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TKthunder2

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by TKthunder2

  1. 2 conferences of 24 would cover more than 75% 3 conferences of 20 would cover nearly 90% Dropping the bottom 8 from the P5/4 (think Oregon St, Wake Forest) would only drop by 1%.
  2. Yeah the sport really took a nose dive when they split FCS/FBS, and then half the SWC was left out, and then again when the Big East was left out. Its barely hanging on…coffin is almost closed. /s
  3. Texas: OU, aggy, Arkansas is pretty much guaranteed. After that most of it hinges on LSU. LSU fans want Alabama/Florida and Ole Miss but logistically it works out better for the conference as a whole and to better tie in the old SWC schools into the fold if they get Arkansas/aggy and Ole Miss. Without LSU involved, you end up with 5 teams only playing each other with only UK as the single outsider. Texas: OU, aggy, Arkansas OU: Texas, Mizzou, aggy aggy: Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma Arkansas: Texas, aggy, Mizzou Mizzou: OU, Arkansas, Kentucky With LSU involved, you end up with 6 teams playing each other with 4 outsiders rotating in which seems like a healthier setup for keeping the conference strong and connected. Something the old E/W N/S divisions didn’t really facilitate. Texas: OU, aggy, Arkansas OU: Texas, Mizzou, ?UF? aggy: Texas, Arkansas, LSU Arkansas: Texas, aggy, LSU Mizzou: OU, Kentucky, ?SC? LSU: Arkansas, aggy, Ole Miss
  4. 100% the same for both our schedules: Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt Below are the differences: Alabama: My schedule: Mississippi St (105), His schedule: LSU (86) Arkansas: My schedule: LSU (68), His schedule: Mizzou (13) Florida: My schedule: South Carolina (42)/Oklahoma (2), His schedule: LSU (68)/Tennessee (51) Kentucky: My schedule: Tennessee (117), His schedule: South Carolina (33) LSU: My schedule: Arkansas (67)/TAMU (60), His schedule: Alabama (86)/Florida (68) Mississippi St: My schedule: Alabama (106), His schedule: South Carolina (16) Mizzou: My schedule: South Carolina (12), His schedule: Arkansas (13) Oklahoma: My schedule: Florida (2), His schedule: TAMU (31) South Carolina: My schedule Florida (42)/Mizzou (12), His schedule: Kentucky (32), Mississippi St (16) Tennessee: My schedule: Kentucky (117), His schedule: Florida (51) Texas A&M: My schedule LSU (60), His schedule: Oklahoma (31) I think Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi St, South Carolina, and TAMU would prefer my schedule I think Florida, LSU, Mizzou, and Oklahoma would prefer his schedule Not sure about Alabama and Tennessee since they have a choice between a high profile games and a most played geographic rivalry they’ve played over 100 times. I think when you get down to logistics and Thanksgiving week comes up and you have everyone in the conference playing their in state rivals except Oklahoma, Mizzou, Arkansas, and LSU it far less messy for the league office to pair them up and just pencil in those games. My schedule takes that into account and his does not.
  5. Alabama: Auburn (86 games), Tennessee (103), Mississippi St (105). Notable miss: LSU (86) Arkansas: LSU (68), Texas (79), TAMU (78). Notable miss: Ole Miss (68) Auburn: Alabama (86), Georgia (126), Mississippi St (95). Notable miss: Florida (84) Florida: Georgia (99), South Carolina (42), Oklahoma (2). Notable miss: Auburn (84), Kentucky (72), LSU (68) Georgia: Florida (99), Auburn (126), South Carolina (74). Notable miss: Vanderbilt (81) Kentucky: Vandy (94), Tennessee (117), Mizzou (12). Notable miss: Georgia (75), Florida (72) LSU: Arkansas (67), TAMU (60), Ole Miss (110). Notable miss: Mississippi St (115), Alabama (86), Florida (68) Mississippi St: Ole Miss (116), Alabama (106), Auburn (95). Notable miss: LSU (115) Mizzou: Oklahoma (96), Kentucky (12), South Carolina (12). Notable miss: Texas (24) Oklahoma: Texas (117), Mizzou (96), Florida (2). Notable miss: TAMU (31), Arkansas (15) Ole Miss: Mississippi St (116), LSU (109), Vandy (94). Notable miss: Alabama (68), Arkansas (66), Tennessee (66) South Carolina: Florida (42), Georgia (74), Mizzou (12). Notable miss: Tennessee (40), Kentucky (32) Tennessee: Vandy (116), Alabama (103), Kentucky (117). Notable miss: Ole Miss (66) Texas: Oklahoma (117), TAMU (118), Arkansas (79). Notable miss: Mizzou (24) Texas A&M: Texas (118), LSU (60), Arkansas (78). Notable miss: Oklahoma (31) Vandy: Tennessee (116), Kentucky (94), Ole Miss (96). Notable miss: Alabama (84), Georgia (81) 50% of the SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, TAMU, Vanderbilt all play their top 3 all time conference opponents in this model. 80% of the SEC: above plus Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi St, Oklahoma, South Carolina, will play 2 of their top 2 all time conference opponents. Only Florida, LSU, and Mizzou will not. Mizzou just doesn’t have a lot of history outside of OU (who they will play annually) so most won’t be concerned with them. Pairing Florida and LSU makes sense however it messes with the rest of the pairings and LSU has about as much history with regional former OOC foes Arkansas (67) and TAMU (60) as they do with in conference Florida (68). LSU’s issue is losing games against Mississippi St and big time games against Alabama and Florida but those lost games will be supplemented with games against Texas, OU, UGA, and Tennessee. Florida gets UGA and plays geographically close South Carolina but then doesn’t really have another historic rival outside of Auburn who already has their top 3. Penciling in Oklahoma gives them a make up game for losing LSU, plus even if it’s a force rivalry, it’s a made for TV game that will bring eyeballs.
