A good update:
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-3-2025/
Key Takeaways
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory and negotiating tactics assume that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition.
Kremlin officials continued to refuse to publicly discuss the outcomes of the December 2 US-Russia meeting, as ISW previously forecasted.
The Kremlin is reigniting narratives that Odesa City is a Russian city.
Russian forces achieved the tactical breakthrough northeast and east of Hulyaipole in mid-November 2025, likely in part by concentrating and committing a force grouping comparable in size to the one operating in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction.
The 5th CAA’s tactical breakthrough north and northeast of Hulyaipole could enable Russian forces to achieve operational successes in both the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv directions. Russia’s ability to exploit such a breakthrough, however, largely depends on Ukrainian resistance and denial of Russian river crossings.
High ranking Kremlin officials continue to set conditions to justify potential future Russian aggression against Moldova and the Baltics.
The Kremlin is attempting to mobilize Russian and Belarusian civil societies, including Belarusian organizations and the Russian Orthodox Church, to garner support for the war in Ukraine and influence campaigns globally.
Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid and support to Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk.