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horn4life

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Everything posted by horn4life

  1. Te more I hear Howard Lutnick talk, the more comfortable I am shorting this market. Because as Lutnick just told me this 1st quarter is all Biden, Second quarter might be Biden's, and third quarter will be Trump's. You see Lutnick did present an exact economic model of the usual Presidency. As usually it takes at least several quarters of gradual change as policies trickle though the economy. That is indeed the norm. But Lutnick KNOWS that this is not a normal transition and that the tariffs take more like a few weeks or two months to start seeing that inflation. The complete disconnects with reality that Secretary Lutnick repeatedly espouses, are what make me have such grave concerns for this market. You can say anything politically. But the problem is folks don't believe clear bullshit when it comes to their money. And pretending that this shock to the markets is actually "Biden's fault" to own? Which means that the market is actually betting against the Biden policies of the past? And is no longer forward looking? I gook a pretty good loss yesterday, and looking at this mornings numbers I should be facing another decent loss, Instead, after hearing Lutnick's delusion, I can only assume his delusion is a reflection of cabinet level economic discussions? Fucking Lutnick, now I almost feel obligated to add to my fucking risky bets against this market, even in anticipation of a beating. Or as Lutnick would say... against Biden's market... Another teeny tiny bit of UVIX premarket.
  2. Or you could invest in today's stock market! But at least you would have long odds with that parlay!
  3. Well NOT going 0-13 vs OU could have made certain that would not be an issue... Oh wait.. 0-14. I missed one... 😉
  4. I expect Vandy to have extremely strong Referee play in the second half...
  5. Weaver is just a pest! Glad he's finally healthy again. maybe these kids are just want to keep playing games? I know I would. I would also be disappointed as hell with this year's performance. But that's the thing about tournaments, all you have to do is win the next one. What I am seeing today is what i hoped to see back when stockings were still on our mantel.
  6. OK this is getting fucking fun
  7. well sort of happy I was too tired to go see music. They are playing about as well as I've seen... of course I was also slow fast forwarding a lot of taped games watching the score ebb from hope, to hopeless.
  8. You know if I had a bookie I might actually take Texas +2.5. I think they take Vandy. But there is a reason that I don't bet anymore. Texas -12, final score UCLA 66 - Texas 3... that was painful. So I might as well go out bold. Win today over Vandy, and then the upset of A&M. I also predict Tre gets at least two buckets in this game! oops typed that befoer I realized the game was already on...
  9. All they really need to do is win 9 games in a row, and they are National Champions! If I my lazy ass math guess was right. It would be sort of fun to beat both Vandy and A&M. ahhh... hope springs eternal
  10. What brand are those wading boots? They look comfy!
  11. horn4life

    SXSW 2025

    Well Dad... yeah... What good is being in a punk band if you tell you Dad everything? 😉 You know, I cannot recall what Conner was talking about, but I thought it was a show? I think I had just tuned in, but the query perked my ear. I thought it had to be like, "Die motherfucker Die!"
  12. horn4life

    SXSW 2025

    Jimmy - looks like your kid has an early show I can hit up! 5;45 today at Mohawk! RSVP on phone. Got a hall pass from wife, so I think I am going to try my first cap metro train ride today. Also!- Is it DEE spitz or DIE spitz pronunciation. I think you addressed this somewhere, but Kevin Conner the moring DJ on Sun Radio pondered this question the other day. I thought you said DEE Spitz but WTF do I know. --------------------- Here is the blackboard at Continental with tiny as shit writing, the SXSJ day by day lineup, and the SoCo Stomp poster. Fot those of you trying to move around and getting a better timeline of who plays when. On the SXSJ poster bands at bottom open and top is closer. Have fun out there. And LOOK EVERYWHERE when crossing the street. I saw two close calls in 3 hours yesterday. ANd please! for the sake of your families and the post surgery recovery nurses downtown, do NOT get on one of those fucking scooters. Shit tons of head injuries from those bitches. Whoo Hooo - old people spring break is here!
  13. Thought we might see a trickle of an upwards push on inflation this morning. But inflation has held steady. So markets up a bit this AM, but I am going to hold my negative position at least through next week. If the unemployment numbers tomorrow do not have much upwards push, the market should react positively. But not having a bad inflation number today was a very good thing for the market! Hard to believe this is only 8th trading day of the month...
  14. Ukraine is fucked. Because Putin own Trump. Nothing more, nothing less.
  15. Well... Davy Crockett made a hat out of one of his relatives. I remember I caught a really big boy. 15 years ago. The second I picked that cage up, i realized how heavy he was. About he time he flipped over on his back, and stuck that skinny arm out and took a swipe at me.
  16. OK - it's been a LOOOOOOoooooonnnnnnnngggggg time since I ate beef ribs at Iron Works. I honestly had forgotten about them. And then I remembered many stained dress shirts in the mid 80's. Do they stack up anymore? Lord I cannot even remember the last time I ordered a beef rib, and I know when I did it was at Iron Works. Please tell me it's at least good enough to get my nostalgia on to make it worth the parking. The great thing about Austin and the surrounding area, is you can't make a living long with sub-par BBQ. But at $20+ a pound... it better be good! Anyhow appreciate feedback on if should check out iron Works again. or tell me where else to get a beef rib plate?
  17. horn4life

