
Wulaw Horn
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn
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Yordan and meyers? Ok- 5 and a couple interesting guys? If you moved both of them that would be about what you’d expect to net. You think the Yankees or dodgers wouldn’t give up like 4 of their top 6 or 7 players for Yordan? Giants maybe? Hell Seattles stacked in the minor leagues and they are cheap. Milwaukee could say- this is the best position player we could ever get and we get him for cheap- especially if they get really close to winning it all this year but fall short. andrew wants to trade Hunter Brown bc he’s convinced it’s an existential certainty he misses the better part of 2 of the next 3 years.
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I would love absolutely all of those 3 guys as managers.
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I always thought of the Angels of Trout and Ohtani as stars and scrubs. I always thought the Astros super power was they never played a bunch of (any really) scrubs during the golden years (in addition to developing pitching guys out of thin air). This year it got scrubby b/c of absurd amount of injuries, many of which are of the variety you wouldn't expect.
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My dream offseason (I think): Out: Yordan, Walker & Melton, Meyers, Framber, Chas, Dubon, Trammell, LMJ + Matthews (90M in 2025 dollars out). Rationale- as a barely top 100 player Matthews has 15-20M in historical surplus value. LMJ has 1 year 18M left. Maybe he can be rehabbed. Christin Walker's contract is probably about 10M upside down. That's about how much Surplus value Melton has. In: Alonzo (3/120 or 8/200), Sale (3/100) or Cease (6/175), 6 top 100 prospects, Caratini (2/20), 1 comp pick. (70M or so in). Rationale: ALonzo hits bombs and plays everyday. He's not as good a hitter as Yordan, but he plays everyday. Sale is still filthy, Cease is filthy. Yordan and Meyers you use to rebuild the farm system. Caratini is perfect backup catcher/PH/part time DH and a good fit here. Resulting roster: Diaz, Caratini, Alonso, Paredes, Pena, Correa, Altuve, Cole, Smith, Sanchez, Dezenzo, Urias, Whitcomb. Tell Smith he needs to learn to play CF and pull the ball in the air and he can become a star. If not he can platoon with Cole in CF, Sanchez/Dezenzo platoon in RF and Altuve mixes in at LF some. No more 2b for altuve- that's paredes and Urias for the most part, very little LF for him- mostly DH. That's someting like 30 War on the position player side if they are all healthy. Pitching be fine if you add a Sale or Cease to what we already have. That team is under the Luxury tax and the farm is top 5 or 8 in baseball.
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After the very good trade deadline Dana had it should pretty clearly get better in that we shouldn't have to give hardly any of those 1000 ab's to guys that suck. Think about it- if we had just had to give like 900 instead of 1000 we are in the playoffs pretty clearly. Figure on next year having 500 or fewer AB's that go to guys that can't hit (if we stay reasonably healthy) and we are good.
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I agree with all of this except for the stars and scrubs comment. Yeah- we had a lot of scrubs that got major AB's this year, but that's b/c we just got absolutely hammered by the injury bug and that's just going to be a thing that happens. I think you are right that Dubon is gone but tell me who the scrub is from this group of 13 (what I think will be the opening day position player roster: Diaz, Caratini, Walker, Paredes, Pena, Correa, Urias, Yordan, Altuve, Meyers, Sanchez, Smith, Dezenzo or Matthews or Melton or Cole. I mean, the scrub is probably the 13th guy but they at least have upside. I don't see a scrub in the lineup- if anything I think the problem is lack of stars b/c it's really just Yordan you can count on to be a star (and he's made of glass) though Pena, Paredes, Diaz, Correa and Smith if he retools the swing stuff and learns from crashing into the rookie wall could all have the opportunity to be stars. Or Jose with a bounce back year. But, I see basically 1 star, 5 above average players, 6 average players and 1 lotto ticket as likely from that group of 13. The biggest benefit of that lineup (if all healthy) would be that it's deep and absent any guys that can't play. Now- if we have to get deeper than that 15 for real playing time then that's a real problem b/c there's nothing in the minors I want to see on the position player side in 2026. There are a fair bit of pitchers I'm interested in seeing. And we will probably see them all as arms get shredded.
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Assuming you have a pitcher who doesn't explode his elbow or fuck up his shoulder. So, we'd need 3 JAGs to replicate that.
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Sure. That's why I'd sign an ace (it would be Sale). I laid out optmist case scenario for Ullola, Blubaugh, Javier and Arrighetti. If you sign an ace you need one of those guys to hit in a big way and 2 of them to not be terrible. That's a reasonable bet, to my way of thinking. What you don't have is a hammer other than Brown. If you are going to win the WS you need 3 or 4 stud arms (2 SP and 2 back end of the bullpen guys) and you need 4 or 5 other dudes you can trust. What I see is 3 studs and plenty enough to pick from where I think by playoff time we can fill in the other 4 or 5 dudes you can trust. I'm just not worried about it. You are missing one of the studs. Go get one.
