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Hugo Stiglitz

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Everything posted by Hugo Stiglitz

  1. Imperialist Russia was probably a bad place to first attempt communism.
  2. If our politicians were serious about neutralizing Putin’s capabilities for the long term they’d be passing sweeping anti-corruption legislation, banning dark money, seizing oligarch property, prosecuting Trump for his numerous crimes in office that also so happened to protect the Kremlin from accountability. They’re not going to do that though because reasons. So excuse me when I question these claims that we’re doing everything we can right now.
  3. Putin will continue attempting to subvert Western democracies through non-military aggression, this is a certainty. You’re right, this isn’t Poland 1939. Hitler didn’t have Facebook and nukes. While the the traditional kinetic warfare threat of Russia isn’t as impressive as the Third Reich, their toolkit of weapons to subjugate populations with Kremlin friendly fascist regimes is still real and sadly proven effective in some places (Not Ukraine tho!). With it we will deal I guess.
  4. China isn’t going to stop buying from Russia and Russia’s tolerance for economic pain isn’t known for being weak. We buy a lot of assembled shit from China, much of it with raw materials they buy from Russia. Putin is still going to be getting a lot of money from us indirectly through China. I have no good solution for this elephant in the room.
  5. How is it being dismantled? He’s leveling the largest country in Europe because they will not submit and it doesn’t look like we’re going to stop him from doing it. It seems like Putin’s message to Eastern Europe is clear, “comply or be annihilated. The West will not save you.” Some recent things the U.S. administration has done have been good but our long term approach to Putin has been an objective failure and allowed him to get this far, it’s been far from perfect. It may seem like time is on our side now but things can change quickly. Like Trump or some other Putin stooge being elected President in two years. I want to think the administration is handling this well but the risk-averse politically expedient approach is partially to blame for enabling this mess. Only time will tell.
  6. A difference is this is not a proxy war like Vietnam or Korea. This is THE Russian military on the battlefield in person. It’s more akin to their Afghanistan excursion in the 1980s and we appear to be approaching it as such.
  7. How about Belarus? Here’s a perspective from their side (copy pasted from Twitter, @AlinaLeonovaSF) “I'm Belarusian. Seeing more and more hate against Belarusians as a result of Lukashenko's participation in Putin's atrocious war against Ukraine, I have a few things to say. But first, disclaimers: - I'm against the war (and so are 90% of Belarusians) - I'm against using Belarusian territory / equipment / military etc. against Ukraine (and so are 90% of Belarusians) - I've helped and will keep helping Ukrainian refugees in Poland where I am now Let me remind you that Belarus is an authoritarian country. We haven't chosen this government. We've tried to overthrow it, and we failed. We paid with our lives, blood and freedom for the attempt. So let me tell you what Belarusians are doing to support Ukraine. Those who live in Ukraine: - have joined territorial defense forces - stayed to keep working as doctors - are volunteering to help those affected by the war in every possible way Those abroad: - are donating money & things to help refugees, the military & people in Ukraine - are going to Ukraine to join its armed forces - have bought & donated equipment (eg. ambulances) to Ukraine - are volunteering and helping refuges - invite refuges into their homes Ppl in Belarus: - are protesting against the war - donating - have sabotaged the railway to stop Russian military equipment from going to Ukraine (considered terrorism and is punishable by life in prison or death sentence) - perform various underground acts of sabotage & resistance, including economic resistance and hacktivism This is not a complete list. I don't know everything, but I know that Belarusians are doing what they can. You say it's not enough. So let me tell you what it's like for us. We've lived under oppression for almost 30 years. Almost 30 years that Lukashenko has been strengthening his position and eliminating every possible threat to his rule, every public initiative & social structure. Everyone who has any power at all has been carefully selected. There has been constant propaganda & surveillance. We haven't had a real election since 1994. Lukashenko's political opponents have been killed & imprisoned. Every protest ended in brutal crackdown. 