  6. True, but then who do they all play on Thanksgiving weekend? Arkansas/LSU was their rivalry pairing. Everyone else will be taken with in state rivalries except LSU/Arkansas/Oklahoma/Mizzou, so either they get paired up or they have a late season bye/OOC game which would suck strategically. Arkansas would host and travel to one of their 4 closest geographic games Oklahoma, Mizzou, Vandy, and Ole Miss each year plus play their Thanksgiving boot rivalry with LSU and their two historic SWC foes. Mizzou is basically in the same boat. Rivalry with Oklahoma and Kentucky for historical/geographical reasons and have Arkansas/Vandy and the Texas schools (which is important to them) on rotation.
  7. Start with rivalry weekend and work backwards. Rivalry weekend Oklahoma/Mizzou (could sub in Okie St/Kansas if they can make that work) Texas/TAMU LSU/Arkansas OleMiss/MIssissippi St Alabama/Auburn Tennessee/Vandy Kentucky/Louisville South Carolina/Clemson Florida/Florida St Georgia/Georgia Tech Other important rivalries: Texas/Oklahoma Alabama/Tennessee Georgia/Florida Georgia/Auburn (note: people are wanting to re-establish Florida/Auburn but that was already broken up and Auburn’s rivalries would be ridiculous with Bama/UGA/UF. They’ll play every other year in this new configuration so that should be good enough) Alabama: Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi St Arkansas: LSU, Texas, TAMU Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi St Florida: Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma Georgia: Florida, Auburn, South Carolina Kentucky: Vandy, Tennessee, Mizzou LSU: Arkansas, TAMU, Ole Miss Oklahoma: Texas, Mizzou, Florida Ole Miss: Mississippi St, LSU, Vandy Mizzou: Oklahoma, Kentucky, South Carolina Mississippi St: Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn South Carolina: Florida, Georgia, Mizzou Tennessee: Vandy, Alabama, Kentucky Texas: Oklahoma, TAMU, Arkansas Texas A&M: Texas, LSU, Arkansas Vandy: Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss East team stay with the East teams, West teams with the West. Bullshit forced rivalries like South Carolina/aggy and Florida/LSU are replaced by new bullshit rivalries like Florida/Oklahoma and South Carolina/Mizzou but it won’t matter as much since they’ll play everyone more often.
  8. I think your view is a little too narrow. OU, Michigan, Texas, and Notre Dame draw even during down years. Michigan played Rutgers two years go as the Big Noon showcase for fuck’s sake, and Texas has played feckless Kansas on an ABC national broadcast. Ohio State has been good, but they have good games outside of just Michigan. They play Penn St and Michigan St annually and rotate Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota on their schedule regularly. The reason Texas and USC haven’t been ratings monsters is that they’ve underperformed for a decade plus, and their competition hasn’t helped. Swap UT’s big games of the year from Iowa St, Baylor, and Oklahoma State to Georgia, aggy, and LSU add our national appeal will increase.
  9. Non-SEC/B1G list (for reference) Again based on all time wins Tier 1: Blue bloods and almost blue bloods (1) Notre Dame Tier 2: Solid middle B12: (1) West Virginia ACC: (8) Clemson, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia PAC: (5) Washington, Colorado, Utah, Oregon, Cal Smart private schools: PAC: (1) Stanford ACC: (1) Duke Everyone else is Tier 3 (historically speaking) again some pretty big misses using this method (Florida St/Miami were late to the football game, and other ACC teams and WVU are overvalued from playing in previously small weak Big East and filling up schedules with small G5/FCS competition) but it still gives you an idea about the perception of the leagues when viewed from this lens.
