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closetojumping

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by closetojumping

  1. 15 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    These days everybody would talk about it for a day or so and then move on to the next thing. We would be reminded every once in a while when a new twist happened in the legal case.

    Also this thing happened after OJ had been retired for years. 

    Sometimes you show up on this site and it's almost like you're determined to hammer a shitty take into the center of a thread no matter how fucking dumb it is. 

    OJ Simpson was a national celebrity and beloved to boot. He hadn't disappeared into the limelight. He was a major endorser of products, a sideline reporter, an actor, and never far from the tv screen in everyone's homes. It is a fucking ridiculous premise, and almost certainly purposefully disingenuous on your part, to attempt to imply that he was a largely irrelevant figure. 

    Beyond that, the nature of the celebrity for someone like that in the context of today, isn't hard to find. If Charles Barkley or Michael Strahan damned near lopped off the heads of their ex-wife and her presumed lover and then acted shocked and innocent while trying to flee the country as the authorities closed in, the whole country would be mesmerized. That would include the build-up to the trial and so forth. 

    Get a fucking grip with pushing the absurd notion of something otherwise.

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  2. Just looking at numbers, over the last 5 drafts, here are some stats for WRs:

    -Alabama and Ohio State lead the way with 6 selections each. Not sure how Bama's numbers change in the near term, but I wouldn't expect OSU to be knocked off any time soon.

    -Florida, LSU, and Tennessee are right behind them with 5 each. LSU's numbers won't be hurt by this draft, I know UF has Pearsall, and I am not sure about anyone at Tenn. In watching Tennessee in 2023, they dropped more balls than Nicole Aniston. 

    -How many did ATM have? Zero. A Jimbo staple of development with WRs is to not develop them at all. With Anias Smith, I guess that might change? Not sure if he's on draft boards or not.

    -Texas had 2, both in 2020 (Duvernay, Johnson) but will add 2 or 3 more to the running count this cycle and should replenish the following year as well and be a contender at the top.

    -Washington with zero picks over the last 5 years. Obviously that is also about to change. 

    -Here's the one that kind of surprised me: Miami has put one guy in the NFL via draft at WR since 2019, KJ Osborn in 2020. Not sure if this draft changes that number for them. 

  3. 3 hours ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

    3 game series with the Cougars in the HTX this weekend.  Anyone going?  We'll probably go Sunday afternoon.

    Going on Sunday with a few of my kids. It's pathetic that I'm worried about seeing a loss to frigging UH. Also, on a personal level, I really despise one of Todd Whitting's asshole kids so losing to these fuckers will really suck.

  4. 34 minutes ago, Da Fino said:

    Aaron Bryant?

    That would hurt. 

    32 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    Akana seems most easy to point at with that edge position. 

    More than someone like Finkley who is being passed over? I'm wondering if Finkley might be eligible to be a GT because I feel like his family was all over the academics and he came in with courses finished already. Might be misremembering that though. The only name floated both in December and now that makes a lot of sense to me is Tapp. He could apparently be starting somewhere else by observer estimates.

  5. Burton posted thoughts today around the Burrell exit that I thought made some sense. Link below. In the comments section, @Red Five had an interesting counterpoint to some pollyanna nonsense as well.

    https://ontexasfootball.com/forums/topic/1252-thoughts-on-smaje-burrell/#comment-14740

    Anyway, the attrition has begun. We're discussing it plenty in the transfer thread on the recruiting board, but here are some thoughts in this thread too.

    Obviously, there aren't a bunch of guys on the roster that the program "wants" to lose but there are between 7-10 spots that need to be vacated.

    1) Burrell was gone before he drunkenly rearended Sweat on Sunday morning. Until that incident, the staff wanted to keep him, but Baylor and other Big 12 schools had already told his family that he'd be a day 1 starter for them and he's riding 3rd string at Texas.

