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Eastwood

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Eastwood

  1. Shipments are having to focus on stocking things like milk, eggs, and other vital calories and goods. Oh, and toilet paper because of idiots. HEB has even asked people to stop buying up TP so they can make room for more vital supplies on their trucks. I went to HEB this morning after the rush. No line, took less than an hour. Plenty of perfectly good calories on the shelves. Made me realize that people are showing up early to buy what they want, not what they need. There's perfectly edible, legitimate calories on the shelf. Is it your favorite food? Who cares? We are in a national emergency. Feed your body. You might have to go a week without eggs. You might have to go a week without butter (which was absolutely cleared out at my HEB). So please don't rush to a crowded grocery store and increase your chance of infection, stress yourself out, and add even more panic into your life. Eat what's there now and we'll all look back on this in a couple of years when we are freely eating our favorite foods with a greater appreciation for them.
  2. Trading volume skyrocketed at the very end of the day, looking at the chart. Maybe a bunch of positions playing wait and see until right before the final bell?
  3. Yeah, but my nerves are from knowing that my niche field isn't going to have a market for the foreseeable future. Barring a miracle, I might not last through next week, maybe even then end of today. Thankfully, we planned for this and I have other things in the works that come to fruition in about 18 months.
  4. No CR, but markets and oil started going south during Trump's PC. Don't know why. Glancing at a CNBC article, Trump said that he might intervene in RU and KSA's oil price war. No idea, other than that.
  5. I really wish HEB would setup a web cam for their stores so people can see if there is a line or not. That way people can monitor it to see when the best time to go would be.
  6. Same boat. The 5 year old is about ready to explode, at this point. 2 year old is moody, but she's handling it better.
  7. That side of things I am unfamiliar with. My area is JoAs, leases, etc. I would assume it all depends on the force majeure language in all of the agreements across the board. Courts will dissect the hell out of specific language in the clause and the how that language is commonly understood in the business. Honestly, I don't think a whole lot of companies will have the stomach to fight over force majeure in this climate. Get into a legal battle that isn't resolved before one of you goes bankrupt? Pretty unappealing.
  8. So many questions. Would they slash allowables across the board? Say, 25%? Moratorium on new wells? Would that trigger force majeure and toll current leases? I'm not an attorney and this isn't legal advice, but force majeure will depend on the clause in the individual leases. The most common clause contains the language "circumstances beyond the reasonable control of the lessee." Also, in New York, the courts ruled in 2012 that a fracking moratorium wasn't enough to trigger the force majeure clause, so I'm sure that case will be pointed to a lot if the RRC throws out a moratorium. There's another 1993 Texas case that states that the forcing of a well to be shut-in by the RRC didn't trigger force majeure, either, but the circumstances around that case dealt with a producer who overproduced and were then ordered to shut-in to make up for it. So, I'd say that if you had a producing well that was fully in compliance and the company was actively operating and marketing the oil and then gets shut down due to the RRC, the operator has a good shot at triggering the clause. Marginal wells and leases that go past their primary term without any operations done in good faith to cause a producing well, less of a chance.
  9. Economic fear of China has been lightly stoked for two decades now. We have been warned that they are buying up all our debt, they're buying up our real estate, they're undercutting our manufacturing, they're interjecting themselves into Africa to undercut us there, they're dumping our trash into the ocean instead of recycling it like they were paid to do, they're skirting international agreed standards on all number of things, and the list goes on and on. The resentment against China has been simmering this whole time, regardless of how culpable America is in all of it. I think the simmering will reach boil after this.
  10. Or the market doesn't believe in the price rebound.
  11. My grandparents are members of a small town Church of Christ with an average age of probably close to 70 that I was sure would continue meeting, 100 parishioners strong. I was shocked to learn that they are taking two weeks off and planning on delivering communion on a scheduled one on one basis. Sunday communion is probably the single most important practice for those baptised in the Church of Christ, so I knew that would continue, but to have them cancel service all together is more than I ever expected. I'll take my small victories where I can find them, right now.
