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Irieguy

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Posts posted by Irieguy

  1. 4 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

    So you are saying Vegas sets the line in a way that the most popular side is the one that is most likely to lose. That way they make not just commission but actual money from a somewhat unbalanced set of bets.

    What I’m saying is that sports books executives at major books are like hedge fund managers and have leeway to take risk. They don’t always take risk but they pay a lot of money for information and will take “smart” risks. In the link you posted their “smart” risks didn’t work. But most times it will. They can also play it safe and try to balance 50/50 of course. But they don’t have to and often don’t. 

  2. 11 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

    Ok I have never placed a bet in my life and know nothing but what I gather from the article below is that it does not matter if the favored team covers or the underdog covers it only matters if the popular bet hits or if the big money bets hit since that is how a sports book loses money. Do I understand it correctly?

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/bloodbath-for-sportsbooks-as-nfl-betting-favorites-dominate-2461879/

     

    One other point, people who think major Vegas casinos balance bets are of an outdated mindset before mobile betting was popular. Mobile betting has increased the amounts of parlays. Parlays and other exotic bets make it nearly impossible to have the same “exposure” to two teams in one game. Think of all the crazy 10 team parlays people make. How do you balance all those team exposures?

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  3. Just now, DanTheHorn said:

    Ok I have never placed a bet in my life and know nothing but what I gather from the article below is that it does not matter if the favored team covers or the underdog covers it only matters if the popular bet hits or if the big money bets hit since that is how a sports book loses money. Do I understand it correctly?

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/bloodbath-for-sportsbooks-as-nfl-betting-favorites-dominate-2461879/

     

    For Rocco your local bookie, he wants to basically balance the action to ensure he doesn’t go broke.  If he has the same amount on both teams, he wins no matter what. For major Las Vegas sports books they pay big money to analytical teams provide the best lines. Big Vegas books have a secondary goal of balancing the bets but they trust their analytics and are happy to have an unbalanced game. In that situation the sports book has a slight rooting interest. 

  4. 3 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

    A close friend of mine runs a sportsbook at a major casino.

    I'll be sure to let him know that two guys on the internet think he's been doing it wrong for like 20 years.

    Y'all have a good night anyway.

    I’ll believe South Point sports book director Chris Andrews who said exactly, “”I like to have some balance, but it’s not my primary goal,” Andrews said.

    I’ll just assume that your friend gave you an oversimplified explanation. Or something got lost in translation. 

    @TexArcher
     

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  5. 1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

    What does that even mean, they trust their lines?  As in, they're baiting people to put more on one side or the other?  If that were true, the line wouldn't immediately move the other direction.

    What casinos want more than anything else is risk-free money.  See also, slot machines.  They get risk-free money at the sportsbook by having balanced lines, or as close to it as they can get.  If you think any casino is happy to have 75% of the action on one side of the betting because they feel like they got the point spread right, then you have no idea what you're talking about.

    You can say what casinos want or I can quote actual casino sports books executives. The sports books often are so confident in their line that they don’t mind more money coming in. So even as the money comes in they don’t move the line. 

    From Chris Andrews sports book expert, ““When it’s the latter, it’s because the book has decided to ‘take a position’ on a game based on what it thinks will happen. The book is still getting its -110 juice, but it’s also gambling a bit.”

     

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  6. 7 hours ago, TexArcher said:

    People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one."

    No, they don't.  Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points.  Nor do they care.  What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line.  If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free.  If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. 

    The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it.  Vegas does not predict games.

    You are absolutely wrong. Vegas is not overly concerned with having balanced lines. Your local bookie is because he runs the risk of going broke. Big Vegas casinos are happy to have the majority of action on one side because they trust their lines.


    Is it fact or fiction? I asked five longtime Las Vegas bookmakers about the assumption, and they all said it’s essentially fiction.

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/fact-or-fiction-do-sportsbooks-balance-bets-to-lock-in-profit-2538940/amp/

     @TexArcher

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  7. 2 hours ago, Captainant said:

    Naw dawg, TUBA! Although those plastic horns are fun, you can really make some noise with em lol. And they're cheap so you don't care if it gets knocked around in the stands like you might with a concern horn

    I was a concern horn for most of the game.  @Captainant

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  8. 2 hours ago, F250 said:

    Development is a factor. Quinn has played less than 3 games of college football. Nobody gets drafted high at a young age with less than two seasons of experience. It seems reasonable that his draft stock would be higher by playing the '24 season.

