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Burt Macklin

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Posts posted by Burt Macklin

  1. 1 hour ago, wood said:

    Yep. That's what I'm thinking. Just because he might be leaving the team doesn't mean he's going to another team. But who knows?

    You shut your whore mouth! He’s going to Ferrari, dammit! 

    • Like 2
    • Haha 6
  2. 22 hours ago, closetojumping said:

    I think a "Draft 20XX: Booms, Mehs, & Busts" would be a good thread every year where people log their picks. Problem is that I might be the only one thinks that, I guess.

    Anyway, in lieu of that, here are my thoughts on booms and busts, based on watching many of these guys for years and not giving a shit what NFL scouts think:

    Busts:

    - Malik Nabers - I've been mocking the views on this guy for years. That probably makes me an idiot since he's been so productive, especially this past year. I think that's a byproduct of his QB more than this guy being a uniquely talented player. I heard a draft guru this morning say that Nabers is the most explosive player in this draft with amazing stop and start skills. He's assumed to be a top 10 pick and I don't see Jamarr Chase. I think this guy posts pedestrian numbers in the pros.

    - Brian Thomas - Whatever my biases are against the hype for Nabers, they're more exaggerated for his teammate. This guy should not be a first round pick.

    - JJ McCarthy - We've hashed it up thread, but I think the idea of this guy going in the first round, much less the top 5, is absolutely absurd. He's a byproduct of hype from his former coach, the silly notion of the Next Tom Brady, and being a game manager of a national title winner. Jay Barker has to be nearly comatose in a state of shock that he missed his window by 32 years. AJ McCarron has to be seething somewhere. Greg McElroy was recently seen handing out his resume and highlight tapes at a scouting happy hour.

    - Dallas Turner - Take a look at his sophomore year and those are the numbers I expect for his first 3 years in the league. This guy is a loafing piece of shit unless he needs to get paid or he has a defenseless QB in his line of sight. I have to assume suspensions are going to impact his output as well.

    - Terrion Arnold - The Saban Effect is the primary driver for the love affair for this guy. I have heard scout after scout laud his willingness to get involved in the running game and his pass deflections while poo-pooing the fact that he spent his entire career getting picked on at Bama while McKinstry patrolled the other side of the field.

    - Xavier Legette - He can't run routes for shit. He has injury issues. He had one good season in college as one of the oldest guys on the field. Him being mentioned near the first round is a joke. 

    Booms:

    - Caleb Williams - I think he puts his off-field baby bullshit aside and gives the Bears the dominant QB player they have need for so long. 

    - Marvin Harrison Jr - This guy is getting knocked more than Jack Tripper's front door and it makes no sense. This is the best WR in the draft and will be an annual pro bowler.

    - Brock Bowers - I think he's the purest football player in the draft. He's tough, fast, hard-working, has great hands and will be a force against conventional match-ups. 

    - Jared Verse - The opposite of Dallas Turner in every way. I think he'll be a standout.

    - Jer'Zhan Newton - Maybe it's because I only watched 3-4 Illinois games last year, but in each one this guy was a disruption on the field on damned near every drive. He should be drafted around Murphy's pick yet I've seen him much lower. 

     - Payton Wilson - Similar to Newton, I felt like every game I saw with this guy in it, he was making plays and the offense had to worry about him constantly. 

    I haven't followed the draft nearly as much as I used to, but I'll throw my hat in the ring because even the experts are mainly just throwing shit at the wall, especially since we don't know what teams these guys will go to or how they will be utilized. I'm also adding some deep cuts for guys who won't go first round but will be really good. 

    Boom:

    • Joe Alt: Projects as a HOF OL. Reminds me of Joe Thomas. 
    • Cooper DeJean: He had an injury so he missed the combine, but he went crazy at his pro day with a 9.89 RAS, and his film is crazy good. He has instincts and makes plays. If CB doesn't work out, then he'll still be a hit at safety or nickel. 
    • Byron Murphy: He still has a ton of room left before he hits his ceiling, and I expect him to keep progressing like he has at Texas.
    • Graham Barton: Not expecting him to be a HOFer, but he'll be a Pro Bowler somewhere on the OL. It's not clear if he can stick at OT yet, but he could easily move inside and be a great G or C, and he gives the added benefit of being able to plug in at all 5 spots in a pinch so he creates depth in your OL room. 
    • Jonathan Brooks: He's falling because of the injury, but all reports are he's progressing nicely. Some team is getting a first rounder on the second day. 
    • Brock Bowers: He's the best TE in college probably ever, and teams nowadays will know how to utilize him. 10-15 years ago he might not work out nearly as well because they'd stick him inline only and his lack of size and blocking would hurt him. 

