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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. seems to me there are two possible explanations. if something says, say biden 51 trump 44, and the final result is biden 51 trump 49, then either (1) js's theory that they nailed biden number but missed on all late deciders, or (2) they missed really bad. a 7 point lead ended up a 2 point win. it was happenstance that the bad miss on three groups (biden, trump, undecided) happened to align with the results of two groups (biden trump votes). seems to me that 2 is more likely. i just did the thatsbait.gif because he and i have discussed polls in opposite directions multiple times, and that was going to get me discussing it again.
  2. if you don't think there are fact/statistics to back up the polls missing in 2020, i've got very bad news for you.
  3. also, lulz at the 'you must really love trump' sign-off.
  4. i only respond to correct the record when obvious cheerleading pumps out disingenuous stuff. if that happens to always be your posts, well then ...
  5. thatsbait.gif. pick the worst polling year in 40 years and figure out how to say it was actually quite good,
  6. i switch my username every few years for the exact reason of mr robinson's bust, and my posts have never been 1/100th as controversial as his.
  7. I forgot Robinson was the dude that was the subject of one of my favorite tweets.
  8. allegedly online nazi-esque comments by robinson
  9. I've always loved that clip because Jerry is such a bad actor you can tell when they are doing the first shoot and he really doesn't know the joke and when they are splicing in different takes.
  10. 538 claims she is the favorite in NC. 53% chance of winning.
  11. Ol Johnny Reb, picnicking on the slopes of sunny Mount Rainier.
  12. god i hope not.
  13. you just need enough states to add up to 270 electoral votes to agree. the idea is those states all agree to pitch their ECs to whoever wins the national popular vote. doesn't matter what a single other state does outside of that group. problem is some pretty concerning constitutional issues are apparent to even a 1st year law student. i can send you mine.
  14. there's that state compact that people throw around that doesn't require a constitutional amendment.
  15. I think there's some backsliding back toward Trump with young folks because some young folks internalized what we see as crazy as normal. If you're 20 years old today, Trump was running for president before you first kissed a girl. Crazy seems normal because its the bulk of your life.
  16. comparing to clinton, i can see non-college whites being worse for harris. other than that, the other groups feel like harris would do no worse than break even from clinton's position. yoots, women, black, certainly better. maybe on college. no change on non-black minority imo. all this in an environment when (1) 'woman' isn't as big of an issue because of clinton; (2) trump is both fleshed out and lost the novelty position as a non-pol running for president.
  17. My sole mission in life: remind the very intelligent people that post here that they also occasionally say Best Since FDR!
  18. Yeah, polls were very leftward slanted in 2020. Basically the same 10 point lead in the final polls of 2020. President: general election, Missouri, 2020 AVG. Oct. 20-Nov. 2 2,926 LV SurveyMonkey Axios Biden 44% 54% Trump Trump +10 Oct. 20-Nov. 2 2,926 RV SurveyMonkey Axios Biden 44% 53% Trump Trump +9 Oct. 23-Nov. 1 487 LV Swayable Biden 43% 55% Trump More Trump +11 Oct. 22-31 1,109 LV Morning Consult Biden 43% 52% Trump Trump +9 Oct. 28-29 1,010 LV Remington Research Group Missouri Scout Biden 45% 50% Trump More Trump +5 Sept. 22-Oct. 19 3,955 LV SurveyMonkey Axios Biden 45% 52% Trump Trump +7 Sept. 22-Oct. 19 3,955 RV SurveyMonkey Axios Biden 46% 51% Trump Trump +5
  19. Patriot Polling I've never seen before, but with that name, it might as well be called Trump+5 Polling.
  20. is there more than 1 example of a dude sneaking into and dominating girls sports in the entire country of 330,000,000 people? is there even 1? is this all just hypothetical?
  21. N.B.: LBJ has clearly been discussed on this page.
  22. I would ‘well actually’ that community note. The tweet is pretty far from legally actionable imo.
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