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Posts posted by closetojumping
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15 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:
These days everybody would talk about it for a day or so and then move on to the next thing. We would be reminded every once in a while when a new twist happened in the legal case.
Also this thing happened after OJ had been retired for years.
Sometimes you show up on this site and it's almost like you're determined to hammer a shitty take into the center of a thread no matter how fucking dumb it is.
OJ Simpson was a national celebrity and beloved to boot. He hadn't disappeared into the limelight. He was a major endorser of products, a sideline reporter, an actor, and never far from the tv screen in everyone's homes. It is a fucking ridiculous premise, and almost certainly purposefully disingenuous on your part, to attempt to imply that he was a largely irrelevant figure.
Beyond that, the nature of the celebrity for someone like that in the context of today, isn't hard to find. If Charles Barkley or Michael Strahan damned near lopped off the heads of their ex-wife and her presumed lover and then acted shocked and innocent while trying to flee the country as the authorities closed in, the whole country would be mesmerized. That would include the build-up to the trial and so forth.
Get a fucking grip with pushing the absurd notion of something otherwise.
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Just looking at numbers, over the last 5 drafts, here are some stats for WRs:
-Alabama and Ohio State lead the way with 6 selections each. Not sure how Bama's numbers change in the near term, but I wouldn't expect OSU to be knocked off any time soon.
-Florida, LSU, and Tennessee are right behind them with 5 each. LSU's numbers won't be hurt by this draft, I know UF has Pearsall, and I am not sure about anyone at Tenn. In watching Tennessee in 2023, they dropped more balls than Nicole Aniston.
-How many did ATM have? Zero. A Jimbo staple of development with WRs is to not develop them at all. With Anias Smith, I guess that might change? Not sure if he's on draft boards or not.
-Texas had 2, both in 2020 (Duvernay, Johnson) but will add 2 or 3 more to the running count this cycle and should replenish the following year as well and be a contender at the top.
-Washington with zero picks over the last 5 years. Obviously that is also about to change.
-Here's the one that kind of surprised me: Miami has put one guy in the NFL via draft at WR since 2019, KJ Osborn in 2020. Not sure if this draft changes that number for them.
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3 hours ago, Bevo&Pevo said:
3 game series with the Cougars in the HTX this weekend. Anyone going? We'll probably go Sunday afternoon.
Going on Sunday with a few of my kids. It's pathetic that I'm worried about seeing a loss to frigging UH. Also, on a personal level, I really despise one of Todd Whitting's asshole kids so losing to these fuckers will really suck.
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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:
WRONG INDIANA STATE PLAYER RODNEY
They're going after both guys. Gerry has an overall update today on the premium end:
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Let's look at WR for this class, as it pertains to reasonable targets for Texas.
Elite
Lockett - Elite components: 6'7" wing span, extra large hands, great high pointer. Situation: Texas leads.
Moore - Elite components: Track star speed. Most explosive WR out of his stance in this cycle nationally. Situation: A future state glimpse of recruitments between Texas and LSU. Both have a lot to sell. Both are putting WRs in the NFL this cycle in high rounds. The guy will have ex-teammates on both teams. NIL is a factor. LSU's NIL, irrespective of hagiographic shit being pumped out in a documentary, is limited. They simply cannot throw major NIL dollars at every spot. Do they say "fuck it" and sacrifice other targets at other positions in order to win here? Maybe. There are a lot of people who think this one flips. I could see either outcome right now.
Ffrench - Elite components: Route running. Optionality, can play all WR positions well. Excellent yet undercoached in typical state of Florida recruiting ways, leaving significant developmental upside. Situation: There are plenty of good reasons for this guy to go to any of the schools he's considering. OSU's record with WRs and the NFL is strong. FSU is about to put guys in the league this cycle too. Tennessee, sure. Miami is regionally relevant. NIL is likely a big deal here. No one between OSU, Tenn, or Texas can claim a legit advantage here in that regard.
High Quality Talent W/out an Elite Skill or Trait
Johnson - You could argue that this guy possesses elite speed with sub 11.00 100 times while also playing multiple sports. He's not ranked as an elite player because 1) he plays for a 3a school and most of his footage is just him catching the ball wide open and running away from everyone and 2) he has a very thin frame, akin to that of Worthy. Texas leads.
Harris - Average measurables for a WR. Plays for an elite football program that is a CFB prospect factory. Ceiling may be limited. Apparently has excellent hands and plays the position really well. Does not possess elite speed. Seems kind of obvious that Texas leads.
McCutcheon - Insane production numbers. Probably limited only to slot in college and allegedly is leaning towards OOS. Texas is hosting him for an OV, at least as of this time, but they have not pushed as a priority.