    Bust:

    • Jayden Daniels: Maybe he comes in and has a Lamar-like impact because his game finds a way to translate to the NFL, but I don't see it. Lamar has always been elite throwing over the middle and showed more ability to progress through reads. Daniels reads one, then scrambles. He takes a ton of sacks, despite being an elite scrambler, takes hard hits when running, and ignoring the middle of the field won't work in the NFL. On top of that, he didn't break out until Year 5 in college, and it was in a system that doesn't translate to the NFL.  He's going to a terrible spot in either Washington or New England. Those franchises are not going to set him up for success. 
    •  Dallas Turner: Same as others have said
    • Tyler Guyton: Maybe it's just my anti-OU bias, but I've never seen it with him, and I think people are overrating his potential. 

    Deep Cuts: 

    • Cole Bishop: He was great at Utah, showed really good instincts, tackled well, etc. Then he went and put up an elite RAS of 9.86, including running a 4.45 at 6'2, 206.
    • Johnny Wilson: He's 6'6, 230 with a 4.1 shuttle, 37 inch vert and an elite broad jump and his film shows him getting separation and making a ton of contested catches. I have no idea why he's so far down so many draft experts WR rankings. 
    • Kris Jenkins: He was a monster at Michigan who can impact the run and the pass. I think he'll outperform his draft spot. 
    • Malik Washington, WR UVA: He reminds me of Zay Flowers, but will probably go in the 3rd round. He put up 111, 1384, 9 TDs in a terrible UVA offense where he was the only real weapon.
    • Ben Sinnott: He's a poor man's Brock Bowers and will be a great offensive weapon for a team in the 3rd round.  He had a 9.72 RAS, despite being below average for his size, which means all his testing numbers were elite. 
    • Hook 'Em 4
  3. 1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

    The least correlated rankings to actual collegiate performance and NFL draft picks are on the OL, with IOL being worse than OTs. I look at the schools fighting over this guy versus his ranking and then compare it to someone like TJ Shanahan, the polar opposite situation, and kind of roll my eyes. Last I heard, Texas really wants this guy. 

    I've never been a big "trust the coaches" guy when it comes to recruiting, but there's something similar that I've been following for years now when it comes specifically to the LOS. Who is Texas competing with for any of their DT, OT, C or OG targets? If the competition consists of programs and/or staffs putting guys in the NFL and regularly in the playoffs, okay, good, that's a strong sign that a low ranking can be ignored and a high ranking is confirmed. If that isn't the case, your program is heading towards late-stage Mack and could wind up careening towards Tom Herman/Derek Warehime/Herb Hand catastrophe.

    I definitely agree with this and have said something similar before. OL rankings by the sites are more useless than a treadmill or glass of water in Elko’s office.


    Much better to see who is recruiting the guy hard to determine quality of prospect. The services seem to recognize this and usually change rankings after the fact. Except Rivals, who are too lazy to even pay attention to what schools are recruiting prospects. The whole aggy 2023 class is a good example of this. Bisontis was ranked as a top 100 prospect, yet his OVs were to places like Michigan State, Rutgers, and A&M. Those are not top 100 prospect official visit spots. 

    • Haha 1
  4. 52 minutes ago, utee94 said:

    Ugh, terrible.  Looks like some kind of sanitation department uniform or something.

    image.thumb.png.513265f1af5c9c767b1fbb588ac5b31d.png

     

    Yeah, I had seen this picture of Charles earlier, and I was really hoping Ferrari would go for the darker blue. Looks way better, IMO. 
    IMG_4986.thumb.jpeg.a310a2256a0055f3a727f2790617a4c7.jpeg

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. 7 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:
    • Also Dallas Turner is likely a bust as a 1st Rd pick -- he just wasn't that productive at Bama and took a lot of plays off.
    • Tyler Guyton, blOU in 1st Rd is just too early and of course ou sucks!!!

    Boom:

    • Jared Verse -- just deserves success for his effort and high motor
    • Byron Murphy (burnt orange glasses) just works his ass off and strong as hell.
    • Rome Odunze just fights off defenders and makes great catches

    TIL Charlie Strong posts on Surly under the handle LTTxfan, which actually explains a lot.

  6. 1 hour ago, ztejas said:

    Tyrese Hunter ain't walking through that door.

    My original post was mostly a joke. In all seriousness, I am inclined to give Terry a pass for last year if he can put together a cohesive team this year that meets expectations.  Hunter being so terrible at PG and Mitchell being a zero on offense made things extremely difficult, though I do think Terry should’ve recognized those issues last offseason. 

    But if we see another team that doesn’t quite fit and can’t put it together, like last year, then Terry needs to go. 

    • Hook 'Em 5
  7. 1 minute ago, FreeHorn said:

    At safety he has a feather in his cap. Recruited and developed a first rounder at Notre Dame. 

    Ok… The guy’s been a DBs coach for like 18 years. He’s never been promoted or stayed anywhere more than a few years while being related to guys who have flown through the coaching ranks. But sure, recruiting one guy who panned out in 18 years is huge. 

  8. 15 minutes ago, Pancho said:

     

    Look out, boyz! With a roster this loaded, Terry might just hover around the top 25 all season and eke out a tourney win again this year! 

