
horn4life
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Senior Citizen Issues - Assisting Your Parents
horn4life replied to ROFL BOX's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
Yeah - that sucks. In that he just wants to fade out and it will all end up falling on you. My Suggestion is get hospice involved right now. If he has any objections, explain this is to help you not him. AND - they may be able to do things like get him bathed. If he is not going to wear the vest let the hospital know and return it. I understand your frustration. I am STILL dealing with the results of not listening to me when had the listened.... layers upon layers of better outcome. It is laugh or cry, and often both at the hilarity and darkness of certain moments. But look into Hospice. -------- I did not realize how long it had been since I posted on this thread. But my mom passed days after my last post in August of last year. Hospice was amazing, and so was the Neptune Society. Can't recommend both highly enough. The good news is my Dad is doing really well. He actually told my BIL he really enjoys living at The Enclave. He has always been a oiner and I think it helped move past my mothers death. He still has dreams with her most every night so he likes that. He got the place to get some loaner pedometers and has started some sort of walking club. He is well outside the norm, and is kicking ass in all honesty. But it's just fucking hard sometimes. My sister has not been remotely the help I thought or expected, so there is that. But that is everyone's situation on this thread I imagine. Do the best you can with your folks. And try to find a good hospice place as early as possible. You may not be ready, but having a phone number to call of somebody you have interviewed are have a great recommendation on will give you peace of mind during the decline. Mainly there are a shit ton of things they can help you with once they are on hospice care. -
Already did. I can be right long term and wrong short term, it's happened before and it cost me. Can't fight momentum and exuberance, despite what I see coming. My Dad just told me with all the fantastic news with tariffs, along with impending peace in the Middle East and Ukraine the market is going on a multi-year run to the moon! For me I will likely give back about double what I made on PLTR, this AM in all likelihood. Or worse depending on the drop. I'm still mostly cash, but FOMOing today. Longer term I still see inflation hamstringing the fed, and rates not receding to where they will need to be to add another big chunk onto the debt/deficit. It will be interesting to see the appetite for US retailers to bite off 30% in additional expenses on china imports. You have to assume some retailers are going to have to start paying the fees, or potential have the problem of empty shelves and no income. The costs will be passed on to US consumers, and this is going to take more time. But it's coming, and inevitable. PS- seeing some of the surges in retailers may give me an opportunity shortly to the downside.
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Well last of my long position disappeared Friday when my PLTR shares all closed ITM on the covered calls I did. But can't cry over 12% return in under 3 weeks. If only I could repeat that over and over. Of course all those gains are getting wiped out this AM as I bought back into UVIX before the Fed stood pat. Guess I will sit on those losses until at least the end of the week to see the inflation numbers. The exuberance for 30% tariffs on Chinese imports, is apparently priced in at a number 10% or lower? With the market looking for reductions past the apparent 30% tariffs for 90 days. So if the market is pricing in a tariff expense far below the 90 day cost. If you are businessman do you start bringing in the goods with that "new and improved" 30% tsriff rate? Do you pull your inventory out of the bonded warehouses and pay the tariff? Or do you hold pat waiting for the next pull back? And how does the market react when the inflation numbers start showing movement in the wrong direction? Anyhow- like I said so very many pages back. Would have been the most interesting spring ever to be taking Eco 301. Today it's risk on! Hope all you guys back big time today!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
It's because I remember shit, and I'm old...I guess I thought the $250/500K was in addition! But much better to have the flexibility to make multiple homestead sales and convert some of that gain into tax free cash. But if you are young and willing to move around a couple times, and are handy remodeling, it's a great way to grow your net worth! Especially if you start off with this as a strategy. I was explaining this to a roofing guy who was young and explaining that hell he already had connections for the most expensive part of many remodels, a roof! And just knowing folks that can help you build shit can help turn that sweat equity into real equity. Looks like you might be able to take the deduction technically every 2 years + 1 day? Assuming closing on sale and purchase of homesteads at same time. But what is also interesting to me is that 5 year window. It opens up the ability to move to a new homestead and convert your existing homestead into a rental unit to benefit from more years of appreciation. While at the same time remodeling your new homestead. The we get the mortgage finance folks in on the game. And then you are using your homestead in combination with a BRRR strategy. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Ok I stand corrected. I thought if you bought a homestead of equal or great value you could defer all the gain. I guess I wasn't contemplating exceeding the $500K cap when I actually thought about this a few years back. So the exclusion is the 121 Exclusion. According to Rocket I can use this every two years? This would be important to me, because if I were to talk the wife into making a homestead move, It would be to convert our current homestead into an income producing property, while I remodeled a new homestead. This is the scenario I am considering trying to pull off. I have a neighbor whose parents home has been vacant for a couple years. Full of Christmas hoarding crap. But she is needing to get some cash finally, and the property is in trust, and I was nervous about trying to buy the property from a trust. Mainly as I was going to give her almost nothing down, with a future balloon payment. Or interest only loan to keep my costs down by renovating. In this scenario I could convert my current homestead into a rental, thus opening the door for a future 1031 exchange. In this scenario my wife and I (filing jointly) could Sell the property (within the 2 or 5 years homestead 121 limitation) and take $500K cash out tax free, and defer any additional gain beyond that amount into a new investment property using the 1031 exchange. In essence converting the homestead residual cap gains into rental property equity, correct? HOWEVER - I thought I was limited in taking the 121 cap gain exclusion to once every 5 years? Rocket is saying once every two years? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
