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Duane Moore

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Duane Moore

  1. Trying to reconcile this post from Iran’s spokesman with the reports of attacks on multiple bases in Iraq.
  2. Good post. You may enjoy this deep dive on how recent events have impacted the influence of Russia and China in the region: https://mosaicmagazine.com/observation/israel-zionism/2025/06/how-the-u-s-attack-on-iran-hurts-russia-and-china
  3. From the reports out of Tehran, Israel is getting every lick they can in up to the last minute.
  4. I posted that one earlier, Amit Segal has great sources in the Israeli government so let’s hope he’s right. Very positive if true.
  5. A timely reminder that Tucker Carlson is batshit crazy:
  6. Well this should be interesting. . .
  7. Since it seems like you haven’t heard of Soleimani before, I’d recommend this long profile on him by Dexter Filkins in the Atlantic from 2013. He was an undeniably bad dude. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-commander
  8. If you’ve been paying attention, that’s all basic stuff
  9. Soleimani was the mastermind behind Iranian attacks on American soldiers in Iraq, especially in the production and distribution of EFP’s that killed and maimed thousands of Americans. His assassination crippled IRGC efforts across the region and likely saved many lives, including those of Americans, from Iranian-backed terrorism. It also disrupted the operations of Iranian proxy networks who depended on Soleimani’s experience and strategy, preventing complex, high impact attacks. The strike was made after recent provocations by Iran on American interests (2019 attack on US base in Iraq, and on American Embassy in Baghdad) and re-established deterrence against Iran from further actions. TL;DR Soleimani was their best General, responsible for thousands of American casualties, and his death weakened Iran’s ability to project power on the interests of America and its allies.
  10. Holy shit, Chris Murphy is stealing your material!
  11. Merz weighing in:
  12. What the hell kind of war for oil is this?!?!?
  13. BDA’s are still being done, but from what I’m seeing Israeli intelligence seems to think the vast majority of the enriched uranium is not destroyed but entombed at Fordow and Isfahan. That’s why they bombed the access points to Fordow this morning, to prevent Iranians getting in to remove it. This interview with Amit Segal is very encouraging. He’s saying they think the nuclear program is effectively ended and the air strikes are focused on eliminating as much of the ballistic missile capability as possible: Situation is still fluid, but if this pans out, seems like a net benefit for us in this exchange.
  14. Fingers crossed, but so far this is following the precedent of the Soleimani strike and response. We’ll see if Iran has more, but they seem to be signaling this is it:
  15. China making it clear to Iran the Straits of Hormuz need to stay open https://x.com/globaltimesnews/status/1937055449028935791?s=46
  16. Iran really making friends in the region:
  17. Of course, the Iranian Parliament has about as much authority as the average high school student council, so maybe it won’t mean much. (I filled my tank up anyway) Very possible. The flipside is that Iran spent half a trillion getting a nuclear program to the threshold only to (hopefully, we’ll see) come away with bupkus for their efforts. A lot of countries may not be willing to take that risk.
  18. Fill up those tanks! Again, have to believe Iran’s patron China isn’t going to be happy about this.
  19. Hoping this turns out to be correct. Israeli intel on Iran has been pretty solid so far: https://x.com/amitsegal/status/1936775408277471601?s=46
  20. I LOL’d at the picture of that guy. Not inspiring to be sure. The threats are real, but have been with this regime since they took over in 1979. I could spam up the thread with a list of them all but if anyone doubts it, just ask your favorite LLM for a list of all Iranian-linked attacks on US interests, at home or abroad since that time. Iran has faced very little payback for any of them across 8 administrations so we’ll see if a credible threat of force makes a difference.
  21. Gen. Caine’s sobriety in this PC is a welcome contrast to Hegseth’s cockiness.
  22. The Trump messaging to Iran of “we’re done, but also if you hit our people we’re coming back twice as hard” is the playbook they used after eliminating Soleimani in Trump’s first term. Escalate to de-escalate. Iran raised the Red Flag of Revenge, made public statements of fire and fury, then told us through back channels they would make a symbolic response to save face, and when they did, it was the end of it. We’ll see how it plays out this time.
  23. China wants to keep the oil coming through the Straits of Hormuz, they are too dependent on it right now. As for Russia, they didn’t lift a finger to preserve Assad’s regime when it was crumbling last year, they just gave him a place to live. Putin said the below in the last day or two. Countries in the region will take note of how reliable these “sponsor” nations were during crunch time for their client. I’ve heard the five voices he listened to on this were Wiles, Vance, Rubio, Ratcliffe, and Witkoff. Gabbard’s appointment was a political reward for the campaign, it’s clear he doesn’t listen to her and it’s debatable that the DNI isn’t necessary in any administration since the individual agency heads it “supervises” have full control over their fiefdoms. Hegseth is basically a recruiting tool/frontman for DOD. It is what it is, and that’s not optimal. Elbridge Colby is the real policy planner at the Pentagon (even though he was probably against this as well).
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