Jump to content

BehoId, The Underminer!

Full Members
  • Posts

    5864
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. Legitimately baffled why he could think that’s a forgone conclusion in Trump’s favor.
  2. I mean, yeah. For about 50 years now.
  3. it's gonna be 270 on the nose. blue wall states, no sun belt.
  4. be interesting to see what they have to say about the statute of limitations.
  5. This is one where I think the data is definitely off. Posited: 1) people tend to gamble for the result they want to happen. 2) males gamble on predictit more than females. 3) this year will see uniquely high gender polarization. = predictit saying Trump will win handily.
  6. My wife phonebanked for GA yesterday. Talked with three folks. One was a "the system is fucked, I'm not voting" millennial. After a 40 minute conversation, he said "I still don't know if I'll end up voting, but if I do it'll be for Kamala and it'll be because of this call."
  7. “Think how dumb the average person is. Now realize (etc etc)”. G Carlin, foreseeing Michies arrival. We talked about this with respect to FL and TX. These are not independent variables.
  8. Looks like 2 days until Jimmy Carter can vote.
  9. If Trump loses, does he run again in 28? On one hand, O. L. D. On the other hand, he’s shown that he can push around every other R without even breaking a sweat and the position pays like none other in his life.
  10. Shedding 5% would be a net loss over shedding 15% if the base of the first is 3x the second. Which it is.
  11. if you're from oklahoma, it's likely you live in your car. mortgage deduction.
  12. there's another side of this coin you're leaving off.
  13. You’ll have to ask nicely to 2/3 of the states.
  14. It’s also just dumb. State lines are arbitrary things then. It’s no different than saying you’re ceding the elections to the left 2/3rds of the country.
  15. today they said it was sunny, but just last week they said it was rainy! make up your mind, weatherman!
  16. repeated claims on here that media promotes 50-50 as it generates clicks. biggest evidence against that: 2016 and 2020 were not promoted as 50-50s, even though they probably should have been. Clinton has 71% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Biden has 89% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ why did these pundits suddenly realize 50-50 generates more clicks? biden was never close to 50-50 the whole year, clinton pinched down toward 50-50 twice, but spent much more time in the 75% range.
  17. These hurricanes are really big deals. I bet there are millions spread between FL, GA, and NC -- all important states in this election -- that simply won't vote because they are too busy getting their lives back together. We talk about whatever Muslim group in MI or whatever. These two weather events will outpace them all.
  18. I think it just shows the limits of this tool. We are using a hacksaw to cut things that have to be measured in micrometers. We live in a 50.1% world, and polls are made for 55-45s.
×
×
  • Create New...