  10. By all time wins: Tier 1: Blue bloods and almost blue bloods B1G: (5) Michigan, Ohio St, Nebraska, Penn St, USC SEC: (6) Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Georgia, LSU Tier 2: Solid middle B1G: (4) Wisconsin, Michigan St, Minnesota, Iowa SEC: (5) Auburn, aggy, Florida, Arkansas, Missouri Tier 3: hopefully they have stuff other than football… B1G: (6) Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA, Illinois, Indiana SEC: (4) Ole Miss, Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi St Smart private schools: B1G: (1) Northwestern SEC: (1) Vanderbilt Not perfect, I’d probably drop Nebraska/Tennessee/Missouri down a level and bump Florida/OleMiss/UCLA up a level but for the most part it illustrates my point. The SEC has far better football and the “dregs” are far better than the Big Ten. If anyone disagrees please show your work, I’m curious on how anyone could justify otherwise.
  11. You are a dipshit. I hate both these schools and now I’m having to defend them. They are both top 25 in all time wins and top 20 in number of bowls bids. They are good middle of the road teams for the SEC, comparable to other middle of the road B1G teams like Iowa and Michigan State. Comparing them to Indiana, Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland, and Illinois is just idiotic. Also anyone talking about Ole Miss as a bad conference member has clearly never been to The Grove.
  12. He has a house down there for when working with space X but when he’s in Austin apparently he stays in Lakeway…for the milfs
  13. Oklahoma-branded page goes live on ESPN+, with SoonerVision content Yeah the LHN will die or morph after we officially join. ESPN owns the third tier rights for the SEC they are not going to pay us more for them than the conference gets. They may pay more for those rights if the contract has an escalator clause, but the funds will be divided equally.
  14. Seriously we should have an age cap. IRS requires you take out retirement at 72.5 so back that up 4 years, you’d have to be younger than 68.5 by inauguration to be eligible to run. 35-68.5 seems like a reasonable age range.
  15. Its not final but reports say the SEC is considering 2 scheduling models when they grow to 16 (neither involve pods) 8 game conference schedule with a single rival, rotate the other 7 games every year. 9 game conference schedule with 3 rivals, rotate the other 6 games every year. aggy has said they prefer 9 games with Texas, LSU, Arkansas as long as they can keep their annual FCS body bag game (rumor they were discussing banning those).
  16. This is a thread about ERCOT, talking about private power producers is okay, Austin Energy not okay. Let’s not focus when the city we like does the same thing as the private power producers we don’t like (like not keep enough quick start capacity on hand because it’s expensive) because it doesn’t fit our narrative. If the narrative is more regulation and municipal owned/operated is better then why is our most local example such a shit show? I’d rather see community owned co-ops personally myself.
  17. Austin Energy had a half billion dollar biomass plant in Nacogdoches that recently bought in 2019 (because they had to in order to get out of a nearly criminally bad contract they royally fucked up when drawing it up https://www.kxan.com/investigations/austins-biomass-power-plant-idled-again-during-mid-june-energy-crunch/ ) that they couldn’t get turned on to produce ANY electricity during the storm. They had also decommissioned two “low efficiency” but still fully operational power generators at Decker just 3 month previously with no plans for replacing them or their capacity (basically being green but cutting costly generation infrastructure just like everyone on here is complaining about private power companies doing the same thing). On the small but still important side of things, AE also had a shit ton of untrimmed vegetation that fucked with lines, old/outdated infrastructure that should have been replaced (like transformers) that also fucked people over. They also have no permanent plan towards burying any power lines even in high vegetation/wildfire risk areas where it would be extremely advantageous or even when neighborhoods and HOAs have offered to cover the cost (since that wouldn’t be fair somehow). The only ones that do get buried are either downtown/adjacent or East side in council favored projects like Mueller. No power company is perfect, but Austin Energy should not be getting a pass on their lack of preparation for the winter storm. Last I heard (to lazy to site my sources) they are still planning on mothballing the Nacogdoches plant this winter where it can’t be easily spun up and they still have not replaced the capacity at the Decker plant and despite having nearly $1 billion in reserves previously to spend on infrastructure improvements (like new generators, transformers, and buried power lines) they have made few to any improvements until the backlash of the winter storm forced them to put on a show for the rest of the year, and now that fund is rapidly being depleted since they have been running a deficit since COVID and are asking to increase rates despite already being the highest priced provider in the region. Private power and the State/ERCOT deserve the scorn they get on here, but Austin Energy shouldn’t be exempt just because of “my team” CR bullshit reasons. Fuck them all, fix this shit.