    2) They're overloaded at DB. A name there is Jordan, although nothing in concrete. Again, that guy could be starting somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised by 2+ exits from DB. Holmes maybe? He's looked good this spring and playing with urgency. He's not a bum. I don't see how pain is avoided at DB. 

    3) OL is simply loaded and they're about to put another top 1-2 OL class in the country together. I've heard that Stroh isn't going anywhere and they like him a lot. Not a lot of rumblings about anyone on the two deep. There have long been whispers about Connor Robertson maybe heading elsewhere. My problem with that story is that this site is loaded with Westlake honks who have said something at some point. Merril's family have deep ties and support to UT and UT athletics, allegedly, and that dude is valued. Kirkland checks a lot boxes for why someone would transfer - away from home, buried on the depth chart, lingering recovery work from a serious injury, was in the doghouse almost immediately after arriving to campus. 

    4) No one is saying much, but I view Mitchell as the single most likely candidate to transfer in this cycle. He checks every box for why a guy would leave.

    5) There are too many TEs on the roster.

    6) I'll be surprised if Savion Red is on the roster come August.

    7) No rumblings about anyone at WR.

    8 ) There are too many DEs/Edge guys on the roster. 

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  6. 28 minutes ago, RollingPresidential said:

    Idk if it was the week before, but it's the only time I can ever remember the $9.95ers saying "actually practice this week sucked" and then we won

    One of my friends was at practice that week. He called me and said "I know you won't believe this, but this shit is so bad that I think a blowout this weekend may get this guy fired." I argued there was no way they would do that and he said "as bad as this team looks, this could make the Mack blowouts look close." And then we won. I was happy for a few days about Texas football for a bit. Felt nice at the time.

    1 minute ago, speed817 said:

     

    Someone thinks that dude is the love child of Bryant Gumble and Janet Reno, apparently. Grim.

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  7. 17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    That's a fair point. What do we want to move onto as a metaphor, maybe it's just a fucking lepar colony? Leprosy is making a comeback in Florida, I hear. 

    I like the football board. There's a wider span of humans there and a lot more chaos. This board has almost become too curated. 

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  8. Burrell is gone. Okay. 

    Names more likely than others, apparently:

    Red, Cojoe, Robertson, Kirkland, Holmes,  Davis (don’t tell @immamac), and Jordan. 

    No guarantees and there could well be others, but none of those above should shock anyone. 

    Merril is a longer term contributor to the AD and program. I assume he’s there until he’s a GA or something. 

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  9. 1 hour ago, NoName said:

    i agree with the tiny sample size issue totally and completely. the point of that is that the data we do have and do have access to does not back up the "Guy A is more explosive than Guy B" eye test. 

    all we do know is that at every opportunity for their careers at Texas the coaching staff, which has access to way more data and way more information than we do, has said chosen to give more snaps to Baxter over Blue.

    here's is to hoping Texas has some wildass RB room next year and they both run for thousand yards.

    i agree that a lot of the value of those terms is better in other sports vs football in general. there is no CFB version of wRC+ out there to compare how good True Freshman Bijan was vs true freshman Cedric Benson or even an easier way to compare someone like Blue to someone like Baxter.

    i agree that the sample size is too small in CFB

    i agree that there are huge swings in variability to make any one of them the single best stat or single best metric.

    also i think there is absolutely value in looking some of the advanced stats as a piece of the puzzle and a piece of how good a player/team is. i think they are more valuable at the team level than the player level (much larger sample size at that point) but there is no be all end all stat

    i think some of the RB stats we had access to are useful (highlight yards vs line yards for example) - but again that doesn't show everything and isn't the end all be all.

    of all the (public systems) out there, prediction tracker tracks like 50 different (public) systems that all make game predictions and last year 2 total systems beat the line straight up and the best one was only 0.5% better than the line SU. ATS, the line was better by almost 5%. none of em are perfect, none of them are the end all-be all. 

    that said, the very basic stats around Blue vs Baxter absolutely do not back up the "Blue is incredibly explosive and way more explosive than Baxter."

    the comparison to Herman hurts

    8bffe9ad-cd88-46d7-855d-6e514bc1e962_tex

    i like stats, i think they add color to the discussion and add value to the discussion. you have to balance between the gut/eye test and the stats side of things. anyone who uses stats alone is as bad as someone who uses the eye test alone.

