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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Dbeasy

  1. 5 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

    Yeah let's trace out an analogous situation with football where Tom Herman goes on a bender and gets booked for beating his wife. Todd Orlando then leads us out of the desert to the College football playoffs. There's no doubt in my mind that we'd be sitting here looking towards year 4 of Todd Orlando's tenure at UT (provided he didnt completely shit the bed in the intervening years). And yes the elite 8 out of 350+ division 1 basketball teams is analogous to the CFP with 120+ teams. 

    There is no doubt in my mind that you are completely wrong. Completely. 

  2. This morning an extremely suspicious character was in a car outside my house, and as I discovered later, I'm 99% sure he followed me to a grocery store that was more than 5 miles away. I got his license plate and would definitely like to figure out who this person is and where they live. If I could DM anyone with an ability to look it up, I'd appreciate it. I'm really concerned about safety.

  3. 5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

    Conan. Shaq. Barkley. Dick Vitale. Brooke Burke and Jules Asner. Some cooking people

     

    2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

    Old school Letterman. Johnny Carson maybe.

     

    1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

    if the definition of tv personality means a person notable for TV work (ie broadcast), but excludes celebrity status from other previous endeavors (athletics, movies, other crafts), then that list is very small to nil.

    an example would be like Jeff Probst who hosts survivors... hes known because of that TV show but not for anything else. 

    ...people like Mike Rowe maybe, or the stupid dorks from Mythbusters. 

    Interestingly, none of those names except for Conan were on the list I reviewed. Conan was the one guy that came to mind when I first thought about it, but it felt weird to call him my favorite. I rarely watched his shows. I liked them. Just never watched them. 

  4. I signed up for a website that asked me to list my favorite TV personality. Not actor or movies. TV. I sat there for several minutes and couldn’t think of anyone. So then I Googled TV personalities. 

    A list of hundred people came up. I scanned the list. The entire list. I realized there wasn’t one person on that list that I would be proud to call my favorite. Even stranger, many of the people on the list were pathetic individuals that I hated, people like Jerry Springer. Who’s your favorite TV personality? 
     

    • Haha 1
  5. 1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

    I think one of the dumbest narratives from this last season is RT didn't develop Mitchell. 

    Mitchell was practically benched his FR year and was the worst player on the court at the NBA combine. Dude was finishing -20 almost every scrimmage at the NBA combine. Mitchell went from a really bad player to at least a serviceable 5th or 6th best player on a NCAA tournament team.  

    The lack of development in the context of Mitchell is under the assumption he's a "NBA caliber" player which he simply he isn't. He has zero offensive game but can be a good college rebounder/decent defender which is exactly what RT got in year 2. 

     

    50 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

    I don't see it. No matter how much time Mitchell spends working on his shot he's still going to be a below-average shooter. 

    He was a 59.8% free throw shooter this year which is a pretty good indicator of where he's at as a shooter. He needs substantial progress to even become an average shooter. Some guys just have natural talent or they don't. 

    Will he improve as a shooter? Sure, but he's still going to be a black hole on the offensive end. 

    So, you are using his terrible lack of development as an argument for why Terry can’t be blamed for his lack of development. Interesting take. 

    • Haha 3
  6. 42 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I posted this on the inflation thread and got some pushback, but I don't really care.  At a very basic aggregate analysis, Austin residential prices have been dropping since summer 2022.  They're currently down ~ 23%, and approximately even with spring 2021 pricing.  I took the data from the Texas A&M real estate website, which seems pretty legit compared to that of Austin Board of Realtors, etc.

    image.thumb.png.b5856d7ded460c745bf7b2f489115475.png

     

     

    11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

    Here is a more recent metric. Down -14.5% from peak. I trust Freddie Mac data more than some fucking Aggy 
     

    IMG_0418.thumb.jpeg.bb697f39cb4a598806adeb0e9d0c0fc5.jpeg
     

    the above graph is most down metros. Below is the most up metros 

    IMG_0419.thumb.jpeg.3ba5deb9dacdccfc565432d6d8daa3a5.jpeg

     

    9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Understood, but at least it's not a bunch of local Realtor data, which kinda screams "conflict".

    Also, my data was for Austin proper, not Austin MSA, which has seemingly been a little less susceptible to downward price pressure.

     

    All this data looks correct.  And the ABoR data should be ok because its pulled directly from MLS data. Here is through February.  My experience is that prices were still dropping though December/January and stabilized in February/March.  If you look at JimmyJazz trend line, the current prices are just about back on the trend line.  2022 was ridiculous.

     

    image.thumb.png.220f7d1820616e60945c2cbb243a24cf.png

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  7. 1 hour ago, cmontexas said:

    As a former delivery driver/manager/whatever, I side 100% with the driver here. People open the front door and their dipshit dogs go running out. Every center in this country has a handful of drivers out of work recovering from dog bites.

    Love the quotes "He did not have a scratch or bite on him" and "He delivered the food AND THEN shot the dog" Also, "Harmon said her security camera did not record the shooting because it was inside charging". The driver didn't get bit or scratched because he shot the little fucker before he had a chance to. Keep your little family members in the house or on a leash. 

