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hornmpa96

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by hornmpa96

  1. 3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    So, Correa basically got the same contract as Judge.  I know the years are different but both of them have undoubtedly been signed to play out their entire useful economic life on this contract.  So, pretty simple and easy to compare the deals- total WAR between now and the end of the deal.


    Who you got?  Do either make it to breakeven on the contract (WAR going for 10M per this offseason so 35 for Carlos and 36 for Judge) terms?  

    The bet on Carlos is he is a HOF guy.  He got 40 WAR through 27 season, another 35 for the rest of his career gets him there.  That's what HOF guys do.  I bet Carlos gets there.  I think he likely has a monster quasi MVP level season in him somewhere between here and the end of his prime- 7 WAR (he's done that twice- finishing 5th in the MVP voting in 21), plus 4 seasons more or less as good as this past one (which wasn't awesome and amazing just solidly really really good) which came in at 5.4 WAR.  SO- 7 + 5x4 ='s 27 WAR in the next 5 years. That is his absolute Apex prime for 2 more years probably and 3 years of extended/late prime.  That would put him at 27 War, needing 8 more  WAR from age 33 on.  As a frame of reference Biggio had 14 WAR from age 33 on (would have been 16 if not for the negative 2.1 greaser he put up at age 41) Bagwell had 18 WAR from Age 33 on, Lance Berkman had 9 WAR from age 33 on and none of those guys were known as aging super gracefully or having an awesome tail end of their career.  

    So- for Correa to make good he needs 1 quasi MVP type season (think 21), 4 all star/quasi all star type seasons (think 2022) and then be playable for 3 or 4 years after all that's done.  The last 4 years he could be completely out of the league or a utility guy/veteran presence and still have made good on his contract.  This contract makes sense and he will get there if he stays healthy- which with him is a monumentally huge risk. 

     

    Judge man- that one I can't imagine working out.  The number of guys as big as he is that didn't fall off a cliff in baseball history is essentially zero.  I get why the Yanks felt like they had to make that deal but it is a baaaaaad deal for them I'd be almost positive.   

    Now that Carlos has his guaranteed contract, I wonder how many seasons he will get to 500 at-bats. In his 2 back-to-back contract years, he hit that mark and had the stats to match. When he’s in the line-up, he will put up HOF numbers.

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  2. One note on Capital Farm Credit - If there is anything unique about your situation, then I would look for a local lender. I purchased a ranch several years ago and needed essentially a bridge loan as I was waiting on some severance payments. I explained the whole situation to Capital Farm Crédit multiple times and was told the loan wouldn’t be an issue. After the seller accepted my offer, Capital Farm Credit couldn’t deliver and I had to scramble to find a new lender. Eventually went with Crockett National Bank and they were excellent.

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  3. 2 hours ago, CHIEF said:

    That is an old man, looks 6.5 y.o. He is ready to be shot.

    CHIEF

    Based on some pics from last year and earlier this year, I had him at 5.5 but he certainly has run himself down over the past 2/3 weeks. On my place, we are generally shooting the 4/5 year olds that we don’t want to feed anymore and trying to get everything else to 7.

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  4. 6 hours ago, Incredulity said:

    Are you claiming that corporations can take the home mortgage interest deduction?

    They are taking an unlimited business interest expense deduction available to real estate rental businesses. Additionally they are entitled to tax depreciation on the rental property.

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  5. 6 minutes ago, Satchel said:

    Picking your own voters didn’t work out so well for congressional Democrats in NY. 

    New York happened because of their 2014 reforms to create a bipartisan commission and a provision disallowing partisan gerrymandering. They ended up with a court drawn map which created competitive districts. If they stuck with picking their own voters, the Ds would control the House.

    You play to win the game.

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  6. 5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    I mean- you are talking about 3 HOFers, one of which is one of the top 5 pitchers in the history of baseball in the Atlanta trio vs a HOFer, 1 time all star and a guy who many on this thread argued should be a bullpen swingman as late as August because he’s “done it before” so forgive me if I don’t say that’s the top 3 greatest pitchers ever. That’s not a slight on our guys. That’s a nod to reality. 

    That’s only because Framber and Javier are early in their careers. In 10 years, we may know those guys will be headed to Cooperstown. Framber did something historic this year and nobody will be taking Cristian Javier out of the rotation anymore.

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