  18. Removing Texas/Oklahoma matchups since that will continue: Below is the number of total matchups for Texas History of current SEC matchups: 293 History of current Big 12-OU matchups: 382 The majority (72%) of our history with the Big 12-OU is with Baylor (111), TCU (92), and Tech (71). Okie St (36) is the next most as an honorable mention. We’ve been trying to ditch the rape loving, cat killing Baptists of the brown water for 30 years and we did ditch the cockroaches so no shits given about that “history”. Slight (very slight) remorse about Tech (and Okie St) but the PAC leadership failure killed that. Even after a decade of having annual games against Iowa St, Kansas, and K State shoved down our throat our most played Big 12 North opponent to date is still Missouri. That last decade of 9 (8 w/o OU) conference games boosted the Big 12 numbers by 80 over the SEC which then only gives them a small advantage total and most of us here don’t give a shit about the last 10 years. Texas moving to the SEC is losing some minor history but reconnecting with 2 former top rivals, using a tradition/history argument on UT is idiotic. The best case scenario for Texas was annual conference games against Oklahoma, aggy, and Arkansas and that is about to become a reality, spinning this as Texas losing traditional matchups is insane. OU on the other hand is: History of current SEC matchups: 167 (mostly Mizzou) History of current Big 12-UT matchups: 513 But here’s the deal, yes that’s a lot of history however not all history is valued the same. Of the Big 8 Oklahoma had a winning record against everyone but the teams that did best against OU were (in order): Nebraska (.546 win%), Colorado (.695), Missouri (.724), Kansas (.732), K State (.775), Okie St (.806), and finally Iowa St (.900). This is similar to Texas and aggy leaving the SWC after Arkansas left, no real good way to sugar coat how much little they cared about tech/uh and the private schools and how much that “history” was an anchor around the neck. After that (and again excluding UT) Oklahoma has played Baylor the most (32 times) and Tech (29) which is barely more than they’ve played Tulsa (28). So Oklahoma lost its 3 most competitive games that sold season tickets and basically got more random filler from TX/WV as replacement on their schedule along with 2 long played games of programs that have been trending down for a decade now, one former doormat trending up, and an instate rival. The best situation for Oklahoma would be annual conference matchups with Texas, Nebraska, and Okie St And since the Big Ten wasn’t willing to play ball the Nebraska window has closed. So honestly the only thing they lost was Okie State and if they are lobbying for them to have a spot if/when the SEC goes beyond 20 teams then good for them because then this would turn this from a good move, to a great move as they have 3 of their 5 most played games and 2 of their top 3 all time rivals (and there’s a small chance Kansas could get an invite too which would also give them 4/5).Annual conference games with Texas, Okie St, and Mizzou at least make sense historically speaking rather than just elbowing in another random SEC team like South Carolina or Mississippi State.
  19. Again, they won’t pay them $100 million now. They’ll only pay $50 million but it’ll secure their spot in a power conference so that’s a trade everyone of them will make. Seattle and the Bay Area markets for the BTN might be too tempting plus Cal/Stanford make the presidents wet between the knees, Washington/Oregon are the best remaining fb properties not locked up for the next decade excluding ND. Speaking of the Irish landing Stanford helps with getting them in the fold and makes the Big Ten the ideal academic conference that reflects the same ideals the Irish are striving for. Once under contract with the Big Ten, Fox won’t have to complete with ESPN for the Big 12 (though they will because why cut your rival a break to save more capital for the next round of contract negotiations). FOX would have the best late night inventory and they’d barely have to pay anymore since they are competing against a low ball ESPN offer to the PAC and not a specific offer to UO/UW/Stan/Cal which is worth more due to markets/brand/success (omitting Cal on that last one). Make $50 million a year in the Big Ten knowing you’ll make less than your conference mates until the next contract…or make $50 million a year in the Big 12. Seems like a no brainer to me. Its also why the 4 corner schools are dumb not to be forcing the issue now. The longer they wait the less leverage they have. Allowing the Big Ten deal to close now isn’t helping Arizona&co, its only helping Oregon&co.