    SXSW 2025

    THIS
  18. horn4life

    SXSW 2025

    I would think you could find street parking near ACC? PSA - if you are free at 5pm today, go by C-Boys on SoCo and get some free crawfish! Free crawfish and Zydeco Music courtesy of Lafayette Live. Free Lonestar I think if you RSVP. Anyhow that will be my SXSW kick off... with a drift by Continental and SXSJ to take pics of lineups for timing.
  19. found this -The wash sale rule means that if an investment is sold at a loss and then repurchased within 30 days before or after the sale, you cannot claim the initial loss for tax purposes. The 30 days on either side of the sale, plus the day of the sale, translates into 61 days of what is called a “wait period.” This is the time during which you cannot buy the same or similar security.
  20. So I have a few questions about how options are taxed. Since i was had a shit ton of disallowed losses a couple years ago, I want to try and avoid those going forward. So tell me where I am wrong!!! Might be everywhere! 1) If I buy and equity using a covered call. And the call expires OTM, there is not a taxable transaction because I have not sold the stock? Correct? 2) So if I am correct on #1, then you could conceivably sell calls repeatedly on the same shares, if the ALL fell OTM, and the basis value of the stock would just fall. Correct? So I think I am correct on above. But am not certain, and since I have not given this much thought I thought easier to come ask here. What I am trying to figure out is how are the costs of rolling, or closing options positions treated? From the perspective of disallowed losses??? For example: Lets say I have a $50 stock that I buy, and sell a covered call a month ahead to sell the Stock for $55. So my cost basis if $45 The stock moves upwards past the $55 mark by a few cents going into the expiration. What is the best strategy from a tax perspective? Do you toll the stock out endlessly potentially to avoid a gain? This is the part I do not get, since I have no personal tax history to draw on. How is the cost side of the roll taxed? I see a loss for the cost on my books, but how is it treated? Anyhow thinking about it last night after a couple Ritas was not giving me any clarification (not surprisingly) ANY LINK ANYWHERE THAT SIMPLY EXPLAINS THIS? PSA - If you are in Austin, you can at least get free crawfish today! C-Boys at 5pm. If you RSVP you get a lonestar too I think. And while the markets are sucking, perhaps sucking the heads a few free mudbugs and some Zydeco music might ease the pains of the day.
  21. Maybe I am looking at this backwards. Rocket is basically a financing entity. If I am Rocket, is not every mortgagor that wants to move an opportunity for two loans? One for the existing mortgagor for the new home. And a new mortgagor for the property being sold that you have carried the note on for X amount of years. Just as many agents might negotiate a lower rate on a sale and buy paired together. Might Rocket looking a the mortgage market in the same way? Knowing a deal is there, and trying to get both sides for a tiny discount in rate? I would think Rocket is the lead marketer. Selling the "Redfin package" that allows a point(+/-?) On both loan originations, and still make pretty good bank? THIS IS A QUESTION? From the professional mortgage lender side of the equation does my meandering make sense mathematically? I have not idea honestly, but I am trying to figure out why this is a good idea for Rocket and these are my post- Gloria's rita musings. So might not make any fucking sense at all..
  22. Yeah... I have fucked myself multiple times with this. And I did not add that into the equation.
  23. First off. I feel fucking bad, knowing that nearly everyone around me is losing big bucks in their investment and 401K accounts. But betting against Trump is the easiest bet I have seen since I was not in the market in early january before covid. I am betting on a couple things 1) yes men are never good leaders 2) yes men in a small family owned company are great scapegoats for the son who inherited the business 3) Do you bet on some of the least qualified confirmed cabinet heads to run the largest company in existence? 4) There is a completely non-factual fairy tale about the success of the Trump Economy before Covid. Jobs did not increase from what the inherited. And the per cost for each additional added US Employee in the employment numbers skyrocketed, because... the Taxes and Jobs cut act, only cut taxes... and kept employment about the same pre $4 trillion borrowing hicky. 5) Mainly I am betting against this market because I remember the baseless (economically factual) exuberance last Trump go round. Super fucking smart people that absolutely believed easily refutable "achievements." You can fix stupid. But the cost is fucking up the economy insisting that some of the most basic economic principles do not exist. Because... When you can make $5 million every weekend off the American taxpayer at your country club. You are sort of a genius...
  24. I sure as hell don't see how overpaying for Redfin is a good deal. To be honest, rather than merging, I would be a seller of both right now. it's like a marriage between ugly people hoping for beautiful children... if there is enough cash flow. Is it desperation, looking for a new captive source of financing? I don't see the margin in loans to justify the premium for Redfin. BUT, from what it sound like from everyone here who deals with Redfin. Mortgage funding is difficult for the Redfin dumbass agents. Maybe that's the angle. If you made the agents not so stupid... it would be easier to close a Redfin mortgage?
  25. Yeah that's the most bullshit thing ever. Why not be able to simply offset the loss with a gain? I guess somebody has to pay for that carried interest benefit...
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