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TKthunder2

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by TKthunder2

  1. With a pods/divisions the PAC4 (UW/UO/Stanford/Cal) can minimize their association with the Big2 schools that they find unappealing. Throwing BYU in the mix messes with having PAC4/4corner division/pods and a SWC4/Big8-4 division/pods. Having these schools all be members of the Big8/SWC also gives the conference more legitimacy as these school have national brand recognition and were long time conference members with (UT/OU/Mizzou/Nebraska) which is likely important in securing a NY6 bowl. Not sure they could keep the Rose but locking down a spot in the Fiesta/Cotton opposite the B1G/SEC should be doable (PAC/Big12 and ACC get 2 spots, SEC/B1G get 3 spots, that leaves 1 bowl for the G5 champ and the best remaining at large). I think the internal politics will also be important here as the PAC12 schools and Big 12 school will be split 50/50 at 8 each with possible swing votes coming from newer members with less loyalty to the old guard (Utah, Colorado, TCU, Houston) Besides Stanford/Cal having to grudgingly accept Baylor (which may get bypasses after they talk with the TV executives) they worst thing about this conference is including both Kansas schools however the logical benefits of divisions/pods and their history likely makes this a moot point. This conference could be very successful assuming they don’t tie up rights with a long term GOR as no borderline school will want to agree to that as they think the B1G/SEC could come calling. They also should aggressively lock down long term contracts for OOC rivalry games to sell. Apple Cup, Civil War, Bedlam, Border War, Holy War, UC/UCLA, USC/Stanford, Stanford/ND, Iowa/Iowa St, any TX school vs UT or aggy and even lesser games like CU/CSU, TCU/SMU, UH/Rice (though these should not count as their big OOC game) would help give the networks some inventory to sell, promote, generate interest. Anything they can do to get CBS or NBC to carry their tier 1 content on broadcast they need to do. The whole Bill Snyder easy OOC scheduling will have to die. Nine conference game, a pair of power 5(4) matchup, and a single G5 game (no FCS) should be the new standard. If they do this then this conference could thrive as it would have more eyeballs than anything the ACC could piece together and their schools could be more attractive for future SEC/B1G expansion than they currently are. This shouldn’t be viewed as a long term marriage, it’s simply a marriage of convenience that gets the mid tier schools a chance to show their value and the lower tier schools a chance to improve their position so that they are better prepared for the next time realignment comes knocking.
  2. Yawn lmgtfy kind sir… https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/33968033/could-sec-stage-own-college-football-playoff-all-table-spring-meetings https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/sec-only-playoff-nuclear-option-104904394.html
  3. Yeah it’s crazy why would this ever be a topic of conversation… https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football/sec-considering-its-own-college-football-playoff
  4. The ACC has plenty of semi-quality options located in the geographic region if they get raided. WVU, Cincy, Memphis, Temple, UConn, plus UCF/USF if they lose the Florida schools and maybe Army/Navy as fb only. Even if they lost their best 8 (FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, UVA, VT, NCSU, Louisville) they could still survive with respectable conference that’s still above any nonP5 conference. BC, Syracuse, Cincy, Pitt, WVU, WF, Duke, GT, UCF, USF + Army/Navy fb only
  5. This would make sense if they both dissolve their conference and form a new one dropping the Eastern wing (WVU/Cincy who could get an ACC invite, and UCF who would go back to the AAC) and BYU UW, UO, Cal, Stanford AZ, ASU, Utah, CU Tech, TCU, Baylor, UH OkSU, KSU, KU, ISU
  6. There is a ton of value. The new CFP deal is going to be a lot of money and the SEC/B1G despite filling half the available spot will not receive half the the payout. They’ll get more than the other conferences but even the PAC, who hasn’t had a playoff contender in years is getting within $10 million or so of the SEC/B1G’s total payout. If we assume the CFP payout will nearly double to $1billion a year and the SEC/B1G continue to split 75% of the money with the other P5 your talking about $160 million a year or $10mil/team. If you kill off a P5 conference that number increases. If you increase to 24 teams and hold your own internal playoff with a plus one game with the B1G you’d get $500 million a year which increases conference revenue by over $300million before considering any inventory/markets for the network. If we just assume each addition is worth at least $50 million (since that what their conferences are paying), the playoff increase alone could fund the offset of 6 additional teams. The value is there.
  7. Bingo, and a SEC/B1G only playoff would be controversial if it didn’t have an overwhelming majority of call me back brands/royalty.. The champion of a playoff consisting of Bama, UGA, Oklahoma, LSU / Ohio St, Penn St, Wisconsin, USC would most likely be a consensus #1 by most, however what if the remaining teams scheduled their own playoff with Notre Dame, Oregon, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Florida St, West Virginia, Washington, Boise St…it would cause doubt. Picking off the best of what left (based on brands, history, and recent success) and forming a pair of 24 team conferences would remove most of the legitimacy of any rational observer and give the SEC/B1G control over their own 4 team playoff with a 50/50 split of the +1 national title game between the conferences. Ignoring your competitors only works if your are clearly multiple competition levels above them like Alabama ignoring UCF’s title claim for it’s undefeated season; but if you don’t have that separation you end up in a 2003 LSU/USC split title situation.
