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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Tell me what I’m missing in really small words like I’m an idiot to explain how this tax policy is killing us. I see flat revenue for 3 years and then huge growth afterwards. The 15t or whatever added to debt is entirely a spending problem. pit another way/ I will bet you 2 or 3 years from now the budget deficit is lower than it was in 23 and 24.
  2. Is this where I’m supposed to blame tax policy in late 2017 (no affect until 2018 on revenues) on exploding the deficit? Year Total Receipts (USD) 2024 $5.143 trillion 2023 $4.869 trillion 2022 $5.154 trillion 2021 $4.451 trillion 2020 $3.786 trillion 2019 $3.721 trillion 2018 $3.606 trillion 2017 $3.760 trillion 2016 $3.481 trillion 2015 $3.469 trillion
  3. The bolded part is the main point/ nothing we are doing now is fundamentally different than doing nothing is my point. also- revenues are up bigly from 2017. We have a spending problem not a revenue problem. We are not serious about that. We won’t be serious about that. So none of the other shit matters. as far as the 2001 and 2017 cuts go that you are taking a victory lap on you are wrong. Maybe I should say you should be better than that. Show me on the chart where revenues declined in any kind of appreciable manner and I will maybe consider giving a shit about that.
  4. I don’t know what that even means. It’s funny- someone was bragging upthread about their 6.875% interest rate they just signed. I have closed 40 deals so far and exactly one of them had a rate over 6.875%. 1/2 my deals have buy downs I paid on them at better than that. Whatever. I’m the dumbest mortgage broker in America in that I work for an average of 122 basis points a transaction (gross) and the only reason it’s that high is because I typically have a 40 or 60 bip incentive on the vast majority of my files.
  5. No- you are misunderstood what I was saying. What I am saying is that so far the parade of horribles spoken about from runaway inflation due to Tariffs has not happened. Might it? Maybe. There’s also smart people saying it won’t be near as bad as predicted, and to the extent we see any increase it will be a one time event. I’m generally pretty anti-Tariff as any kind of permanent governing philosophy, I’m just skeptical of pretty much every economic figure I see problem yammering about. Their track record essentially sucks. Time will tell.
  6. Yes. Insurance is an absolute besting right now in Texas. It’s a massive problem. Get a broker and they might be able to save you some of that increase but it’s still a no lube at all situation.
  7. It's an appetizer before the Ronel Blanco is gone for the 2025 and 2026 season coming later this afternoon.
  8. I don't think so. If there was a big labor stoppage where another year got majorly missed then I think it might become a talking point for guys who had 2 years messed up, but if that's the only blip I sort of doubt it ever becomes a thing.
  9. Maybe. I said I think he gets in- I'd call it 51/49- but I'm not saying that with any certainty. Baines got in with like 40 and some other dudes didn't get in with 60 war. It's really dumb. He's got a really good post season resume and he's pretty damn famous, and lots of all stars- that typically tends to carry a lot of weight. Black ink test he's at 10 (avg HOF 27). Grey ink test hes at 96 (avg HOF 144) Bill James Hall of fame monitor he's at 170- (avg HOF 100). 170 is like slam-dunk territory- and that's b/c of his 5 SS, 8 All stars and MVP- it's a profile that ALWAYS gets in) Jaws- Altuve is at 51.5. Avg HOF is 56.9. He's not helping himself any on his 7 year peak, so he's got to get another 6 war or so in his career to get there. I have always maintained that Utley should be in the HOF. Utley has better War and Jaws numbers than altuve. Altuve has more hits, fewer HR's, a better batting avg, more all star games, silver sluggers, MVP's Gold Gloves and a 10 point higher OPS+ (which will come down). Hopefully this is just a blip. I will say this- I love Altuve but I've always maintained people who had ascribed Astro GOAT to him were doing so too prematurely. If this is it I say Altuve goes behind Bagwell and Biggio as the 3rd greatest Astro overall player. With post season success, titles and all that stuff if you want to call him the Astro MVP of all time I'm ok with that.