    • Like 2
    • Haha 2
  9. 19 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

    I hope Sark’s sit downs with players aren’t too specific and definitive. Shit happens all the time and telling a third string or second string guy he’s going be that isn’t an ideal approach. I assume most of these portal guys just see the writing on the wall and aren’t being over influenced by bad news in a sit down. There’s honesty and integrity, but then there’s also too much information. I hope it’s not the latter. 

    This is a weird guy to bring this up on. I don’t think Austin Jordan needs Sark’s input to figure out he’s not starting over Jahdae Barron next fall. He’s going into year 3 with no prospect of starting or even playing much. Not that surprising he would want to transfer somewhere for playing time. This is a symptom of having a top 5 roster. UGA and Bama have guys like this transfer out regularly. After 12 years of wandering the desert, We’re finally at the point where we’re no longer taking that guy from Bama or UGA and instead have our own leaving. 

    18 minutes ago, FreeHorn said:

    Look, I would be perfectly fine with firing one or both of the secondary coaches. But we also have to be real with ourselves, we basically started 4 safeties in the secondary last year. 
     

    Watts will be a safety at the next level and that’s where Texas wanted to move him. 
     

    Brooks was thought to be better at safety by most coaches who recruited him. 
     

    Taffe is Taffe. 
     

    we played Thompson and Crawford in big games and situations. 
     

    Williams is a pure safety prospect 

    So you’re saying we’re going into Year 4 of Joseph coaching CBs with a success on the field and massive NIL resources and he’s still struggling to recruit/develop legitimate outside CBs?  Sounds like a guy who needs to go. 

     

    • Hook 'Em 7
    • Like 2
  10. 6 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

    whelp. looks like Penix and Nix are definitely either late firsts or second round picks now that Denver is probably looking at other positions. 

    Huh? Denver gave up next to nothing for Wilson. He’s not going to change their plans at QB. 

    • Like 1
  11. 4 hours ago, VinyVango said:

    next year versus UCONN in Austin should provide a good coaching barometer/comparison since both Hurley and Terry will be retooling most of their rosters. 

    I think we all know how that will measure out. 
     


     

    IMG_4982.thumb.jpeg.03a176b5280b8c718b2782150cda61d8.jpeg

    • Haha 2
  12. 5 hours ago, NoName said:

    got to get to that second contract as early as possible.

     

    JFC, man. This does not apply to QBs at all. Good QBs regularly play into the late thirties these days, so rushing to the second contract doesn’t matter. 
     

    If anything, it’s the opposite for QBs. They get rushed into playing in the NFL, so having an extra year of playing and developing in college helps them be ready to succeed and maximize their earnings. 

    • Hook 'Em 5
  13. 5 hours ago, The Dog said:

    I wouldn't lump Nix in with those guys based on their ratings. Their "tiers" seem to be:

    Caleb Williams

    Daniels/Maye/Penix

    McCarthy/Nix

    Everyone else.

    Unless these are your personal rankings, swap Pinex and McCarthy. McCarthy is largely expected to go top 10. Penix is end of 1st/early 2nd. 

    2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

    And yet people are going fucking nuts about Malik Nabors being a top 10 pick. The two LSU WRs in this draft class might be as overrated as anyone. They averaged weak separation, played in a down SEC, and they had a wildman at QB dropping dimes and running around until he could throw them open. Nabors being ranked on par with Odunze and Harrison Jr is as laughable as someone not wanting to take a fucking Superman at TE because other, unrelated guys in the past didn't pan out in the same draft area.

    And really, the "low historical hit rate in the top ten for the position" is such a weird premise in the first place. Hockenson and Pitts have had shit heaped onto them from different places but Hockenson is putting together an excellent career even if he isn't trending towards the HoF. Pitts got Johnsoned as bad as anyone on the Atlanta roster. His first season, before the idiot decided to fuck with him as some sort of decoy half the time, was terrific outside of the lack of TDs. Anything further back than 2018 is not a data point. Things change. 

    Even if you zoom out to the whole first round, the hit rate for TE in the first round isn’t good relative to other positions. TE is also the position most closely correlated with an elite RAS score, like top 10 percentile and up. Bowers is small for the position, so he would’ve had to test off the charts to get near that number, and there’s probably a reason why he never tested for teams, even at his pro day. 
     

    So I can see why teams in the top 10 have some pause. Having said all that, I would still take him top 10 and it may happen. I think he’ll go somewhere between 7 and 13. 

    • Like 1
  14. 31 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

    Well, shit. Our questionable secondary did not need to lose a starter. 

    I mean, he was a huge part of why our secondary is questionable. He’s blown more coverages than anyone since he got here and doesn’t appear to have the mental ability/eyes to play Quarters. He was routinely blowing coverages on Quarters-beaters that require a DB to stay disciplined in their reads.
     

    He also wasn’t a guaranteed starter next year, so it hurts depth, but it’s not the end of the world, especially when you take into account opportunity cost of NIL money and a possible transfer addition between now and the Fall. 

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