    Link

    Wtf? I clicked on that link expecting to see a video that cleared the delivery guy. Unless I missed something there was no video. So where the hell do you come off declaring him innocent? Were you there? Are you a time traveler? Git the fuck outahere with that uninformed declaration. 

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  8. I think Riley is gone after this year regardless of how his season progresses. He’s in too much of a tenable situation. 

    He knows that if the defense struggles again for the next two years, it will destroy his nfl opportunities. So he will take whatever nfl job comes his way in the offseason. And someone will hire him for sure (insert Jerry Jones joke). Or if the defense improves, a good nfl job will most certainly crop up.

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  9. Recently, I had missed a few years of the Texas OU game for various reasons before finally going again last year.

    The place was always crowded and a mess, but holy shit the misery was about 2x what I remember. The bathroom lines, the food lines, the area around Big Tex. It was terrible. I don’t remember it being that crowded, and I had been going for over 35 years before missing those few games. 

  10. The Shaka formula:

    1. Play in a so so conference. 

    2. Recruit a few top quality recruits and a few other athletes.

    3. Let them run up and down the floor jacking up 3’s.

    4. Win a few games against high seeds by getting lucky with 3 point shooting and leveraging the athletic ability of  the team.

    5. Beat up on lesser programs in a so so conference  

    6. Gain a decent tournament seed as a result of 4 and 5  

    7. Beat the really low seeds. Lose as soon as you run into good coaching, or your 3 pt luck runs out  

    8. Rinse repeat  

     

     

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  11. The Boeing situation and this thread are fascinating to me. The comments about not putting the MBA’s in charge of engineering or of airplane businesses are not that crazy. I have first hand experience.

    I have an engineering degree and worked as an engineer in the aerospace industry for several years. But then i got an MBA and ran companies for several years. So I’ve lived on both sides of the fence. 

    The issue is that the pure engineer who thinks solely like an engineer makes a terrible business leader. They think too linearly in black or white.

    But similarly a pure business leader with no product development expertise is often an absolute idiot, making dumb decisions about product quality, safety, timelines, costs, etc.  

    You have to be able to meld those two mindsets together to make optimal decisions. But often leaders with experience in both areas still screw up because they can’t effectively optimize their thinking. It took me a long time to really get better at ensuring businesses optimally mixed safety, quality, profitability, etc. But even then, if you report to people that don’t understand it, they will force you down the path of bad decisions.  A bad Board of Directors can be just as responsible for the failures.

    In my opinion there have been enough serious problems at Boeing that they need to redo the Board as well.

     

     

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    • Like 1
  12. 21 minutes ago, CashMcCoy said:

    https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft


    Shocking to read Mitchell picked 45th here. Would love to see it even though I’m doubtful. I don’t know how credible The Ringer’s mocks usually are, but they sure do look nice.

    IMG_5985.thumb.jpeg.03dd6d224fafadf079bd5056e0ffd89e.jpeg

    As a rabid Spurs fan I would love this pick. He has the athleticism, attitude, and potential that the Spurs could leverage while fixing his shooting and lack of impact. I’ve seen the Spurs fix the shot of tons of players. This would be great for Mitchell. 

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  13. We are definitely better off at the position than we’ve been in a long time. I don’t mean to sound like I’m complaining about the position. I’m pretty happy with where they are at DE. And yes I’m sure a few of those guys will get drafted or a look in the nfl. 

    I just don’t think any but potentially Simmons are likely to be an Ossai, or a multi-year player. Of course I’ve been unenthusiastic about Burke since the beginning and I’ve been proven spectacularly wrong there. Let’s hope he keeps getting better and I’m wrong about all of them. 

  14. Of all those 

    12 hours ago, 6th Street said:

    Will be interesting to see the rotation at DE between Burke, Sorrell, Moore, Finkley, Simmons, Vasek, Tapp, Akana, and Walton. 

    It’s a lot of good to very good guys, but I think the only strong NFL prospect is Simmons, imo. Size, strength, speed, agility needed to stick in the nfl. 
     

     

     

     

     

     

    • Haha 1
  15. What’s the real story behind this Hagerty bill banning federal money to be used to fly illegal immigrants to the US? The right wing propaganda machine is making a big deal out of all Democrats voting against it last Friday. 

  16. It's nice to finally see a few folks start to voice their concerns about Pierce. I've been on that island for awhile now. I get it, though. He's done just well enough so that if you squint and rationalize, you can convince yourself that he's the right coach for Texas. I've done my share of squinting over the years, even staying on the Charlie Strong "let's wait and see" bandwagon too long.  That "let's wait and see" approach can sustain you for 2-3 seasons. I freely admit that based upon the world series appearances it seems like I'm jumping the gun on Pierce. But, I've seen enough little things over the last several years to believe Texas could do better. I also don't believe a mid-season firing is warranted, obviously.  Giving him next year as well seems appropriate, on paper.  But if you're CDC, you have to have received enough information about his coaching to make a call after this year if you do believe he's the wrong guy.

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