  10. My house isn't ever getting sold for a similar reason brother.
  11. In the last 12 months I have put people in 30 year fixed mortgages (where I paid all the closing costs) as low as 5.625. I unloaded 20 or so one month at 6.125. Also a bunch of other refinance rates between 6.3 and 6.75. This stuff goes up and down and around and around. What you can pretty much count on, imo, is at least a point spread between the high and low. So far, the high spread (I think) for the year is like 7.25% and the low is like 6.6% I hope we get to our 1 point difference between max and min for the year by hitting 6.25% at some point in time, as opposed to hitting 7.6% on the high end (it's not a guarantee there's a 1 point max/min difference but it's pretty close). The key, as a consumer to my way of thinking, is to be set up with someone who has your best interests at heart and to pay as little as possible for every transaction when rates are high (b/c you are more likely to carry that rate for less time) and to never do something short term or dumb like an arm when rates are low. How I've handled this market is: 1) Be a broker- pricing is better (from a consumer standpoint- work with a Broker- they are better and all the data says it) 2) offer to solve everyone's problem (high rates) with an incentive up front and a promise down the road. So- when you are a well qualified buyer and come into my shop and the average rate is 7.125% I say- here are 2 options: 1) I will give you 3/8 better than the average, or 2) I will do a 1 point buy down for the first year at national average (7.125 bought down to 6.125%) this allows us to kick the can down the road for a year while you get used to the new payments and go from there. At the end of a year (but I will start watching in 6 months when my EPO goes away) I will refinance you for free at or better than national average (or a number that we agree on before hand depending on your credit situation). That puts you in the following situation: You get 1 point lower than average for the first year or you get 5/8 better than the smoking low rate I'd otherwise give you). If you make it through the entire year without refinancing first you will have saved X amount. Once you start paying it back at the non discounted rate you are paying back about 1/30'th higher than you would otherwise be paying back if you would have taken the lower rate. So- what that means is the dude with the 1 point buy down today has 42 months to refinance before he would be better off having taken the discounted "permanent" rate. I don't know the future, but I'm pretty much willing to bet whatever amount of money you want that if the national average is 7.125% today, sometime in the next 42 month it will get below 6.75% which is where your break even point would be if you would have sworn off the 1 point buy down up front and just taken the rate 3/8 lower 3) When it comes to refinancing (in a high rate enviroment) don't pay costs and don't be greedy! We are still in a pretty high interest rate environment if you look historically over the last 30 or so years. If you signed up at 7 and I offer you 6.5 paying all your costs just do it. There's literally nothing that can go wrong with that deal. You win. Is it possible you could have won more if you waited another 3 weeks? Sure, but it's more likely that you will lose. Over the last 12 months there have been 3 really solid times to refinance- one of those times lasted 4 days, one lasted 2 days and one lasted about 4 hours. Did I make phone calls during all those times? You bet. Do I make them to database at other times? Not really- I don't want to mess around with pushing any deal that could bring any pain in anyway to my borrowers- so it's free (right now) or I'm not calling. Now- if/when rates get down to 4 will I think this is the correct strategy? No- pay your own closing costs then- get the lowest rate possible (provided you like the house and are going to be there for a while) and figure you've hit the jackpot. I think I mentioned I was fortunate to be one of the (almost) top 100 brokers in America last year. I have closed a lot of transactions. The last 3 years a lot of them in high interest rate environments. I currently have exactly 11 borrowers in my past customer list (closing in on 1,000) paying interest rates over 7. I can tell you the story on every single one of them too, b/c I've contacted almost all of them with an opportunity to get out: 1) Awful credit- fha loan- can't make 6 payments in a row to streamline, 2) bank Statment loan at 7.125. She was supposed to start paying taxes but didn't. 3) Blind guy that has a 7.125 fHA- got offered 3 times to do 6.5% or better for free (nah- Gabe- that's not enough savings- lets just wait until it matters. Ok- dude- 13 months later you are still pissing it away). 4) Obstinate jackass, 5) Lost his job- doesn't qulaify 6) Won't call me back 7) in processs right now 8 ) same story as the blind guy but not blind. Walked away from a 1.4 point saving for free 2 months ago. Not enough money. Dude- we are at the closing table and that's your call? Have fun with the 7.75% for life. 9) Bank statement at 7.5. 10) turned down 3 chances at it. Waiting for a full point. I'm like- dude- this is free- no downside- yeah but I mean- a point- who cares about saving $350 a month today if you could chase an extra $150 a month savings later. Never mind that I told him I'd do it for him again FOR FREE if he waits 6 months. 11) Just a small loan amount. I can't build in enough points to cover their appraisal, lender fees and title fees. Since we can't do for free we are waiting until we get a significant interest point savings for him. That's it. When rates were 7.75% I told my people- don't worry we will put you at 6.75% for a year and take care of you. And we did. Same with at 7.125. same with 6.75. I'm staring to wonder if the people who had 6.5's that got bought down to 5.5 are ever going to see that 5.5 again but I bet it happens. I'd actually be pretty surprised if it didn't but who knows. This outlook is a mix of optimism (someday- rates will be better and we will take care of it) mixed with pessmism (we don't know when that will happen so take a temp 1 point buy down and we will monitor the shit out of it for the next 42 months and you will probably win). The right answer for what to do about the market today (in these times) is always the same- LOCK!