  20. I don’t think the Big Ten desperately wants more Western schools but FOX needs them. Also this is the end game. If they let the PAC school like Cal/Washington rot out West then they have only themselves to blame when they don’t have AAU level schools that fit the mold of what the Big Ten is looking for. I don’t think the Big Ten is interested in diluting their payout by just expanding to expand, which is why they won’t without ND unless the noobs agree to a reduced revenue share throughout the terms of the current contract. If the 16 team Big Ten pulls in $100 million per member per year but Oregon/Washington/Stanford/Cal only pull in $40 million then they’d make them a deal that they’ll only get 40 until the next renegotiation since the other members were unwilling to take pay cuts, and the new members really will have no choice but to accept. I don’t see much of the ACC as a good value add for the Big Ten. If they can get ND they’d still have 3 more spots for Miami, GT, UNC, UVA or whoever.
  21. I agree that’s what will happen this time in Texas. I disagree that it was a forgone conclusion. If they had no power Texas and the SEC would have announced it earlier, but as we’ve seen in previous attempts to join the SEC and PAC they can prevent a move like this if they have enough time to plan and get out in front of it. The secrecy, timing, and B1G/LA moves is what has cemented this in place, not because the legislature is incapable. What everyone is waiting on: Big Ten TV deal to be finalized. What does CBS do with two contracted games in the midday time slots in 2023? What shakes out with the PAC/B12. ESPN will have a large hole to fill without B1G content. Adding UT/OU games against the big brands of the SEC will be novel and fill those spots in their lineup. They can also stop doing their one off LHN/Sooner stuff and roll that into the SECN. Unless CBS has some beneficial language in their deal, they likely can’t keep both games. Maybe FOX buys out the first year but if that seemed like a good plan why include CBS at all? Selling the SEC to ESPN at a high rate could give them a year if the Big Ten effectively free. Then ESPN only has to deal with the Big 12 who gets the last two years of conference payout from departing members. Since the new B12 members don’t bring in any more money until the next contract they’ll only be shrinking the slice of pie everyone gets when they join AND the exit fees UT/OU are leaving behind. Also as it’s been pointed out UT/OU winning the conference would not be a great look. Seems like a missed opportunity when you had Baylor/Okie St playing for it all last year to say we don’t need you but with the 2020 COVID season I get why they wanted to wait until at least this year. Still IF ESPN decides to make this play then working with the B12 to peel off PAC12 schools will benefit both the B12 and ESPN in the long run. Some could come to the B12 others May take a haircut in the B1G, but either way ESPN would own 3 of the 4 Power leagues and the Big 12 (and ACC) would be in better positions with the PAC12 losing their power status both competitively and financially. The only problem here is FOX. They still have a midday slot that needs filling and the B12 is the conference that owns that spot currently. They may be willing to negotiate early and get out under that contract, however since they needs content that seems unlikely and I assume holding and reevaluating the landscape might be beneficial after these last moves. The only reason for FOX to play ball is to get USC/UCLA to the B1G sooner or to facilitate the next B1G expansion West.
  22. Tell me that you don’t know much about a Texas politics without telling me…fuck it https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty-seventh_Texas_Legislature Bicameral means every two years. 87th Legislature ran until May 31st, 2021 The SEC move didn’t leak until July 22nd, 2021 (this was intentional, the circle was kept on a very small need to know basis until the Regular Session ended in May). The legislature was in on a special session, however… https://texasscorecard.com/commentary/what-is-a-special-session/ So the legislature could call its dog and pony show since they were technically “in session” but without Abbott (like it or not, a UT grad) putting higher education review or something similar on his agenda they could do anything until Jan 2023. Will anything happen? I’m sure some new bill will pop up trying to force tech or cougar high into the PUF but as long as aggy doesn’t fuck it up those will fail like usual. There will be some unkind words at the higher ed committee with legislators trying to get easy layup sounds bites for their constituents, but at this point the genie is likely not going back in the bottle for two reasons: #1 everyone can now see the endgame (Thanks USC/UCLA/B1G) and having two schools in the cool kids club when certain states may soon have zero is better than the status quo. Plus if there is a chance to get Tech in, it will only come with both UT & aggy pushing for it from within. It’s basically been settled and the public has moved on, trying to turn back UT to the B12 will not happen. Our legislators will be armed with prepared talking note about how aggy left without a big fuss or how UH just ditched SMU without a big hoopla and how this an “opportunity for all” which leads me to… #2 Most of the state of Texas D1 outside of came out ahead in these last few rounds of realignment. aggy then Texas> SEC, TCU then UH > B12, SMU then Rice/UNT/UTSA > AAC, and SHSU > CUSA, TX St > SunBelt, SFA/ACU/Tarelton/UTRGV > WAC, TAMU-Commerce > Southland. That’s only baylor (rape), tech (bad market/bad timing/bad decade), and UTEP (incompetence) stalling out/not advancing and those three don’t really have enough pull to do much other than kick and scream a little.
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