Marsh - Good size, lacks elite speed, apparently has excellent hands. He has a helicopter parent who is a legitimate distraction. The player has alleged attitude issues, but given his personal life without a dad and a mom likely heading to prison, maybe that's a nurture/environment thing. Apparently, ATM isn't really an interest for him. He's pushed for interest from Texas. OU likes him.
Choice - This dude has great height and uses it well. I don't know about his track times but he doesn't look like a blazer. Apparently, he's a heavy OU lean but has a UT visit scheduled.
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I might be missing something, but that's the 8 targets I feel like we hear about the most.
Texas will take between 3-4, it seems. How does that mix shake out?
Irrespective of how the services are ranking him, Johnson looks like a staff priority. I think he is the most likely player to get the "we want you, but we need to know what you're going to do now before we are forced to make other choices if you're not on board" treatment here in the next few weeks/months. So I think they land him.
Lockett is a must get. He has visited Texas far more than any other school and they are doing everything they can to land him. I think they land him during his visit or shortly thereafter. Competition is more or less "the field" which is also good.
That leaves 1-2 other spots. I doubt they land both Moore and Ffrench. I think it is likelier that they don't land either of them. Nonetheless, let's assume Texas pushes a ton of chips in on Moore and the LSU offense this seasons is a shadow of its former self.
So who is your number 4? If it is Harris, great, that keeps SoCal's attention on the program and Sarkisian saves his biases.
I'd rather punt on #4 unless Ffrench pulls the trigger. I like McCutcheon but clearly that isn't the staff's opinion or they're just not getting much back from him. The portal will have a ton of options and there is no reason to believe that Texas, while putting more WRs into the pros and Arch Manning waiting in the wing, with Sarkisian's offense, won't be a premier landing spot for the best WRs in the portal, yet again.
What's everyone else's mix?
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28 minutes ago, texifornia said:
Bleh.
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Just now, NoName said:he pointed out how this one 81 yard run in the OU game run showed him that Foreman had some crazy burst and how he was outrunning little dudes.
on the run he pointed out, Foreman was caught from behind by 2 DBs and a 3rd would have tackled him if the first 2 didn't.
and yes, i pointed out that outside of that on erun, Foreman wasn't great that game. he had 36 yards on 8 carries and had 0 touches in the 4th quarter
the parallel he is pointing out is dumb. using any single run as a "this guy is awesome" example is dumb. comparing two guys together because of one run is dumb. that guy has a long history of posting dumb shit on this site. i
We've reached the point in this thread where it could be time for you to stop intervening with tedious shit from 9 years ago and analyzing single runs from TBs down to the gnat's ass as a quasi-scientific means of determining whether said TB can be viewed as having value in the future state. Pop open a coke and have a smile and then find something new to dissect and salve your Asperger's mind.
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34 minutes ago, Da Fino said:
Aaron Bryant?
That would hurt.
32 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:Akana seems most easy to point at with that edge position.
More than someone like Finkley who is being passed over? I'm wondering if Finkley might be eligible to be a GT because I feel like his family was all over the academics and he came in with courses finished already. Might be misremembering that though. The only name floated both in December and now that makes a lot of sense to me is Tapp. He could apparently be starting somewhere else by observer estimates.
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31 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:
But cancer murderers are ok.
RIP Nordberg. Party at the Goldmans.FYI, our very own Nordberg lives on here on Surly under the handle @Red Five.
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Fuck that guy. The world is a better place with his exit. Just a sorry piece of shit who deserved worse than he got.
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Burton posted thoughts today around the Burrell exit that I thought made some sense. Link below. In the comments section, @Red Five had an interesting counterpoint to some pollyanna nonsense as well.
https://ontexasfootball.com/forums/topic/1252-thoughts-on-smaje-burrell/#comment-14740
Anyway, the attrition has begun. We're discussing it plenty in the transfer thread on the recruiting board, but here are some thoughts in this thread too.
Obviously, there aren't a bunch of guys on the roster that the program "wants" to lose but there are between 7-10 spots that need to be vacated.
1) Burrell was gone before he drunkenly rearended Sweat on Sunday morning. Until that incident, the staff wanted to keep him, but Baylor and other Big 12 schools had already told his family that he'd be a day 1 starter for them and he's riding 3rd string at Texas.
2) They're overloaded at DB. A name there is Jordan, although nothing in concrete. Again, that guy could be starting somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised by 2+ exits from DB. Holmes maybe? He's looked good this spring and playing with urgency. He's not a bum. I don't see how pain is avoided at DB.
