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Everything posted by TKthunder2
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Crazy thing about that. If you add Arizona/Oregon/Washington to the Big 12, you have 4 conferences covering all but 6 states in the FBS (5 of which play in the MWC, #6 is UConn). Also with 12 teams, an undefeated will always make the cut (for the antitrust reason you mentioned above) and 1 loss teams may even have a shot. I don’t think guaranteeing a random 2 loss champ from a weak PAC, AAC, MAC etc automatically making it in the door is going to fly when the SEC/B1G are as loaded as they are going forward. 2 loss Tulane bumping a 3 loss LSU or Penn State out of the playoffs should not happen. Having 12 spots gives anyone in the FBS a realistic path for undefeated teams like Boise, Hawaii, Tulane, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and TCU/Utah/UCF teams of old a true shot which is a major improvement. The honest lack of access was the problem. Automatic bids doesn’t take that access away. If they get called to Capitol Hill, they have plenty of old CSPAN footage of the Senators/Congressman asking for access which they can say “we did exactly as you asked”.
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The conference champ autobid is likely going away when they renegotiate the CFP after 2025 season. The SEC/B1G agreed to that because it required unanimous approval to expand the playoff from 4 to 12. That approval will no long be required for 2026 and you’ll likely see it moved to a straight up at large selection (maybe with a single carve out for a G5 team in the top 16 or something like they had in the old BCS). Second, the ACC (minus the COVID season where they had ND) hasn’t had 2 teams ranked in the top 12 since 2017 (Clemson and #10 10-2 Miami). I’ll send you $1000 right now against you 90% if you’re willingly to stand by those odds.
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I’m going to disagree with the room on Clemson. ND is not a real option, so FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA would be the best possible scenario for the SEC. Clemson has a top 15 college stadium by capacity, and top 15 program ranked by wins, the most ACC football titles, 3 national titles, great all around athletic program that if they join with FSU would have all their historical rivals in the SEC save GT/NCSU. I get that SC is a smaller market, but Clemson is a power team worthy of being considered in the top half of a 20 team SEC. You compare Clemson to aggy and Auburn, not Texas and Bama. Do you take them alone, NO and I get that but if you can get them in a combination with FSU it adds a ton of firepower and offsets whoever else is added to go with them (could literally be almost any other two programs, like NCSU/VT or even really weak ones like Kansas/Duke). When you have FSU on board, Clemson is that sweetener that basically allows the SEC a free pass to add nearly any schools it wants because FSU/Clemson buys up that good will both internally and externally. If the SEC misses out on FSU, but lands UNC, you still need Clemson to make the moves balance out. As great as adding UNC/UVA would be, without a fb power like Clemson in the mix it will give the appearance of watering down the SEC and the message will be internally “Do we want to give up playing UGA/OU every other year in order to add UNC/UVA/NCSU/VT to our schedule?” Clemson is the glue that holds expansion without FSU together. The only scenario where Clemson is left out imo is if UNC/UVA insist on bringing along Duke and FSU is already on board. Then it’s the numbers pushing Clemson out the door. UNC/UVA might have enough leverage to make that move so it’s not unthinkable. Circling back, ND is not joining the SEC as a full member (maybe a scheduling agreement if they leave the ACC and the B1G tries to pressure them for full membership, then 4-5 games with the SEC while they return to the old Big East for other sports might make sense) so discussing them as an option is pointless.
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But Grizzly Adams did have a beard…I mean Oklahoma State did win the conference in 2011. The argument they made was that Alabama was the best 1 loss team. Which while potentially true shouldn’t have mattered since they already lost to LSU. The whole point of the BCS was to stage a championship game BETWEEN conferences to prove which was best at the end of the season. We knew LSU was the best but had a chance to see them take on a 1 loss Okie St or Stanford from another conference which should have been the matchup, but since Okie St/Stanford aren’t bluebloods ESPN knew it wouldnt draw as well as Bama. And while they were likely correct, TV ratings was not the point of the BCS NCG when it was originally created. It was a shitty thing to do. Okie St deserved their shot but got fucked. Worse than Baylor/TCU in my opinion.
