I don’t think it will hurt as much as some people think. The 2008 financial crisis or what I call the “bush recession” was an electoral wipe out for republicans. The 2008 recession was by far the worst one since the Great Depression. Everyone was feeling the pain. Businesses were in bad shape, really hurting and nobody could find a job. There was 3 million openings and probably 8-10 million people applying for those scarce jobs. Unemployment was around 8% with an under employment rate of about 20-25%.
if a recession hit now, things would be different. Businesses are raking in record profits. Job openings are at 9.9 million and unemployment is 3.5%. Worst case scenario seems to be a 4.5 or 4.6% unemployment rate by the end of the year which is still pretty good. If you spread that 1% gain in unemployment about evenly all over the country I don’t think it would make a huge dent in things. Nearly everyone says a recession would be mild if it struck and I believe it.
the last few years the American electorate has impressed me from a nationwide perspective. We laugh at the idiots here in Texas who vote R no matter what. They support people who go after gays and transgenders instead of doing things that would help everyone like expanding Medicaid or legalizing pot. The voters made the right choice in 2018,2020, and 2022. I think we would win again next year. People know inflation is the hang over from the pandemic and not Biden’s fault. It’s a worldwide problem.