3) OL is simply loaded and they're about to put another top 1-2 OL class in the country together. I've heard that Stroh isn't going anywhere and they like him a lot. Not a lot of rumblings about anyone on the two deep. There have long been whispers about Connor Robertson maybe heading elsewhere. My problem with that story is that this site is loaded with Westlake honks who have said something at some point. Merril's family have deep ties and support to UT and UT athletics, allegedly, and that dude is valued. Kirkland checks a lot boxes for why someone would transfer - away from home, buried on the depth chart, lingering recovery work from a serious injury, was in the doghouse almost immediately after arriving to campus.
4) No one is saying much, but I view Mitchell as the single most likely candidate to transfer in this cycle. He checks every box for why a guy would leave.
5) There are too many TEs on the roster.
6) I'll be surprised if Savion Red is on the roster come August.
7) No rumblings about anyone at WR.
8 ) There are too many DEs/Edge guys on the roster.
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28 minutes ago, RollingPresidential said:
Idk if it was the week before, but it's the only time I can ever remember the $9.95ers saying "actually practice this week sucked" and then we won
One of my friends was at practice that week. He called me and said "I know you won't believe this, but this shit is so bad that I think a blowout this weekend may get this guy fired." I argued there was no way they would do that and he said "as bad as this team looks, this could make the Mack blowouts look close." And then we won. I was happy for a few days about Texas football for a bit. Felt nice at the time.
1 minute ago, speed817 said:Someone thinks that dude is the love child of Bryant Gumble and Janet Reno, apparently. Grim.
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17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:
That's a fair point. What do we want to move onto as a metaphor, maybe it's just a fucking lepar colony? Leprosy is making a comeback in Florida, I hear.
I like the football board. There's a wider span of humans there and a lot more chaos. This board has almost become too curated.
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46 minutes ago, landman said:
Being happy with a 2 seed at a regional anywhere is ludicrous, let alone sheephumpingville. And stupid.
This is TEXAS. The bastion of college baseball. Hosting should be our birth right dammit.
You’ve got an amazing sense of the posting world on Surly and a stunning grasp of the literal. Good work.
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Burrell is gone. Okay.
Names more likely than others, apparently:
Red, Cojoe, Robertson, Kirkland, Holmes, Davis (don’t tell @immamac), and Jordan.
No guarantees and there could well be others, but none of those above should shock anyone.
Merril is a longer term contributor to the AD and program. I assume he’s there until he’s a GA or something.
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1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:
Definitely some pain for Burrell as he enters the portal.
Burrell was the “done deal” that Gerry was referencing this weekend that had people asking around thinking it was an incoming name.
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1 hour ago, NoName said:
i agree with the tiny sample size issue totally and completely. the point of that is that the data we do have and do have access to does not back up the "Guy A is more explosive than Guy B" eye test.
all we do know is that at every opportunity for their careers at Texas the coaching staff, which has access to way more data and way more information than we do, has said chosen to give more snaps to Baxter over Blue.
here's is to hoping Texas has some wildass RB room next year and they both run for thousand yards.
i agree that a lot of the value of those terms is better in other sports vs football in general. there is no CFB version of wRC+ out there to compare how good True Freshman Bijan was vs true freshman Cedric Benson or even an easier way to compare someone like Blue to someone like Baxter.
i agree that the sample size is too small in CFB
i agree that there are huge swings in variability to make any one of them the single best stat or single best metric.
also i think there is absolutely value in looking some of the advanced stats as a piece of the puzzle and a piece of how good a player/team is. i think they are more valuable at the team level than the player level (much larger sample size at that point) but there is no be all end all stat
i think some of the RB stats we had access to are useful (highlight yards vs line yards for example) - but again that doesn't show everything and isn't the end all be all.
of all the (public systems) out there, prediction tracker tracks like 50 different (public) systems that all make game predictions and last year 2 total systems beat the line straight up and the best one was only 0.5% better than the line SU. ATS, the line was better by almost 5%. none of em are perfect, none of them are the end all-be all.
that said, the very basic stats around Blue vs Baxter absolutely do not back up the "Blue is incredibly explosive and way more explosive than Baxter."
the comparison to Herman hurts
i like stats, i think they add color to the discussion and add value to the discussion. you have to balance between the gut/eye test and the stats side of things. anyone who uses stats alone is as bad as someone who uses the eye test alone.
I wasn't responding regarding you. Like I said, advanced stats have their place in CFB, but I don't think that place is in player to player comparisons, since that's doable without the statistical noise and the sides will either find common ground or what fans do and keep arguing. Same for the gameday stuff. Sometimes, the coach shouldn't give a shit about national statistics for FG probability at a certain point in the game dimming the positive eventual outcome and just realize that you're fucking playing OU, you have their offense on the ropes, kick the FG and make them comeback by 3 scores with 8 minutes on the clock.