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Not sure which conference you’re referencing. If it’s the Big Ten, I’m pretty sure ASU now with AAU membership and hockey and most importantly the PHX market is their top candidate over Zona. If it’s the Big 12, Arizona has been more open to joining the league and their basketball fits well with the remaining members. As the Big 12 doesn’t have a TV network, markets don’t matter nearly as much. ASU’s football ratings have been better recently than Zona but neither were really doing all that great. They 100% take Zona if they are willing to come, overplaying your hand trying to trade up and get ASU could easily backfire.
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The Buffs were the team I was most upset to see leave the conference. Other than Colorado jumping on the blame Texas bandwagon on their way out the door despite voting with Texas on nearly every issue during their time in the Big12, I have no hard feelings either. Nebraska, Colorado, aggy, and Mizzou showed their ass and threw bombs at Texas and the Big12 on their way out the door to make themselves feel better and I found it fairly pathetic…especially when you compare how Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA are handling their current exits with tact and grace.
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Big Ten, pass on all until you get clarity from ND/ACC. Big 12, UO/UW are obvious takes. Cal/Stanford could get invited but they are too busy looking down on anyone not in the B1G/PAC that it’s not worth the effort or energy right now to consider them realistic candidates. Maybe after 5 years in the wilderness they’ll come down from their high horse.
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I agree with the sentiment. But if the Big Ten is going coast to coast and trying to move South with UNC, UVA, and FSU the SEC would be foolish to just let them in without any resistance. As I stated on the last page: FSU, Clemson, NCSU, VT works Clemson, UNC, UVA, Duke(or whoever) works too They need FSU or UNC to go past 16. If the Big Ten landed both of those it would be a big loss for the SEC (and if the SEC lands both that would be a big win). Assuming the Big Ten lands both FSU and UNC then I think the SEC standing pat is the right move. Without those, any moves would be too dilutive and spread the conference out for very little return.
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True, but while the SEC will be fine without, the demographic and long term benefit of moving into NC are fairly obvious.
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Only if the PAC lands a TV deal locks up a GOR. Colorado as #13 makes scheduling extremely difficult. UConn is the fall back option if they can’t land Arizona. Missouri says hello.
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Okay… So Clemson/NCSU/VT/WVU… That doesn’t really move the needle the same way. Long term getting into those markets may help, but that would be painful in the short term so I think it would be unlikely. They could get by without FSU or UNC but not both. FSU/Clemson/NCSU/VT works… UVA/UNC/Clemson/Duke works…
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FSU/Clemson and UNC/UVA are obviously the top candidates for the SEC. If they get those and chose to go past 20 to 22 or 24 I could see a school like West Virginia checking a lot of boxes, along with Kansas/Duke.
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You clearly have no idea how pods work. It does NOT mean a 4 team playoff for a CCG. Pod1 and Pod2 make a single year division, Pod3 and Pod4 make the other division. The best team in these single year divisions play ONE CCG. Next year you change the pods around… Pod1/Pod3 in a division, Pod2/Pod4 in the other… year after that Pod1/Pod4 v Pod2/Pod3… rinse and repeat
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I’ll repeat myself from a few weeks back. The current Big 12 is at virtually zero risk of getting poached now. They should work with ESPN/FOX and change their GOR/bylaws to allow members to leave for the SEC/B1G for a reasonable exit fee. This would allow Oregon/Washington to join and take the money now without worrying about missing out on a Big Ten invite. Those teams join and the Big 12 is clearly number 3 (even over the ACC) and you now have obvious candidates that you can backfill them with (Utah, Stanford, Cal, Arizona St). Hell, If even write in a special provision to let Cincy/West Virginia/UCF join the ACC to if they want. Can they word it to make the ACC take all three? They should.
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Agree, unless you work out a deal to dump Cincy, WVU, and UCF to the ACC yeah you stop. If you can dump those schools then it make sense to grab 3 of ASU, Utah, Cal, or Stanford.
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Except SDSU has to payout out like $30 million to leave the MWC. They obviously did that intentionally. It makes it unwise for 4 or more MWC to join the PAC as they be wheeling out $120+ million to the remaining 8 in the MWC and opens the door to a merger of equals where Wyoming v Stanford is now a must see conference matchup.
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Unless the SEC and Big Ten hold their own playoff. Regular season determines seeding. Top 4 play. Winner plays SEC. Not sharing the playoff payout with B12/ACC/P12 and other G5 conference and allowing the SEC/B1G to negotiate their own value and only share/split to title game would be pretty valuable even if it’s slightly less overall than their current structure since the SEC/B1G’s pie would be bigger. Not saying it’s happening…but it could.