  12. I'm curious as to why her being from New Orleans made spring break extra important to her.
  13. Lady has not provided evidence of death threats, thereby violating the "pics or didn't happen" rule of the internet, removing all doubt that she is an awful person.
  14. Lady posts on FB that HEB is just fine, everything is ok because she was there and there was inventory and no crowd. Gets called out that she had tested positive for corona prior. Lady starts trickling out qualifiers and gets called out on each one until she finished it with "I stayed in the car." But she's obviously lying about staying in the car. People are angry and now she claims she is getting threatened.
  15. It's all essentially worthless, right now. There are a lot of marginal wells out there that will quickly test the "reasonably prudent operator" standard for determining if a lease is HBP if this doesn't turn around by Q4.
  16. Saudi capitulates, I think Ryskey's take is solid. I also think a hefty COVID stimulus that involves money direct to households will also get us moving in the right direction. Oh, and war. A war would get demand back to where it needs to be.
  17. For parents of middle schoolers and high schoolers with gaming PCs or XBox, the game Sea of Thieves has announced they will be free to play for the next 5 days. It is an absolute time suck and will keep them busy. It is a multiplayer with communication, so they may experience some foul language from other players, but those settings can be adjusted to where they don't receive communications from strangers.
  18. Stay safe, stay calm, make good choices. A lot of us have been in this business over a decade. There will be a place for us when the dust settles. Just keep your powder dry until then.
  19. We've got 13 days left under the current OPEC+ agreement. Best case scenario is both Putin and MBS see the light during that time and come together on a new OPEC+ agreement. Worst case scenario is that these guys have made it personal. Then we'll be hurting as long as both of them is still in charge. My bet is on MBS going first, for sure.
  20. If Russia and SA pump at full capacity playing their game of chicken? I think we could hover around $20 until one of them blinks. Then we'll have a lot of oversupply to dig through with whatever demand is left. The more this all plays out, the more I think they bail way sooner than later. They were barking at each other before the shit really hit the fan. I wonder how much of where we stand today, as an entire world, entered into Putin's calculus when he took the first shot across the bow by telling SA to take a walk on extended cuts. After Putin pissed them off, they countered by saying they'll open ever spigot sticking out of the sand starting April 1. Both of those ideas aren't looking so hot now.
  21. Almost all major manufacturers are coming out with an EV model this year or next. They aren't going to just dump all the marketing and R&D because of it. Hell, even Hummer is releasing an electric model. EVs are no longer priced as luxury vehicles, especially the models on the horizon. The days of the Tesla Roadster, Model S, and whatever letter they gave their SUV are over. A popular product at an affordable price compared to ICE models that are slowly becoming unpopular. I think a lot of people in the industry are seriously underestimating how bad a large chunk of millenials and nearly all generation Y and zoomers are wanting an electric vehicle over an ICE vehicle. Generation Y and Zoomers are within 5 years of having the purchasing power to do it, too.
  22. I think the fundamentals are showing, and some articles (including CNBC) are indicating, that we aren't going to break out above $40 for the foreseeable future. IF Russia and SA truly do flood the market next month, we're going to probably see 30 year lows in price that might linger just long enough (5 years or more) for electric vehicles to get significant market penetration and other renewables to get a lot of steam before the economy recovers from all of this. There is some simmering fear that we may have hit peak demand. But if one thing is absolutely certain, it's that people are shitty at predicting what the oil market will do. Iran and SA could start tearing each other apart in a hot war and send prices spiking to $100 in 2022 for all we know.
  23. Every generation has their life-altering event. We had 9/11. Let's hope this is her one and only.
  24. I'm getting a slight cough that has me getting all paranoid. We went to Hawaii last week in a whole family trip. If it was a trip paid for by me, we wouldn't have gone. But here I am now with most likely seasonal allergies being paranoid about every cough that happens once an hour.
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