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Hugo Stiglitz

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Everything posted by Hugo Stiglitz

  1. If I survive all this shit the ledge can get fucked.
  2. That talk must be in the DT thread.
  3. He’s not going to get less crazy either.
  4. We’re going to look back at this moment in shame and I absolutely hate it. This is a must read thread:
  5. Ukraine isn’t Afghanistan for sure, it’s strategically more valuable. I don’t see either side tolerating much compromise and even if there is some kind of settlement, Putin will regroup and attack again. I don’t see a 20 year conflict for the reasons you listed but as long a Putin is dictator, this land is going to be a disputed turf war.
  6. No chance of this unless Russia fully retreats. Kremlin might capture/hold some cities but there will be years of insurgency if they commit to occupation. This thing could last decades.
  7. I have seen no evidence of Qanon originating from Russia but the way it hit the ground running in all the Kremlin friendly places leads me to believe it was much more than an organic movement started by some schmodick in his basement. The Kremlin trolls no doubt exploited it. Russia was also pushing anti-vax narratives worldwide years before covid. Cited as contributing to a measles outbreak in Europe in 2018 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45294192.amp
  8. ^I hope you’re right More details here: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/tv-producer-russian-oligarch-charged-violating-crimea-related-sanctions
  9. Can you explain how it’s stupid? Is this 2018 comprehensive report just fake news? https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/FinalRR.pdf
  10. It’s not only anti-western it’s pro-fascist meaning his aim is to subvert democracy. He’s done it in Belarus without firing a shot. He’s been working on most of Europe too and he’s done serious damage to our political system in the United States. Russians do not see warfare as limited to guns and soldiers on a battlefield. It’s probably why we have to come up with terms like hybrid warfare, active measures, and cyber warfare. To the Russians it’s all just warfare. He couldn’t subvert Ukraine like Belarus which is why he’s launching this land invasion. He is using NATO expansion and “Western influence” as an excuse to subjugate the Ukrainian people which was always his goal.
  11. We just see the world differently. Putin’s war is on the western international democratic order and he’s been assaulting it for the last 10+ years. This is just his largest salvo on the physical battlefield. I’m not advocating we put troops on the ground or openly attack Russia (for obvious reasons). But we could sell them some jets for $1 and/or do our other clandestine activities to bog them down in Ukraine. Perhaps we are. Whatever it takes to contain the fight to Ukraine without provoking a nuclear Holocaust or letting Putin annex that territory.
  12. Keep kicking that can down the road. WW3 is here and will likely be won or lost in Ukraine. I know intervention is wildly unpopular but perhaps the best time to do something is actually now. Doing whatever it takes to keep Russia from taking Ukraine and moving towards the next line to cross is the play IMO.
  13. I have said before on here that we are living in a time that parallels the pre-WW1 era. Massive unchecked wealth inequality (globally), uncontrollable monopolies, technological advancements outpacing any kind of responsible regulation, elderly backward thinking aloof leaders not burdened with a sense of duty to their populations, AstroTurfed extremism to keep the system broken. So, a 1917 Revolution in Russia actually doesn’t seem that far fetched given the current situation.
  14. Perhaps widen your scope a few hundred years.
  15. While this is fantasy talk, I believe this is the beginning of the end for Putin. The unknowns are the timetable, body count, and what comes after Putin in Russia. If Russians decide to try some radical experiment again like communism, anarcho syndicalism, or democratic socialism should the West try to stop them? Some hard questions for a post-Putin world and perhaps avoiding the mistakes of the recent past would be best.
  16. Biden has done several things in this crisis that have been great. Spoiling the surprise invasion way in advance, preempting Russia’s false pretext. Undercutting the information war. I’m livid we’re at this point though. Putin is to blame. However “the West” provided so many enablers over the last 15 years for him to get here and that isn’t Biden’s fault, but they too should be held accountable. I’m done here. Slava Ukraini!
  17. First, my mistake, my understanding of the agreement was in error. Second, Russia violated the agreement when they invaded Ukraine. Who is supposed to enforce that? Seems like these pieces of paper are worthless.
  18. I already told you, credible threat of force is the first thing. Just starting to talk about entertaining a no fly zone can have an effect on the ground. Biden needs to stop conceding ground rhetorically, it’s an unforced error. That’s been his mistake. Start acting like the superpower we are, just a little. It sucks this situation is on Biden’s plate and there is a laundry lists of events and mistakes on our part that led up to this before Biden but if Russia captures Ukraine he will absolutely get the blame. I don’t want that to happen nor do I want to see a genocide. I see the Biden Administration making the same mistakes as the Obama Administration when it comes to Putin and it sucks. They will work their ass to justify not doing the right thing and everyone will just go along with it because there was nothing we could do. I call bullshit on that. Additionally, my opinion doesn’t mean shit.
  19. According to the 1994 Budapest accords we are obligated to defend Ukraine’s independence. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances But as Putin has already demonstrated, agreements don’t mean shit.
  20. Sorry you’re getting raped, I would do something but there are risks involved, wouldn’t want to start WW3. Our inability to stand up to this guy is why he keeps pushing the envelope. He’s already started WW3 and will continue until stopped. He’s not going to nuke us over a no-fly zone, that’s ridiculous, we’re not going to invade Russia either. Our foreign policy has always been based on the credible threat of force and Biden has completely abandoned that stance preemptively when it comes to Ukraine. Putin isn’t going to stop at Ukraine either. Biden doesn’t have to put troops on the ground but he doesn’t have to take them off the table either. Again, credible threat has value. No one wants WW3, especially Putin, but he’ll level Ukraine if he can get away with it and move on to the next atrocity. Some superpower we are. I hope the Ukrainians can win on their own, I hope this works out but if it doesn’t, it’s because we did stop it early on and then we will have bigger problems.
  21. Ukraine is getting leveled on his watch, not exactly a success story.
  22. Yeah, I don’t like the fairy tale either. Still found the image/idea moving, knowing it’s a fairy tale.
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