So if I buy my homestead for $500K and via appreciation it becomes worth $1.2 million. I cannot then sell the place for $1.2 million, buy a new homestead for $700K million and pocket the $500K exclusion? I thought as long as you put the rest of the gain back into your homestead, you could defer tax on that gain? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I wish I knew when I was young about the 2 out of the last 5 year Homestead cap gain exclusion. Buy a fixer upper, fix it, refi to get cash back out, then rent it. Move into new homestead, that you remodel. Then sell first place, before, and refi the newly improved homestead. The 5 year clock starts ticking again on the second homestead. BUT you can only take the exemption once every 5 years. Where else can a married couple pick up that sort of tax free income? No place. But past $500,000 you are paying cap gains. Unless you roll all the non-excluded gain into a new homestead. Then there is no gain since that gain got rolled into the new homestead. -
Funniest thought that popped into my head yesterday was when I heard that Bessent was being sent away to Switzerland to negotiate a deal after his testimony yesterday. I thought to myself, maybe China figured why not negotiate with a guy who can barely string his words together? I was thinking the Chinese might think Bessent has turrets, or is on the autism spectrum after his testimony before congress. I will say this, Bessent can read. Answer questions in a coherent manner? Eh.. not so much. If I were the Chinese, I would think Bessent is exactly who I would want to negotiate with. A guy who is running on the warning track about to run into a wall, he will locate about the time he hits it. In other words I would talk to Bessent to take up his time, and let the wall get closer, while we muse endlessly about who actually pays for tariffs... Then Bessent will cry out (for you olds) like Tattoo on Fantasy Island. But instead of yelling "the plane, the plane!" He will yell out the debt ceiling limit I promised to warn you about? It's happening tomorrow! Anyhow - good luck to all of you today.
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All things Apple, the tech not the fruit
horn4life replied to sachick's topic in Business and Markets
Sort of interesting to me as I have a buddy I have been trying for several years to get to learn about selling covered calls for Income. He has almost 3000 shares that have been ust sitting in the account. He ever borrowed on his margin to buy some stuff for his business, but won't sit down and learn about selling covered calls. So I started buying only Apple with covered calls. So I can show him, yes the stock has faded, but not nearly as much when you let somebody pay you to buy your shares in the future. -
Yesterday I would have been smarter. But any sort of record move in anything, sort of says you should trim a bit, yes? And a few folks are starting to pull guidance...
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Because the data is all old, right? As most of the sales for comps, are the same sales the owner is aware of, if they are sophisticated in their market. So what's your solution? I guess I would tell them this is what the math says, but I think this market data while the most accurate I have, is not reflective of today's market? I mean it's the rock and the hard place. You list too high, house sits customer is pissed. You tell them the real low number and they flinch? I guess I go for the flinch, and explain that I am trying to sell the house, not just list it... But as an appraiser you could indeed justify the $1.1 million, for a loan. correct? 😉 Because you can show your work... *** What sort of rates are you guys view as what your buyers are "looking for" to pull the trigger? Or a recent range of acceptability with the ups and downs. -
Well it will be interesting to see whee PLTR ends the week. Closed at nearly $124 before earnings, now bouncing below $114. My covered calls exercise at $108 and $115 Friday. And I would like to keep those shares committed at $115 to sell calls again on again, but if they disappear I won't cry. Sort of interesting that PLTR and NVDA now have nearly identical share pricesi So any of you guys trimming your SPY positions after that nice run up? Or or you staying pat long? I am thinking of taking a little bite shorting for June, the longest upward run (that I did not fundamentally understand) in US history. Or that was yesterdays plan before my day went to shit.
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So we are going with incompetence? 😉
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I should have bought more PLTR - Right now I am upside capped due to my calls for next Friday. Those $150 May 9th calls I considered yesterday at close would have been wise... But I am still more on the sidelines at this point.
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So GDP contraction? Who gives a fuck! To me that is sort of feels how the market is pricing in what's coming. Basically shrugging off the numbers. The market also have what, 4 cuts for the Fed priced in right now? First coming next month! This is what makes me nervous about starting to truly allocate long. As the optimism against the backdrop of what I see coming simply isn't making a lot of sense, from my perspective. But Momentum, is the mojo! But that door can swing both ways unfortunately, I think DOW (the antiquated one) was up a couple hundred this AM before a little pull back. But good time ahead apparently.
