the board, they should be fired for it.

    He also had the 5th most chances among SSs in baseball and all their fielding percentages where in the same ballpark, except Tovar who had an incredible defensive season.

    Pena is 1800 pa into his career and is an exactly league average hitter.  His defense regressed for the 2nd consecutive season.  He is a good, valuable player, but he is not a star; he was the 20th most valuable SS in the league this season (fwar).   True contenders have a guy like Pena as their 7th or 8th best hitter and 5th or 6th most valuable position player.  Guys like that supplement an open competitive window, they don’t keep it open.

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  16. 20 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

    We really need two from the following list to become a dependable MLB caliber players ala Pena or Diaz.

    Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Melton, and Matthews.

    Reality is that if Houston wants to contend after next season, they need at least one legit superstar prospect to emerge or 2-3 stars to emerge.  As good as Pena and Diaz are, they are nowhere near as valuable as Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Springer and Alvarez were when they came up.  Houston needs a guy in that tier to develop if they wanna withstand losing Framber and Tucker, unless Crane goes full Cohen.

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  17. I did a quick Pareto analysis of the surplus value of the organizational roster going into 2017 vs 2025.  Here’s a summary:

    1. The 2025 org has much less payroll flexibility, even if they have comparable total surplus value.

    2. The 2017 org had significantly more surplus value in its MLB lineup, but the 2025 org makes up for almost all of that with more surplus value in its MLB pitching staff.  In total, the difference at the big league level amounts to one really good player under cheap long term control.

    3. The difference in the farm systems boils down to 2-3 elite prospects.  The depth is very comparable (with the benefit of hindsight).  2017 had Tucker, Alvarez, Framber, and Javier in the system, but at that point only Tucker was thought of as an elite prospect.  2017 was a highly rated farm, but many of the top prospects like Francis Martes, Forrest Whitley, David Paulino, Derek Fisher, and others didn’t pan out.

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  18. 2 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

    I’m almost completely sold on the 2025 rebuild and let Dana do what he does best and cash in on Framber, Tucker and Pressly trades on the offseason.

    Those three should bring back a substantial haul of very near-MLB ready talent combined with some close to sure fire young MiLB prospects and possibly a lotto ticket or two.

    hell, see if anyone will bite on Montero if we eat the contract in exchange of a low-A type lottery ticket. 

    play your cards right and you’re not much different, on paper, than the Tigers this year. And combined with playing in the AL West there should be a realistic chance of winning the division even without those three. 
     

    The gravy on top for all of us that have been along for this entire run is that it lowers the expectations. Call it loser /Mack Brown “too much winning is bad for you” talk if you want but I think I’d welcome a season of tuning in and just enjoying the games, not expecting us to win every single night and complaining when we’re x games out of first in late May.

    The alternative (holding on to all 3, or moving them in late July) sets you back by 2-4 years probably instead of 1-2. And, if it doesn’t put you in good position to have one of the top 2 seeds, you’re in the exact same place as this year which nothing to show for it (except for maybe another Framber no-hitter and an extra year of Framber and Tucker jersey sales which means nothing ).

    Trading those 3 is the fastest way I can think of re-supplying the farm system after the draft pick penalties and near decade of being buyers.

     

    It is incredibly difficult to begin an effective rebuild when a team has 2 hall of fame caliber players (like Altuve and Alvarez) under long term control.  When you have 2 players that good, the overwhelming odds favor building around them immediately.  You don’t trade players like Framber or Tucker in that situation.  Pressly may very well be traded, but it would be mostly a salary dump; his return will likely not have a meaningful impact on the farm system.  The Astros underwent a shitload of bad injury luck in 2024.  Without that they likely win the division going away and are in the ALDS.  Heck, even with all the injuries, if Jose Abreu hits like he did prior to 2023, they are probably in the ALDS and nobody is talking about rebuilding.  You don’t tear things down when you’re that close.  If they were going to do a pre-emptive rebuild, the time to do it was last offseason, when they could have gotten monster hauls for Framber, Tucker, and Bregman, and entered 2025 with the top farm system in baseball.  That ship has sailed.  Another thing to note is that their farm has been recovering from lost draft picks for 3-4 seasons now.  After the next draft will be the first time the Astros will have had a full complement of prospects in their farm since 2020.  And despite that the farm has continued to produce 2nd and 3rd tier major leaguers. 
     

    The Astros have ~$40M to spend and need 2-3 good players in order to be legit contenders.  Crane needs to stay out of roster construction decisions.  But it’s doable.

    1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

    Might seem crazy, but right now reminds me a little of where we were after losing the World Series in 2005. We were so weak offensively then that I was begging for an immediate teardown to hasten the rebuild. Of course, McLane didn't want to do anything that bold. So we quickly sank into the abyss and stayed there for many years. 

    I think our current roster is a bit younger than that one, and we of course have far more nice banners flying. But we're also at a crossroads. None of us wants to keep making the playoffs just to make them. We have to add firepower and shore up a leaky defense. 

    You can do a player by player comparison of the organization in 2005 vs today and it’s light years difference.  There was no Yordan-level player with 4 years of control in 2005.  The farm in 2005 had been utterly neglected by McLane for years and was completely barren; that’s not the case today.

    The Astros are surefire playoff contenders next season.  The moves they make over the offseason will determine if they improve into championship contenders.  Even if 2025 doesn’t work out, they can enter 2026 with a clear payroll and 2 extra picks in the upcoming draft, plus another year of Brown restocking the farm. 
     

    One other opinion: Framber and Tucker don’t have much more value now than they will in July, so Houston may as well see if they can make one more run for a ring, because they can also start the rebuild at the deadline if things don’t go their way.

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