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My Budget as of now: SP: 75M Brown: 7M (arb 1) Javier: 13M (2/42 left on deal) Ullola- 1M Arrighetti- 1M Blubaugh- 1M Dead Money (LMJ)- (18M- last year) Injured List- 2M FA- 30M Bullpen: 30M Hader: 19M (3/57 left) Abreu: 5 M (Arb 3) No FA- all minimum type guys: Infield (ish): 95M Diaz- 5M (arb 1) Walker- 20M (2/40 left) Altuve- 25M (4/92 left) Paredes (10M- arb 3- he's super 2 so 2 more go rounds) Correa: 21 M (It's complicated... guaranteed 3/61M) Pena: 9M (arb 2) Urias: 5M (arb 3) OF/Backup catcher: 40M Yordan: 19M (3/80 left) Meyers: 5M (arb 2) Sanchez: 7M (arb 3 but super 2, so just like Paredes) Smith: 1M Dezenzo: 1M Backup Catcher- 7M. Gone (trade or non-tender) Dubon, Chas, Caratini (hope he comes back for the 7M- I'd go 2/20 probably), Trammell Total: 240M (spending 30M on a FA pitcher and 7-10M on a backup catcher). The tax line is like 244M but you have to factor in like 17M for extra bennies. So- the actual answer for how much they have to spend (if they non-tender Dubon and Chas and let Caratini go) on FA pitching and backup catcher is something like 17M. I'd spend 40 and do something like trade Walker and Melton to AZ for nothing. Maybe Colorado. Walker's contract isn't that upside down. My 26 man roster would look something like this: Sale, Brown, Javier, Ullola, Blubaugh, Arrighetti, Hader, Abreu, Souza, Okert, King, Murray, Santa Diaz, Paredes, Altuve, Pena, Correa, Sanchez, Meyers, Smith, Yordan Bench- Urias, Dezenzo, Caratini, Matthews If you want to non-tender Sanchez b/c you believe in Cole I'm fine with that. He and Dezenzo can platoon. Manager- Hinch. His contract is up. Allegedly he's got multiple houses in Houston and would be VERY interested in a reunion.
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We've got more internal options than you think, imo. Hunter Brown is established as a Cy Young level guy now that's beyond a doubt a thing that exists. Cristian Javier looked fine to me- his velocity was back and good, he was missing bats with the invisiiball again. 3.65 FIP is just fine. He's a guy you will be fine with starting in the playoffs. Arrighetti, if his elbow is structurally sound (they say it is- but you never know with those guys) is just fine as a guy you can trust to be a quality pitcher. Blubaugh, I think, showed out as to why I was so excited about him this offseason. I think it was a big problem that we didn't go to him earlier in the year and give him a bigger role. I'd have had him up with the big league club all year from when he made his debut. Ullola has Cy Young ceiling to me. I feel about him the same way I felt about Hunter Brown. I really like guys who keep the ball on the ground and miss bats. If anyone can get away with walks it's that type of guy. I think that's a guy that you should feel pretty comfortable giving you innings at a qualiy level. Jason Alexander- What a wonderful memory that guy will always have about the summer of George. 4-2 with a 3.66 era 14 games with 12 of them being quality apperances. I think the team was something like 11-3 in games he pitched. He would have been an all time legendary deep cut guy (like Brandon Backe or the great Bill Spiers) if we'd have made the playoffs and he'd have had a moment there. We should immediately forget everything he did well there and consider it all fools gold and make no plan for him being a part of the plans going forward. LMJ- tell him he's a RP or not on the team. Tell him he's going to throw curve balls until his elbow explodes 1 inning at a time or be DFA'd. And then if that doesn't work so be it. Not part of the plan. AAA Fodder (guys I would trust down there to come up on a temporary basis- like 3 turns through the rotation). JP France Colton Gordon TJ candidates that should be back sometime in July: Ronel Blanco- Don't know that I'm buying on him ever replicating 2024 season, but fine with him as a BOR starter Wesneski- DItto Blanco. Guys that are out for 2026 Walter- too bad- of all the guys that came up from the Law Firm he had the stuff that made me think he was going to be ok. Luis Garcia- Have to think he's going to get DFA'd. Makes no sense to do anything other than that or sign him to like a 2 year deal for 3M or something- but I'd be opposed to that. Intruiging guys in the minor leagues: Ethan Pecko- I'd probably like to see him get the entire year in AAA next year, but I'd go to him right now before JP France or Gordon if it was a matter of replacing a guy for the year Alonzo Tredwell- Big Dude that uses his leverage to shorten distance to home plate as opposed to thorw hard- but he had a really interesting last month of the season. Very young in an innings pitched sense if not age as he was hurt out of college. I'm interested. Jose Fleury- I've heard they like him. Who knows. TLDR Summary: You have an ace in Hunter Brown, you have a guy I'd trust in a playoff series right now in Cristian Javier, you have Arrighetti, Blubaugh and Ullola who I'm excited to see pitch as regulars in MLB, then you have 3 guys at AAA in Alexander, Gordon and France that probably won't shit the bed, 2 guys that should be back from TJ next year and then 3 or 4 intruiging propsects that could pitch in 2026. I think we have BOR and emergency guys covered. I think an Ace makes sense. Chris Sale, Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez would be my free agent list of guys. If I can't get one of them I think I'd pass on any FA pitcher. You should have up to about 35M to spend and be able to stay under the tax line.
