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UTGrad98

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Everything posted by UTGrad98

  1. For those of you who like to day trade on the way down, the first truly big resistance points are 515ish for the fibonacci retracement of the 565 high and 351 low of the SPY and 508ish for the 10% correction. The initial 10% correction bounce in 2022 was one of the biggest just reviewing the notes I made. The initial 20% drop also had a big bounce back in 2022. The last 3 recessions had an average of a 41% drop. The more the merrier as far as I'm concerned as i will be trading at these levels like I always do.
  2. This is just my opinion but I think the word 'stocks' or stock market is your biggest buzz word that would drive eyes and traffic and should be in the title somehow. I'm partial to 'Stocks and Business- let your nutz hang' but that's just me. You could go a step further and do something more youthful and say 'Stocks/Business/Crypto' for the young kids.
  3. I think they are going to be late. Last 2 days have been blood baths with the data that has come in. Sahm rule triggered. Vix north of 20. Talk of a 50 basis point cut in Sept now. I remember an article I read 6 months or so ago which said when the fed starts cutting rates is when you should feel nervous not before. That will be especially true if they feel they are behind and have to cut 50 basis points for their first cut. It will basically be admitting a mistake.
  4. Here comes.your traffic...
  5. I'm a pharmacist so in regards to finding part time work it's much easier for me due to how my profession is. The only other type of profession I have a handle on is finance which is what my wife does and she says she will consult part time once she is ready. When I read about others who transition into part time work not in their field of study, they look for something that has part time benefits and low stress. One insurance option for us if neither can find work with benefits is ACA. We are a family of 3 with my wife and i both 49 years old and if you look at the ACA subsidy chart, we need to make less than 97k a year and we will receive a subsidy on our medical insurance. I think it comes out to $600ish a month as ACA states they can't charge you more than 7.8% or something close to that of your adjusted gross income per year for insurance. That is for the silver plan. ACA also works for us because with my wife being from Mexico she can navigate their health system so we have access to that as well which drastically reduces our cost burden.
  6. 1. I usually work Wed and Thurs each week at 8 hours/shift. Usually once a month I only work once that week. And 2 or 3 times in this past year I took 2 weeks off for various vacations. I just got back from a 10 day trip to Mexico last week. 2. I prefer not to answer what our net worth is although I will say I rarely include my home equity as I don't place as much value in that because you have to live somewhere. I will say I went part time right when the math worked out to where a 5-6% average return / dividends meant we would never have to touch our principal amount in savings/401k and that we could live off only the returns. We are now 13% higher than that minimal amount now and that will continue to grow for at least the next 4-5 years which is why I think I wanted too long to do this.
  7. Imma wants some more discussion on the business board so I figure Id give everyone an update on my (sort of) FIRE status since it will be 1 year on Aug 12th since I quit full time work and went down to about 6-7 shifts per month. So far, so good. In fact, I still think I work too much. I rarely if ever get bored when I am off and I just feel so much less stressed. Sunday nights have been an absolute treat. I dont dread Mondays anymore. Sports are much more enjoyable, especially Sunday and Monday night football. Ive been working out almost daily since I stopped full time work and the video game my brother and I and best friend are creating is coming along (somewhat nicely). Financially, we increased our nest egg about 13% since August 2023. About 10% due to gains in the market and 3% in terms of money we put in. And this is with us being quite conservative in our stock/MM allocation. In fact, I am starting to believe I waited 1 or 2 years too long to make this move. Issues that I have overcome have been 1. not saving/putting nearly the same amount of money in Vanguard as I used to. I save a fraction of what I did BUT I have allowed myself to spend more on wants and other more frivolous things like a nice $1k gaming laptop that I never would have bought before. That was a mental hurdle I had to jump over. And 2. my wife getting used to me being home more. At first she kept questioning when I would go back to full time, but now she actually is put off when I go in to work because of all the stuff I do when Im home to help her out (groceries, taking/picking up up our kid from school, cleaning, general errands etc). I keep telling her she needs to go part time as well but she isnt there yet. She is getting closer however. All she needs is a job that makes her 25k a year as that is her yearly part of our household expenses. She absolutely can consult part time but whatever. I dont push too hard. My next change will be working less than I do now ( going down to 1 shift a week) while still increasing our nest egg each year, albeit much more gradual, The mental hurdle here is I will begin to actually take out a small amount of funds yearly. So far I have estimated that once I go down to 1 shift weekly, I will need to take about 7-8k a year to supplement. That is going to be a tough one for me and it is still most likely 2 years away before I make that move. All in all, no regrets what so ever. Well, I know now I waited too long to do this so that is my only regret. I hope some of you jump in soon. The water is nice and warm. Life is too short not to.