     

    Wrong. Josh Allen meets those criteria. He turned out ok. 🤷🏻‍♂️

  9. 38 minutes ago, Kermit said:

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    If you actually read the article, they explain why. 

    The article actually is eye-opening. The computer likes the veteran core that Utah has now. The Jazz might fuck around and win a couple too many games before Markannan, Clarkson, etc are shut down for injury or traded. They have mismatched pieces and will throw out some intentionally bad lineups but they have players. 

  10. 2 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

    Few team notes from IT:

      Reveal hidden contents

    Those common themes would be focus, intensity, a good week of practice, and of course, revenge.

    On Thursday, Steve Sarkisian touched on the revenge factor after beating only Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas State in conference last year. He gave a typically good Sark answer.

    “I felt like last season, we let a lot of games slip away. When you go through it that way, you can hear a lot of the negativity that comes with that. What’s wrong? Why can’t they finish? What happens in the second half? The players aren’t in good condition. The players aren’t strong enough. The coaches don’t make adjustments, right? They hear all that stuff. You have to find a way to flip that script and get it to where, what are we doing about it, how are we going about it, and what’s our mission? Inevitably, there’s a lot of these games we’re going back into the play these same teams. There’s gotta be a little bit of a sense of revenge, and not so much revenge on the opponent. Revenge on our own actions of how we performed in those moments in those games to ultimately go finish those ballgames.”

    Steve Sarkisian

    (He could probably swap the word ‘negativity’ with ‘observations’. The negativity was the result of negative outcomes, the observations just fell in line with the results. Common themes from last year appear to be a thing of the past and Sark and his staff deserve a ton of credit, as do the players.)

    This team is definitely locked in. IT joked with a source about how good things are right now compared to seasons past. There’s no drama, no discussion of replacing coaches, no transfer talk. Things are so good right now even the players with NFL futures don’t care about anything but the season.

    Sark has this team bought in. It might not be five-star culture yet, but four-and-a-half-star culture will work with this level of talent.

    It was yet another good week of practice. Tuesday was described as being physical and intense. There weren’t a lot of ‘good on good’ plays but they were spirited.

    Overall we’ve heard preparation for Iowa State has been good. “There’s a lot to prepare for with them, but the team is way more ready than last year. It’s a game where you have to communicate well and they’ve done that this year.”

    On offense there’s a lot of confidence in the game plan despite having a ton of respect for Iowa State’s defense. It was belabored they need to do a good job on 1st and 2nd down to stay ahead of the sticks. But even though Iowa State floods the field with coverage Texas will still take shots when they’re presented. Adrian Martinez passed for 245 yards on them last week.

    When you hear physical practice you have to feel a little sorry for the scout team. That got us wanting to check in to see which members of scout are giving the corresponding sides of the ball good looks. Names that were mentioned were Maalik Murphy, Jaden Alexis, and Gus Asel. “Murphy has made some big-time throws.” On defense we’ve heard about B.J. Allen and Larry Turner-Gooden. Ethan Burke has also made plays when on scout team.

    We’ll finish with Jahleel Billingsley. The tight end’s NCAA suspension was lifted this past week and he resumed practicing with the ones and twos after previously being on scout team. It’s unknown how many snaps he’ll get on Saturday, but we do know there are plays designed to take advantage of his hybrid, athletic ability. This would probably be a good week for him to get targets, but we’re not sure how quickly Sark will get him back out on the field.

     

    It’s about time that we got a Gus Asel update!!!

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  11. 36 minutes ago, Kermit said:

    The season hasn’t started yet. Anyone who starts off shitty is immediately going into tank mode. There’s Indiana, Charlotte, Utah, San Antonio, Houston, OKC, and Washington. Then there’s the play in teams who will gladly sit players for a shot at the bottom three. There’s also the slight possibility that Pop actually tries to win some games. I’m glad your doing projections before the first game is played, though.

    Oh, and injuries. Don’t forget about those. 

    Which play in teams from last year are candidates for the bottom 3?

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