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Something to think about is that some of the big money folks communicate with Ketchum on recruiting and transfers, and they speak in certainties.
There's a pattern to follow that when rumors pop up like the Alexander thing and then Ketchum talks about it and then the tables turn. That's not karmic. Ketchum has to appear in the know because the notion of being an insider is that blubbering manatee's currency.
One of the idiotic things that that tub of goo will do is convey information to others in the business in order to look like he's really standing out. So while posting something on twitter where you do the "nanny nanny boo boo" thing may not actually be a big deal, telling one of the moderators of the USC Rivals site or one of the national Rivals mods a negotiated number might be the kind of bragging that accidentally gives USC the information they need to put the whole thing to bed.
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I continue to be of the opinion that "big data" and "data science" as it pertains to college football can be just mental masturbation and ways for consultants and tech firms to suckle off the teat of the CFB behemoth. I say that as someone who completely understands the value of those terms and the work around them for baseball, golf, hockey, basketball, etc. In CFB the sample sizes are too small and the variables in rosters, conditions, injuries (something significantly more impactful on outcomes in game than other sports and not incorporated into any of the data outputs/predictions), etc. have significant beta on them that can only be overcome with sample sizes that aren't going to be there.
I'm speaking mostly about individual player analysis/comparisons with advanced stats and the notion of "this is what the book said" as an excuse for determining outcomes in games. I get the uses for gambling and long term evaluation of playcallers and their habits.
Idiots who just mindlessly work off of a "book" or a "binder", like Herman, are as bad as the guys who used to only, it seemed, play for field goals.
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10 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:
Should have known this was how it ended when this was tweeted yesterday
Two gigantic, lazy fatasses lacking ethics and offering up bullshit opinions. Good lord.
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4 hours ago, Fud said:
Those are just his grades, not where he predicts where players will go
I think Worthy could sneak into the late first, and I think Sanders and Sweat could still go in the 2nd
You follow the draft way more than I do, so I'll trust your takes here. That said, I'd assumed both Sanders and Sweat would be punished by 1-2 rounds each for their respective issues this spring. Not that I was thinking that would make sense, but thinking it nonetheless.
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1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:
CTJ said he wouldn't be surprised or some other CTJ verbiage about Mitchell hitting the portal.
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:Yeah, but that motherfucker is talented and a rare size. I get it, but you're talking about fat cutting at a position where we couldn't really afford to cut any fat, hence the portal acquisitions. It would be a shame.
First, to be clear, I have not heard anything regarding any specific names transferring, and I haven't asked. I think those will be poorly kept secrets that all, or mostly, get out to folks by this weekend.
That considered, there is one player on the team who checks every single common transfer attribute box:
a) far away from home, ie., homesick
b) helicopter parent who is always calling/emailing/texting coaches and/or involved at practices
c) in the doghouse for one reason or another with staff
d) not in the two deep on the depth chart
e) dealing with chronic injury or conditioning issues
f) currently possessing higher perception value than performance value (someone would throw more money at the player than Texas would care to match)
Now, Sarkisian praising Mitchell at his PC is noteworthy. However, that could also be staving off the transfer risk. Regardless, if Texas is bringing in more help to put in front of Mitchell at DT/NT, the warning lights should be flashing violently.
1 hour ago, Vertigo said:It would seem that Swansen is the easy candidate for any turnover in that room unless Mitchell just can't put it together. I hope he does, we really need him to develop.
Regarding both of these guys, there is no indication that the staff wants to lose either guy. There is likely a sense of inevitability on it, however.
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As I think about the names that could be coming up, who are the guys that haven't been mentioned while newer/younger players at their position have been spoken of well by the staff? Maybe that's not revealing anything, we'll see, but it's led me to be of the opinion that Austin Jordan could be a transfer candidate. Same for Swanson, Holmes, Roberson, Tapp, Burrell, Robertson, Kirkland, Cojoe, Stroh, Merril, Red, Randle, Shannon, and Niblett.
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There are multiple posters on OTF speculating that maybe there are other reasons besides NIL for why Alexander is in the portal. I imagine it’s worse on the other boards. I want to laugh at their idiocy and then cry for the planet’s future.
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2024 Transfer Thread - The Pedantic Circlejerk
in 🤫$9.95🤫
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No, Mitchell. But he's a close second. Kirkland doesn't have a helicopter parent calling his position coach all of the time.