2020 wasn't the first time we protested, but perhaps it was the first time you've noticed us. The whole society united. We've failed (so far, because it's not the end of our fight). During and after the protests, Belarusians have been killed, maimed, raped & tortured. Over 50,000 have gone through brutal repressions. About 1000 people are currently political prisoners (add to them about 800 arrested during the latest protest against the war in Ukraine — we don't know what's happening to them). For the last 1,5 years, the oppression has only grown worse. Every social organization has been destroyed. Not only political ones, but also those that help domestic violence victims, animals or feed the homeless. NOTHING is left. EVERY alternative source of information has been declared 'extremist', and people have gone to prison for sharing the materials from those 'extremist' sources in PRIVATE messages. People were arrested for their HAIR COLOR. All our independent journalists are either in prison or abroad. Arrests keep happening every day. Prison sentences go up to 20 years. Hundreds of thousands have fled the country. We're still grieving and processing the trauma. The morale is very low. The risks are extremely high. Now go back and read again what Belarusians are doing to help Ukraine and think again if it's not enough. If you live in a democratic country, you have no right to judge us. You have no idea what it's like. You think you would be brave and protest openly? You'd just be thrown into prison to rot and very likely tortured. If you died during torture, lost your pregnancy or became permanently disabled, no one would be held accountable. It's actually ENCOURAGED. It has happened before. Today, Belarusians are starting to face discrimination in European countries where they've fled from the regime and where many of them are helping Ukrainian refugees and Ukrainian fight for freedom. Czechia has stopped opening visas to Belarusians. Europeans have refused to rent apartments to Belarusians, have banned them from participating in amateur sports competitions, refused them their services. They are bullying Belarusians online and to their faces. Immigrants already deal with grief and trauma in the aftermath of our failed protests. They worry about their families and friends who still live in Belarus (and some of whom are imprisoned). They worry about the Russian occupation of their land. They grieve for Ukraine. But apparently, that's not enough, and now we also have to deal with hate and discrimination based on our nationality. Without Putin, Lukashenko can't survive. Putin is the only one who supports him financially and keeps him in power. Lukashenko has sold Belarus to Putin to stay on his fucking throne. Putin knows Lukashenko has no other options, so he's using him and Belarus for this invasion. Belarusians have nothing to do with it. We have fought and are still fighting even if you don't see it. So please, do everything to help Ukraine and stop this horror, but leave us the fuck alone. We have enough on our plate. We don't deserve this shit, and it fucking hurts.”
  8. How about not take shit off the table because “Putin is scary.” The administration looks weak right now. When you publicly say you don’t want to escalate Putin reads that as a green light to keep escalating.
  9. She’s more along the John McCain side of the “resistance”.
  10. I would have us cheat. Cheat like hell. Give the Ukrainians the best real time intel. Sneak in the jets or have them mysteriously “stolen.” Convince some of our billionaires to “hire” mercenaries. Anything we can do with the thinnest veil of plausible deniability. Assuming Ukraine would approve, which of course they would.
  11. I’m only advocating for whatever it takes to humiliate the Russian army out of Ukraine as fast as possible without overt U.S. military intervention. I hope we’re doing as much as possible behind the scenes to make it happen but I have my doubts based on how previous administration have approached this guy. Putin isn’t going to nuke us for the same reason North Korea isn’t. MAD actually works. I don’t believe he’s looking to take on NATO right now, because it would be suicidal with the military he has BUT he will keep pushing the envelope until NATO responds, he’s betting they won’t and so far he’s been right. Letting Putin hang around in Ukraine to bomb maternity hospitals and nuclear facilities ain’t a good strategy either.
  12. We’re not and it’s infuriating. People talking about off ramps and how we shouldn’t do this or that. I’m like “this dude is finally on life support, now is the time to drop the anvil, do not resuscitate.” I hope I’m wrong but I suspect the powers that be have some interest in keeping Putin around or prolonging the war in Ukraine in hopes that it’s enough to contain him. Again, I hope I’m wrong.
  13. I consider China communist in name only. It’s not an egalitarian society or even trying to be. They love their slave labor and blood money like everyone else.
  14. Putin hasn’t lost it. He might have miscalculated a little but this gambit in Ukraine is exactly what anyone paying attention should have seen coming. Years of the West failing to stand up to this guy gave him the permission structure to attempt this. Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, Brexit, 2016 election. Putin got away with all of it with nominal wrist slaps. He’s not going to stop either.
  15. I feel like I’m watching the run up to the 2016 election again except this time there’s a body count and mass graves.
  16. So much this. It’s driving me crazy
  17. Arguably the government lying all the time and ZERO accountability contributed to our susceptibility to online disinformation. You look at other western democracies where people have a higher trust in government and they can handle things like a pandemic much better.
  18. Somehow giving Ukraine a few dozen jets is MORE provocative than collapsing the entire Russian economy. Make it make sense.
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