  12. Nah. His postseason numbers are awesome and he has what- 9 All Star games (think it probably ends there) and an MVP. If he were to retire tomorrow I think he gets in. If he clears 250 HR and 2500 hits (which is almost a guarantee regardless of how washed he is) I can't imagine him not getting in in 3 or 4 ballots.
  13. He’s earned every penny of what we are going to pay him. From a fairness perspective I’m fine with it. The biggest problem, imo, is how do you turn him into a part time player when he’s conclusively washed? Painful. At least with Biggio we weren’t really trying to win anything.
  14. Well one of mine was a sarcastic negative about the astros training staff so I really only did 9.
  15. The Bennigan's closest to me on 1960 in Houston had like 2 shootings over the course of a month. Shit gets serious when Monte Christos are involved. Also- I stand by being mystified that yall can't understand adding salsa to queso that is too cheesy. Do you mock people who mix in rotel with Velveeta? Ground beef or guacamole like chuy's awesomness? what about a quirt of Chulula? Like I can't even fathom why this is an odd thing at all. I even thought I had permission when I said "this is too cheesy-anyone mind and hefted the salsa up and got no response." As a (probably) Aspy I can't fathom how yall don't get this, but there is a lot about the world that puzzles me, so I suppose you can just add this to the list.
  16. So, not great Bob. Back to looking like 7 & 1/8 is par. And continue to spin around on the merry go round of suck.
  17. @Macklemore asked for it- Andrew's top 5 reasons he hates watching this Astros team. https://medium.com/@breathingorangefire_71114/5-things-i-hate-about-the-2025-astros-f8241b2fe998
  18. Using the chip to stir? Absolutely sounds like something I would do. Using my finger? Completely and totally unclassy. Thank you for setting that record straight. The 20k thing and walk on's is a good call- I think the point was- if we can figure out a preferred walk on- why not get him 20k to be the equivalent of a scholarship player who doesn't have to pay for school. Much like I was trying to find 50k to steal the OU WR from them- yes- I was absolutely in to do something I could personally make happen and when yall had the idea that you did to make it this big I said- that's outside of my skill set- good luck to yall. Yall accomplished it and that's so amazing- I'm proud to know yall and think that yall probably did more for the football program than all but maybe 30 or 50 living alumni. Hats off. 100%. My point is- I'm not lying about anything queso related- and I would have absolutely not poured the queso into the salsa- everyone knows you pour the salsa into the queso- that I've done 100 times in my life. Anything else would and should be considered fake news.
  19. It’s coming tomorrow from andrew.
  20. He had to come up with a way to top getting picked off 2X yesterday. it was masterfully done. The 1980’s cardinals would do that against us in a 4 game series.
  21. It’s like auto advance on the base paths can have downside to it. also- probably shouldn’t hit the leadoff hitter when you have him down 0-2.
  22. He’s had some really rough strike calls on him all year (Cam too), hit into some bad luck and a lot of suck. I think there’s better in there for him. We will see in the second half.
  23. Have a first start kid!
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