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This is actually an area where AI will make that stream into what it was meant to be (or sold to be). One thing that was interesting this morning was a guest on Bloomberg Rob Arnott and we as Shorting both sides of a 3x ETF trade. Basically to capture the volatility drag @52-80 (THX). But the idea of shorting both a 3x long and 3x short? Pretty crafty play. He said the annual premium on one short trade was 7000 basis points! And he still made money. Anyhow, I knew nothing about the guy but caught the" 3x short short" and had to rewind and see his take. Anyhow interesting, especially the volatility drag, and his explanation of the mechanics.
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Well there is no bourbon on the shelves in Canada right now, so that is a dead market right now. So does this mean my "investment" in the whiskey cabinet is now degrading due to something other than consumption? Or will my small tequila holdings rise faster than my brown water consumption? No way in hell... I am doing my part!
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Yeah I rode it up, busted down, then just gradually bought in, using covered calls on the bounces to create income. Then on the steeper dips buy in deeper with in the money call options, and way OTM calls in the distant future as throwaways (assuming OTM expiration) in case the calls I sold on a bounce might all exercise on an untimely big bounce. But with the volatility of the stock if it both my calls are exercised I make like 9% in two weeks. Now earnings reaction could make folks dump too, idk? But momentum drives this thing up and down. But basically I am getting back in a price 6% less than the last shares I sold. NOT FREE like you! But I need to add some more upside hedge and I also think their private sector growth is gonna be good. I do worry about penetration in Europe being an issue, with a potential Ukraine pull out? Or Karp might be crazy enough to just give the tech to Ukraine, and become the darling of Europe? I like that last one.
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OK had to get a taste of hedge crack... PLTR May 9th covered calls at $108 and $115, with my cost avg $99.00. So I will probably fuck myself both directions.... 40K dow within sight.
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Anybody here long on PLTR? It's back to where I sold off, and software is one spot where tariffs don't hurt your bottom line. But I came in, bet against and got out both times, as if you get caught on the wrong side of momentum it can move up and down pretty violently. Should have just tossed some money at some $100 calls as an upside hedge when it was bouncing off the low 80's. It should have a resiliency, but now I have a lot more sensitivity to that high valuation. But my concerns are mainly inflation handcuffing the Fed over time. And none of those have hit the market statistically, so a short term covered call on PLTR might Bot PLTR and MP are about where I sold the last of my shares. The PLTR ride got me the opportunity to take some downside risk that played out. MP - was one I should have bought in the mid-teens but my shares drifted in the mid $25s and then my stop hit one day. Both have good long term Trump Administration upside. So I may take a few covered call bites as a hedge back on some shit I can either make some call income on, or end up with a stock at a discount I think will do well longer term.... So... PLTR... I do like that company... Shit... this is day three? of a softer tone on trade?
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Snack food exposure mostly. They overplayed their hand on price increases as well IMHO. The weight loss drugs weigh on the snack end as well. Just more exposure to more headwinds. And I think the profits from the cheap high calorie junk food in small packages is eroding with overall less fat people due to GLP1 drugs. And more potential exposure to tariffs on raw materials for snacks. KO - main exposure is aluminum cost. And I believe (from memory) that their solution there would be to shift to bottles if necessary. So not the investor concern from the fat /tariff perspective for Coke than with Pepsi.
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Unemployment came in steady and downward on continuing. Which is a bit of a surprise to me, as I expected a small creep upward on continuing. Good report. But sort of interesting that there has been no dialog between the USA government and China. A good chunk of my wife's inheritance will be in PepsiCo Stock, so interesting to see a bedrock dividend/growth company in such a rough patch. But the fat drugs, tariff pressures on supply chains, and the bonus of needing to potentially adjust across that chain with dye removal. Earnings miss and guidance cuts due to tariff uncertainty. SWA - No guidance on macroeconomic uncertainty, cutting flights P&G - price hikes likely, cuts outlook due to uncertainty Basically we need a tweet to give the market some guidance today... 😉 And PLTR heading to the moon!
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Man PLTR is closing in on where I sold the last of mine. Should honestly been buying it as a hedge vs my UVIX. The opposite of my initial play. But fuck I love the company very long term, but up $8 to $102 pre- May 5 earnings seems a little rich.
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I guess to me, the question I keep asking myself is... Will past fundamentals like unemployment rising and inflation rising cause a reassessment of high valuations? With so much computer trading I am trying to think if that fundamental aspect of past markets with rising unemployment and inflation is baked into the big boys models? IF so, does that not also indicate that if these fundamentals head in the wrong direction the computer trading models will begin to trim? Or is the modeling so current that the new AI based models have already used more current market actions and reactions to a greater degree in their trading models? I guess I am sort of asking is the AI modeling so good now that it is already discounting past trends? Or are the past trends so fundamental (like bounce backs after 20% losses rebounding sharply) in the programing that the recent data is given no more, or less weight, because of more recent timliness? If that makes sense?
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