Irieguy
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Posts posted by Irieguy
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13 minutes ago, sidis said:
I am starting to believe you were lying. Not sure what kind of perverse motivation would drive that.
what an fascinatingly idiotic hill to die on. To use this as a launching point to act like a complete clown is somewhat inexplicable. But the self-satisfied nature of your horseshit is certainly telling.
In all seriousness, it was interesting to watch people that were SO sure that an 11 point swing could happen be absolutely incapable of defending that position.
@Huckleberry Made the best argument and concluded with, “That doesn't change the truth that most peopleoverestimate a single player's effect in most cases”
The rest of the arguments were … feeble.
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11 minutes ago, sidis said:
I am starting to believe you were lying. Not sure what kind of perverse motivation would drive that.
what an fascinatingly idiotic hill to die on. To use this as a launching point to act like a complete clown is somewhat inexplicable. But the self-satisfied nature of your horseshit is certainly telling.
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1 minute ago, NoName said:
feel more than free to just nuke my dumbass posts for getting pulled offsides.
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1 minute ago, NoName said:
you said:
you didn't ask for examples of betting odds when it happened before lol
you made a dumbass comment, got called out on it.
you then said you had access to historical odds records but didn't share them when called out on it
you gave a link that had futures odds but no historical odds.
you made something up in another really shitty attempt to troll about VY getting hurt.
fuck off clown.
As long as you have learned that examples need to be events that actually happened then I’m happy. @NoName
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2 minutes ago, utee94 said:
The Mr. Gatti's discussion is way more interesting than the betting line discussion.
So true. I did enjoy getting @NoName to dig up Colorado game details. A task he failed at.
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1 minute ago, Js1 said:
Wow we were so good, they lost 3 points
Exactly. @NoName is a dumb dumb.
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Just now, NoName said:
curious but when was that?
- in 2004, Texas beat Colorado 31-7, VY started and attempted 15 passes (no one else attempted any) - VY was still playing when the score was 31-7 in the 4th Q
- in October 2005, Texas beat Colorado 42-7, VY started and attempted 29 passes (Nordgren attempted 3) - VY was still playing when the score was 42-10
- in December 2005 in the B12 Conference Championship game Texas won 70-3, VY started and attempted 17 passes (Nordgren attempted 2) - VY was still playing when the score was 49-3.
Exactly. It never happened and can’t be used as an example. Just like you can’t use a hypothetical of VY getting injured before USC as an example. Retard. @NoName
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1 minute ago, ztejas said:
What the fuck are you talking about. Vince played 3/3 games against CU while at Texas.
Exactly. It never happened. Just like VY didn’t get injured before USC. Yet @NoName still used that as an example. He’s a retard.
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2 minutes ago, NoName said:
so to be clear, you ain't got shit. no historical datasets (if you did you would quickly do the less than 60 seconds of work outlined above and prove all of us wrong), no nothing.
you just say dumb shit, then when called out on it say more dumb shit? why
Because the requirement isn’t on me to prove there’s never been an 11 point swing. The biggest I could find was 8. But nothing I’ve said is anywhere near as dumb as using a complete hypothetical as an example. That’s next level stupid. 🤷🏻♂️ I couldn’t be that stupid even as a troll. 😂😂😂
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Just now, Irieguy said:
I’ll argue my side and you can feel to free to argue yours. 💥
Just kidding. I have an example. When Vince Young was injured before the Colorado game the spread moved by 7 points. This “type” of example is fun! 🃏
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Just now, NoName said:
if you actually have historical datasets around line movement from opening line to closing or opening to midweek to closing you should quite easily be able to tell us what the largest swings in those datasets are. it would be an incredibly easy way for you to prove your point.
but let's be honest, you don't or you would have already done so.
I’ll argue my side and you can feel to free to argue yours. 💥
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3 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:
And it was a contact injury on the QB you would also have to factor in a defensive player on that team being suspended indefinitely for an undisclosed violation of team rules.
Are you suggesting the two teams would play twice in back to back weeks? 🤯🤯🤯 Or that a defensive player sacked his own QB? 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
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1 minute ago, NoName said:
you are trying (and failing) to move the goal posts here because you made a dumbass comment.
the dumbass comment was:
and quickly an example was pointed out (VY > Matt N) which you have conveniently ignored.
no one has said an 11 point swing was or should be common. but that wasn't what you asked, you said "no single player in the history of football is worth 11 points" - which is a whole different request than "SHOW ME WHEN IT HAPPENED"
How can something that didn’t happen be an example? I’m genuinely curious.
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3 minutes ago, sidis said:
do you know of a place that warehouses such data? where do you expect to find empirical data on changes in betting lines that would allow for said analysis based on the subset of tens of thousands of games where one can find the specific parameters you lay out...namely the changes in betting lines for a game in which a start player is suddenly revealed to have been unexpectedly injured in the week between or that the player unexpectedly will be able to play after all?
Yes I do. ✅
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2 minutes ago, Tex-19 said:
Where are your examples if you're so knowledgeable about the subject?
I haven’t found any in my datasets. 🎩
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1 minute ago, conVINCEd said:
To move big it would also require a longer track record for the QB. Ewers has played 3.5 quarters of football.
Good point. But also, I’m looking for any example. Not just a Ewers example.
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Just now, CurlyDumps said:
In college? I posted a link to an article that explored some NFL lines and gave a handful of examples.
The biggest example in the article was 7. Not 11.
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1 minute ago, Tex-19 said:
It's probably not common at all because it would require the QB getting a surprise injury in the middle of the week. Example: this game. The opening line already knew Ewers was out.
I think you're right in the NFL but college is a different animal. If Wright played the full game vs Bama, we would have been lucky to score 10 points all game, much less in the first quarter like Ewers did.
But there’s been a lot of college football games played over the years. I mean thousands and thousands. And we can’t come up with one single example. So maybe it’s not a real thing that happens. 🤷🏻♂️
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Surly: 11 point line swings in college football are not that uncommon after a QB injury
Also Surly: Unable to provide a single example. Ever.
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Just now, CurlyDumps said:
Aaron Rodgers was worth 10 (when his backup stunk), so it's definitely not nearly as outrageous as you seem to be implying.
Then why can nobody produce an example of it happening? 🤷🏻♂️
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4 minutes ago, sidis said:
yeah, usc line was 7. if vy would have gotten hurt the week of the game, it would have either been taken off the board or it would have moved to 21.
Sorry for the confusion, I was looking for an actual line move not a hypothetical created by a random poster. If it’s fairly common, it should be easy to find.
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9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:
You're asking for an example where an elite QB with a very poor backup got injured after the opening line was published when nobody had any inkling he was hurt prior to that. I don't think the lack of examples is as dispositive as you think it is.
As others have noted, college lines are larger because there is more scoring (for multiple reasons) so if NFL QBs can move the line by more than a touchdown when they have professional backups then a college QB could absolutely be worth 11 points depending on starter/backup disparity.
That doesn't change the truth that most people overestimate a single player's effect in most cases but you got way out over your skis with that comment.
Thank you. Yes that is what I am asking for. Or any other instance where a line moved 11 points. It should be easy to find if it’s fairly common. 👍
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16 minutes ago, ONE YARD said:
I mean a pic six in the fucking end zone is worth that much of a point swing
Please let me know which QBs will throw a pick six this weekend. I would find that beneficial to my betting interests.
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20 minutes ago, ztejas said:
What a ridiculous comment. Plenty of QBs have been worth that much in recent years.
Cool. So show me an example.
UTSA VS Texas 9/17/22
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