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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. the answer is hidden within.
  2. Groping? That’s what’s going to end him? Yeah.
  3. gosh, why do women seem to be running from the R party?
  4. Never mind the above. "If current rates of return" is the issue. The current rates can't continue until 1.95 M are returned. You'd end up with more D ballots returned than issued.
  5. firewall guy says 1.95M total likely. If current rates of return end up getting us to 1.95, you end up with this: 1188430 D 569416.3 R 192153.7 I D - R + .4 I = 695,875 firewall. That seems so easy beyond the 500k firewall needed that i wonder if i'm doing something wrong. (".4" I based on assumed 70-30 D split on I's. even a 50-50 split on I's gives you 619,013 firewall)
  6. i've got some excellent news for you. also, interesting quote from Nate Silver's NYT opinion today:
  7. Imma guess this was Sam's quote: "As a Stanford alum, and valedictorian of my high school, I think it is really interesting to me that there is a video of Donald Trump saying such an awful phrase given my high academic achievements at Stanford and before, but most notably Stanford."
  8. firewall inventor guy revises to say Ds should feel good at 500K now instead of 390K.
  9. (troph is not speaking with troph's voice here)
  10. who has even heard of nazis?
  11. To use a fishing analogy, his "shoelaces are tied together."
  12. Yes! 538 officially says that no matter who you want to win, that's probably not going to happen. Harris 499 Trump 498 No winner 3 1,000 simulations https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
  13. intentionally leave off NE2 or was that an accident?
  14. This board: She's focusing on the states that matter! She's not dumb like Hillary! She's leaving the states that matter! She knows it's in the bag!
  15. by comparison, 2020 looked like 59D-35R : https://www.aaiusa.org/library/the-arab-american-vote-2020
  16. Does the 390K buffer number for PA make sense given how different early voting is this time than last time? Wasn't that number built on expectations of people's early vs day-of voting looking like previous years -- and we're already seeing it doesn't?
  17. FYI regarding gender breakdown of electorate historically. https://infogram.com/number-turnout-presidential-years-fig-2-1hmr6g7730lyo6n 2020 was 53.1% female. So that 55.2 is a good number.
  18. Legitimately baffled why he could think that’s a forgone conclusion in Trump’s favor.
  19. I mean, yeah. For about 50 years now.
  20. it's gonna be 270 on the nose. blue wall states, no sun belt.
  21. be interesting to see what they have to say about the statute of limitations.
  22. This is one where I think the data is definitely off. Posited: 1) people tend to gamble for the result they want to happen. 2) males gamble on predictit more than females. 3) this year will see uniquely high gender polarization. = predictit saying Trump will win handily.
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