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2025 CFB Playoff Predictions - Often Wrong, But Never In Doubt
Wulaw Horn replied to closetojumping's topic in Football
Eh. Fun to have the first 3 numbers on the lotto ticket and then dream. -
2025 CFB Playoff Predictions - Often Wrong, But Never In Doubt
Wulaw Horn replied to closetojumping's topic in Football
Ha! not saying it’s guaranteed or anything, but yeah. -
Could this be the craziest coaching carousel of all time?
Wulaw Horn replied to GreenspointTexas's topic in Football
Cignetti is old, but if that doesn’t bother you he’s top of my list if I’m a blue blood and ok with a 5 year type hire. -
Morgan Ensberg! I don’t know. Someone smart who’s not a dickhead. A that asking too much? Probably I guess.
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Going into the year a lot of people had this game circled on the calendar as the most important of the year. The idea being there was a good chance we lose to Ohio State and or Georgia on the road, while beating OU and aggy bc they weren’t supposed to be all that good, so this game was going to be the pivot point on if we made the playoffs or not. Lots of talk about Florida being good. Oh Noe’s Lagaway is a player- home field and him might be worth a 40 point swing or whatever it was from last year. I was not worried about them all that much. I think they sort of suck and sun belt Billy couldn’t coach his way out of a paper bag. So, I got that part right. I also thought our team was going to be awesome. We’ve seen exactly one data point of us looking awesome, against Sam Houston. Defense has been really good to amazing all year. Running backs are meh. The offensive line sort of sucks it looks like, but that probably shouldn’t be a thing that derails a season if Arch can hit pretty simple concepts and not look like a spastic scrub. So far, he’s been basically the anti Quinn- really strong in the pocket, good awareness, able to run, fine on the deep ball, but… pretty shitty at everything else. Which is weird because he played 2.5 games last year and was really really good. I thought he started off slow last week (even his completions I didn’t think were in the right place) but by the end of the game he was rolling and dropping dimes and looking like the guy I think we all thought he would be. If early season games were the yips, he’s worked through them, and what we saw in Q2 and Q3 against Sam are what he’s going to be thankful for the ceiling of this team definitely goes back to national title. What we’ve seen, that I didn’t expect, was a pretty grim floor from the offense. looking forward to being in Gainesville for the game- who all is going? (Buy tailgate tickets here) https://tailgate.surlyhorns.com/event/10/surly-horns-on-texas-football-road-tailgate-texas-at-florida-longhorn-swamp-cruise Hook Em high like an eagle soars. Even with OU next week I don’t think there’s any way this team isn’t completely and totally full of focusness for the gators.
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This team was on pace for 100 wins after sweeping the dodgers. The injury bug really showed itself in July but Dana made 3 good trades at the deadline to make the lineup have the potential of being credible every day. They didn’t hit. When they should have been able to. They always pitched even with arms going down by the shitload. joe Espada is a paint chip eating moron that I hope we’ve seen the last of. Dana Brown can stay I have no problem with him.
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Because of course he has.
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I assume he’s out for the year no matter how far we go. Obliques don’t heal quickly.
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I don’t think there’s any way espn could do something like that bc of how it would tarnish their relationships with other schools. It would be hysterical though.
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He’s a better player than Dubon. Slow Joe gets it wrong. Go figure.
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What a collection of fucking clowns.
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Man sorry to hear that. Prayers for his full recovery so he can figure out how good he can be.
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Honestly if we were dogs against OU (or aggy) I would be wrong in what I was saying. The main push back was that people were falling for 9 win 8 win 7 win ceilings and my point was we should be favored at a minimum to be 10-2.
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So, tonight went as bad as it could go. we wanted Detroit, Toronto and the Yankees to win (and I suppose in hope against hope Colorado) all 3 of those teams lost. this is almost a must win game tonight.
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Detroit is 2 games up on us (1 actual and tie break). We want Cleveland to get swept by them Bro. 2nd best option probably Det 2/3. 3rd best option Cleveland sweep.
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