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Glad it’s finally moving. Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, Washington would be an absolute realignment coup for the Big 12. At that point fuck Arizona State and Utah lulz.
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FOX is a $25b company with 10k employees with the main TV network and local stations as its main bread and butter. FOX Sports and to a lesser extent FOX News are (like their lesser known branch FOX Entertainment) all about driving viewership to FOX and the local affiliates. FOX News, love them or hate them is a major player in cable news, FS1 is nowhere near that same status in sports. They are closer to CBS Sports Network or NBC Sports than it is to ESPN. They mainly compete with ESPN2. As far as Disney is concerned they are a $200b company with over 200k employees. Igor split the business in 3 parts. Disney Entertainment, Disney Parks/Experiences/Cruises/Products, and ESPN. The fact that they carved out ESPN and have talked it up as a primary revenue generating business means either they are about to leverage that business like crazy (streaming, betting, events, radio, news, etc) or that they are positioning it for a huge payday which still would be a positive for all involved. If this is purely FOX vs Disney this is not even a competition. Disney eats FOX’s lunch. But add in CBS/NBC to go along with FOX and guarantee 3 OTA TV windows and that deal is impressive (which is what the B1G had to do, only getting 2 of the 3 wouldn’t have been nearly as impactful). Still if your a fan of a conference in the next decade in a streamlined streaming world (minus some collaborative technology that allows you to easily flip between games) having all your conference content on a single streaming service is far superior. Imagine Big Ten fans having to subscribe to whatever app FOX does, Peacock, and Paramount+ to see all their team’s home games while the SEC(and ACC) can just stay on a single app with great PIP/multi view options. The Big Ten may have a slightly better money position and exposure currently, but long term I think the SEC hitched its wagon to the right horse.
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I think you guys are off on this. ESPN is best setup for future streaming and has more potential as a partner. NBC/CBS are very limited and FOX just sold off most of its assets to Disney. Which streaming service will have the easiest time with sports streaming? Disney+HuluESPN or Peacock or Paramount or FOXNow? There is a budget crunch right now FOX had to partner with CBS/NBC to get the numbers to work. That gives them great slotting in the current market, but doesn’t set them up for long term success. This is one of the main reasons analysts think eventually you’ll see CBS/NBC/FOX partner/merge with Apple/Amazon/Netflix is because they are NOT setup well for future growth like ESPN is.
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With the Big 12 keeping a strong presence in Texas they’ll continue to have interest from FOX and if they can lock up the 4C schools and have a weekly late kick plus play games on Thursday/Friday games they’ll get interest from ESPN. Those are the major selling points. Yes, Oklahoma State and TCU help but add the 4 Texas schools, Oklahoma State, and BYU or Kansas to the PAC12 and you’d have similar interests from the networks.
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and ring that notification bell too while you’re at it
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Home to the $30,000 millionaires
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Only 60k seats? That’s cute.
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No one gives a shit about TCU nationally. If they are in the playoff picture they they watch, otherwise they can get some juice just because people in Texas/DFW will watch. Take out UT/OU games and TCU had 2 regular season games pull 4 million viewers (ISU and Baylor, both late season after they beat UT and people nationally recognized them as a real playoff contender) and 2 pull 2 million (when they played Tech right before UT, and OSU in week 7). Hitting 4 million viewers is a milestone, and it does not happen regularly. Extrapolating TCU’s playoff run as something the Big 12 can replicate year in year out with the same level of novelty is a flawed argument. 2 million sure, getting quality ranked vs ranked matchups on FOX/ABC may even pull 3, but for 4 it typically has to have national interest which is where the new Big 12 will likely struggle. Prior to TCU this last year do you know the last 4 million viewer conference game the Big 12 has had without UT/OU? You have to go back to 2015 for Baylor/OSU and Baylor/TCU. Games where people thought Baylor had a chance to speak into the CFP late in the season. Sound familiar? But as I said before, without UT/OU, the remaining Big 12 schools will have more opportunities to get a heavily watch game and they’ll likely do better than a pair once every 7 years, but even the RRSO didn’t pull 4 million every year, so it’s not an automatic by any means.
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