  8. My big question is did the fed wait 1 meeting too long to lower rates. Will be curious to see if they say in hind site, they should have started lowering rates in July vs Sept. More of the economy is starting to show cracks and its looking like investors have overshot the AI craze. Yearly bottoms the past 2 years have been in October. Curious if it will be this year as well.
  9. This is one of the forums I visit (almost) daily. I enjoy reading the content here and Ive learned a lot in terms of other peoples' questions and views they have on money management. 2020-2023 were all pretty crazy in terms of global shocks and I think drove a lot of the traffic here on the business board. 2024 so far has been pretty tame. I think most everyone has been lulled by the market this year with not much else happening that would affect it. Rates have not changed. Not much is new. It's probably the main reason why my personal engagement on this particular board has dropped.
  10. Dallas Austin
  11. I'm excited to vote this year because... 1. I prefer we keep our democracy. 2. I prefer a woman have control over her own body 3. In regards to social security, Medicare, and our deficit, I prefer we tax the ultra wealthy to help keep those programs afloat/control the deficit rather than cut benefits. (Although managing the deficit will require both increasing taxes and cutting spending) 4. I prefer to help the Republicans see they need to change their platform and ideology in order to have any hopes of winning another election rather than having trump win and reinforce their current platform of overt fascism. I prefer a 2 party system where I have to put thought into who I will vote for in any given election.
  12. It will come down to whether the military will follow orders from a Democrat president in January 2025. If it gets to that point, that is. Until then everything else is just grandstanding and empty threats and I'm not super worried about an actual civil war. If the schisms in the military are worse than what most would believe, then my family's move to mexico will have to be moved up a couple years.
  13. If you're gonna cleanse our race, close our borders, you gotta have enough poors to do the shitty jobs. Isn't that the end game?
  14. Woke up this morning thinking this really is the last stand election for both parties. The last breath of hatred bigotry and fascism vs a black woman running for president. Project 2025 feels like the fascists last non violent attempt for control. By contrast, whether or not it's by choice, this is the year the democrats put up a black woman to see if we are far enough along in this country to not only elect our first woman president, but also throwing in she is black too. It's like increasing the difficulty level on your favorite video game playing with a hardcore character. I hope we are there.
  15. I've been wondering about the foundation for this behavior for years. I've asked some of my black female friends and I couldn't get a firm answer. Is it the male dominance trump puts out that resonates with them? Male Hispanics, especially Cuban males also.have been said to be drawn to this way of thinking.....I guess even at the expense of their right to vote ?
  16. So Shapiro if the dems are nervous about their chances and cooper if they feel emboldened, as they would feel Pennsylvania looks safe. Or would it be the other way around?
  17. The end is going to be more interesting than I thought.
  18. Good for Joe. You served your country as best as you could do and I commend that. A servant of the people till the end.
  19. Looking at historical daily temps for dfw flower mound, it seems the absolute hottest days of the year are the first few days in August. Then average highs and lows start to decrease. The average highs/lows on August 1st are 98/77 and by the end of the month are 93/72. This is on the weather underground almanac.
  20. Do you think biden has thought what his legacy would be if he runs and loses to trump with even 10% of project 2025 making it into legislation?
  21. I've always thought when people said we are in a simulation, that they were just being funny. Seemed too far fetched. Now I believe there is a non zero chance we are a must see tv show for a highly advanced alien race who has had us in some type of matrix/Truman show since the 50s. Ratings were down in 2019 so here we are.
  22. I read this as " young people are going to vote this time, really."
  23. Stupid list is stupid.
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