  8. Interesting, this seems really doom and gloom when Andy Staples ran the real viewership stats without the exiting schools. Per Andy Staples here is the list of fb viewership outside of the B1G/SEC/ACC listed in order for the Big 12/PAC12 region: UW, UO, WSU, Utah/OkSU, Stan, CU/BU, TCU/WVU, ASU/BSU, Cal/BYU, Cincy, Tech/UCF, UH/USF, ISU/Army/Navy, AZ/Memphis, KSU/SMU/Temple, OrSU. KU/Air Force/CO St/Marshall/Tulsa/UConn If I’m Oklahoma State (the best Big12 school remaining per TV ratings) it looks like joining the PAC is better than remaining in the Big 12. Cut out the Eastern schools (West Virginia, Cincinnati, UCF/USF), make a deal with snooty Cal/Stanford to exclude BYU/Baylor who are likely too toxic for their liking (and bypassing Boise for the same reason) and you’d end up with the PAC adding: OkSU, TCU, Tech, Houston (for the market), Iowa St, and Kansas (for academics/market/basketball), that seems like a solid solution.
  9. Damn, I did it in 2 hours once starting at 2am and thought I was speed demon. It’s nearly 200 miles so I was pushing 90-100 the whole way, which means you were pushing 120.
  10. They can charter out of the College Station airport, but for commercial they can’t, they have to go to DFW. much like Lubbock. The point was that it takes 3 hours per connection and only 90 minutes to bus it to Austin/Houston where they can take many direct flights. Which isn’t something tech can do. I love airplane travel justifications that sending a Midwest team to Lubbock via PHX is better a good thing… How many? No idea and I don’t really care to look it up but back when I was flying to these universities for work I remembered that most had me connect through ORD to get back to Austin (to be fair ABIA was smaller back then). The point was simply that travel to tech isn’t a selling point over aggy. I could easily look up commercial travel times and prove the point but it seems so obvious that it would just be a waste of time.
  11. This isn’t rocket surgery, soak it up with a paper towel and toss it.
  12. Not really. College Station has direct flights too, but even if we ignore that… Hobby and ABIA are about 90 minutes from College Station and they only take single connection from most Big Ten schools. Lubbock requires 2 connections. Roughly, each connection adds about 3 hours to your trip, so you’re trading 3 hours in the airport for half that time on a bus. Add in that teams can stay the night in a larger city before/after the game(s) with more food/entertainment options and it’s pretty clear that aggy has a better travel situation that tech.
  13. Does helping break the ACC’s GOR in order to give more in network coverage for the SECN with NC/VA and more high profile inventory with FSU/Clemson allow them to make more money from advertisers than they lose from the ACC, and does it allow for the Big Ten and FOX to scoop up other value programs/markets?
  14. Lubbock only has direct flights to PHX, Denver, Vegas, Austin, Bush & Hobby, DFW & Love. Sure the fb and bb team will just charter direct but their less profitable sports fly commercial, and that means they’ll have to have 2 connections instead of just 1. Tech would have fit well in the PAC with PHX/DEN, but not so much in the Big Ten.
  15. If the ACC is making $50 million a year for their schools then the 12 year (24-36) payout/exit fee would be $600 million. While that seems like a daunting number when you calculate the the Big Ten and SEC will be making $1.2billion during that timeframe, then FSU would ultimately still receive then same amount of TV revenue in either conference. Even if you disregard the increased exposure, ticket sales, merchandise that likely come along with moving to a better conference, and assume FSU won’t do any better in the short term, the long term benefits of joining the SEC/BigTen and securing a spot now means it’s worth whatever headaches come with breaking the GOR.
  16. Yep if they needed one around there it should have gone on the East side of 35 where the apartments are where people can actually use them.
  17. I’d go for UNC, Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Arizona, UConn, Gonzaga, and Wake Forest personally.
  18. I have no doubt they are listening, but until they get the tv numbers back from FOX/ESPN they aren’t going anywhere unless they get B1G/SEC invites.
  19. Seriously, if they have to fly commercial, the Big Ten absolutely should work with ORD/LAX to get a lounge for when the teams travel. That being said I bet they just go private charters.
  20. Most don’t consider Tennessee a blueblood. Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC, and Nebraska. Nebraska is falling out. Texas, despite our horrible decade, is still a top job and a top choice for recruits. As are the rest of the bluebloods save Nebraska. If we have another decade like the last one then we’ll likely fall down/off the list.
  21. No one has said it yet, but the basketball tournament is worth over a billion dollars a year and less than half of that goes to the power 5 conferences. If you think these schools will abandon long time rivals in football but then turn around and stump for a small catholic university in rural Washington state in basketball then I got some beach front property to sell you in Arizona. Hosting a power 5 only tournament may not pull in the same amount of money as the current tournament, but it will mean more money overall for the power 5. Love it or hate it, to me this seems inevitable.
  22. I said undervalued. They used conference realignment to undervalue UT/OU and hoped that the gravy train would continue in perpetuity. If they had stopped and looked past their immediate greed and thought about how this would affect UT/OU in the long term then maybe they would have taken less money for longer term security. While most of the Big12/PAC12is just happy to collect a check and have their names on the ESPN crawler each week, obviously UT/OU/USC/UCLA are not now now those chickens have come home to roost. The other leagues can support a few underperforming programs but the Big 12 and PAC12 are so bottom heavy it was never going to be a viable long term situation, which many of us have been discussing on here for the last decade. https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50 SEC before UT/OU has 8 in the top 20 B1G before USC/UCLA has 7 in the top 22 B12 w/o UT/OU have 2 in the top 25, Okie St at 19 and TCU at 25 P12 has USC in the top 20 w/ Stanford, Oregon, Washington, UCLA clustered in the 25-32 range ACC has 3 in the top 25 (Clemson, FSU, Miami) It’s easy to help out a few long term rivals by subsidizing a little bit (especially if they bring other beneficial qualities to the conference) but what the non-SEC/B1G conferences were doing was providing far more than just a little subsidy which is why the TV dollar were never going to be close this time around.
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