     

    I wasn't responding regarding you. Like I said, advanced stats have their place in CFB, but I don't think that place is in player to player comparisons, since that's doable without the statistical noise and the sides will either find common ground or what fans do and keep arguing. Same for the gameday stuff. Sometimes, the coach shouldn't give a shit about national statistics for FG probability at a certain point in the game dimming the positive eventual outcome and just realize that you're fucking playing OU, you have their offense on the ropes, kick the FG and make them comeback by 3 scores with 8 minutes on the clock. 

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  10. I continue to be of the opinion that "big data" and "data science" as it pertains to college football can be just mental masturbation and ways for consultants and tech firms to suckle off the teat of the CFB behemoth. I say that as someone who completely understands the value of those terms and the work around them for baseball, golf, hockey, basketball, etc. In CFB the sample sizes are too small and the variables in rosters, conditions, injuries (something significantly more impactful on outcomes in game than other sports and not incorporated into any of the data outputs/predictions), etc. have significant beta on them that can only be overcome with sample sizes that aren't going to be there.

    I'm speaking mostly about individual player analysis/comparisons with advanced stats and the notion of "this is what the book said" as an excuse for determining outcomes in games. I get the uses for gambling and long term evaluation of playcallers and their habits. 

    Idiots who just mindlessly work off of a "book" or a "binder", like Herman, are as bad as the guys who used to only, it seemed, play for field goals.

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  11. 4 hours ago, Fud said:

    Those are just his grades, not where he predicts where players will go

    I think Worthy could sneak into the late first, and I think Sanders and Sweat could still go in the 2nd 

    You follow the draft way more than I do, so I'll trust your takes here. That said, I'd assumed both Sanders and Sweat would be punished by 1-2 rounds each for their respective issues this spring. Not that I was thinking that would make sense, but thinking it nonetheless.

  12. 1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    CTJ said he wouldn't be surprised or some other CTJ verbiage about Mitchell hitting the portal.

     

    1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Yeah, but that motherfucker is talented and a rare size. I get it, but you're talking about fat cutting at a position where we couldn't really afford to cut any fat, hence the portal acquisitions. It would be a shame. 

    First, to be clear, I have not heard anything regarding any specific names transferring, and I haven't asked. I think those will be poorly kept secrets that all, or mostly, get out to folks by this weekend.

    That considered, there is one player on the team who checks every single common transfer attribute box:

    a) far away from home, ie., homesick

    b) helicopter parent who is always calling/emailing/texting coaches and/or involved at practices

    c) in the doghouse for one reason or another with staff

    d) not in the two deep on the depth chart

    e) dealing with chronic injury or conditioning issues

    f) currently possessing higher perception value than performance value (someone would throw more money at the player than Texas would care to match)

    Now, Sarkisian praising Mitchell at his PC is noteworthy. However, that could also be staving off the transfer risk. Regardless, if Texas is bringing in more help to put in front of Mitchell at DT/NT, the warning lights should be flashing violently.

    1 hour ago, Vertigo said:

    It would seem that Swansen is the easy candidate for any turnover in that room unless Mitchell just can't put it together. I hope he does, we really need him to develop.  

    Regarding both of these guys, there is no indication that the staff wants to lose either guy. There is likely a sense of inevitability on it, however. 

    ----

    As I think about the names that could be coming up, who are the guys that haven't been mentioned while newer/younger players at their position have been spoken of well by the staff? Maybe that's not revealing anything, we'll see, but it's led me to be of the opinion that Austin Jordan could be a transfer candidate. Same for Swanson, Holmes, Roberson, Tapp, Burrell, Robertson, Kirkland, Cojoe, Stroh, Merril, Red, Randle, Shannon, and Niblett. 

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