-
Posts
10404 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
26
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Store
Downloads
Recruiting - 2020
2019-2020 Football Season
Football
Entertainment
Sports
News and Business
Cloak Room
Transfer Portal
Recruiting
Events
Posts posted by 956 Worldwide
-
-
12 minutes ago, TejanoAtUT said:
There has been discussion and speculation as to Putin's actual power over the Russian oligarchs and the country at large. Is this video meant to be a choreographed demonstration for the Russian public of Putin's control over his government, or is it meant more as a message meant to get any remaining doubtful internal government/oligarch elements in line with him?
Western commentators and pundits have mentioned that Putin's speech from yesterday shows he came off as unhinged, at least in comparison to some of his previous remarks and actions. But is that really surprising to the experts that have been paying attention? I suppose what I'm really asking is, do Western governments believe Putin might have gone off the deep end for real?I don't think that Putin is unhinged or losing it, any more than any person in his position would begin to develop a (rational, to him) conspiratorial and dark view of the world. He is also confined to an information bubble of sorts.
I don't believe very much in the theory of "Putin is going to lose his grip on power or suffer a big public protest" as he's been extremely effective at consolidating that power and at removing any potential alternative center of gravity before it is created. By and large, most Russians still support Putin. Nevertheless, he undoubtedly obsesses over things like potential coups and appears to believe that the United States is trying to destabilize his regime. This particular show was not a demonstration of control over his government or to get people in line who had doubts. He knows he has decided to do something extremely illegal that will provoke consequences, and that those might bring more consequences he cannot see yet. He has effectively decapitated everyone in that room from trying to claim later that they were against the idea or that they didn't fully support him. I don't think any of them will end up in the Hague-- but it does remove them from consideration as part of any opposition that might possibly emerge if this goes badly for Russia.
-
3
-
-
I want to share this remarkable video clip of Putin taking a terrified looking Sergei Naryshkin, head of the SVR, across the coals. I referred to the exchange upthread but it’s worth watching. Naryshkin stammers and tries to avoid saying directly “I support the recognition of independence…” Putin gets exasperated, tells him to “speak directly, Sergei”. Of note, in his televised meetings earlier with Lavrov and Shoigu, he spoke politely and made sure to use the name and patronymic formulation— as you would expect a dignified Russian leader to do in a “show debate.”
This is more like “spit it out, Sergei!” Chiding a terrified student on his exams.
-
5
-
-
The Russian Duma will have a session today to talk about the implementation of these treaties. Usually Duma members are not tops on the list of people who get the early readout on what Putin wants to do. Here is something to watch-- does Russia recognize the DPR/LPR within the borders currently controlled by the "separatists" or do they recognize the territory CLAIMED by the separatists. The self-styled republics claim a bunch of stuff beyond the Line of Contact and if Russia moves to enforce that claim-- there is your shooting war.
Some leaks on the Twitters saying Austrian press believes that the EU sanctions package will include NS2. I will be surprised, but heartened if that is the case. But it does make me wonder what the big "war" package will look like.
-
4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Slovak Republic's President chimes in.
Finland as well
We need more Zuzi Caputovas and Sanna Marins here. I’d have voted for Zuzi happily.
All of Europe’s gonna trash Russia for this. The question is what bite any sanctions will have. I actually don’t favor unleas8ng the big package now, as then you’ve fired your bullets and nothing left to use to try and make any kinetic action less impactful.
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:
Doesn’t really fit Putin’s style though. I think it’s more to conform to the public that he reviewed all information from each of his departments before deciding to defend Russian territory.
This, to me is the key exchange. Translation— I want to hear you say this out loud. Not “I’ll support your decision, Mr. President.” No one is “just following orders.”
Quote
At one point, Sergei Naryshkin, the powerful foreign intelligence chief, suggested using the threat of recognition as a tool to compel Ukraine to conclude peace on Moscow’s terms. Putin then told him: “Are you proposing starting the negotiation process, or recognise the republics’ sovereignty? Speak clearly!” Naryshkin began to stutter. “I will support the decision to recognise — ” Putin cut him off. “I will support or I support? Speak clearly, Sergei!” A visibly flustered Naryshkin mumbled that he supported incorporating the separatist territories into Russia. “That’s not what we’re discussing!” Putin said. “We’re talking about whether to recognise their independence or not.” Naryshkin meekly assented.-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
There’s no one waiting in the wings to say “I ain’t in this.” We’re all getting sanctioned, we’re all agreeing, we’re all in this together. There will be no one who can credibly tell the Russian people they weren’t on board if this goes badly.
-
2
-
-
6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Meanwhile, Baltics are sending officials to Kyiv
The Balts are savages. No shit, the world is lucky that they’re so small.
-
1
-
-
I do not see Russian “peacekeepers” stopping at the LOC. Not recognizing LPR/DPR was a piece of leverage that Putin had. He could twist and prod for Ukraine to implement Minsk on unfavorable terms. Recognizing these territories and stopping means he gives up leverage and is stuck with something he doesn’t want (namely— Luhansk and Donetsk).
-
1
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:
Absolutely.
Honesty, it doesn't seem like Kiev had full control of these areas for quite some time. Years? They can take much of the blame for not exercising control of their own country. I realize this is easier said than done with Russia helping the separatists but you got to take care of your own problems.
Russia wasn’t helping the separatists, Russia was the separatists. Seriously, they had regular units cross the borders with their patches off and their heavy artillery turned the tide. After that it’s been forced peace talks.
-
6
-
-
30 minutes ago, slorch said:
Committee of Soldiers Mothers on Facebook?
Now that sounds foreboding.
It’s a pretty old and respected organization in Russia— it was started in the 1990s to track and combat human rights violations in the Russian military, mostly conscripts drafted to fight the Chechen War. Since then it’s been slapped with the “foreign agent” designation and lots of activities restricted.
-
1
-
-
Has Putin trolled Macron? Earlier the French President announced a Biden-Putin summit “in principle.” Today a Kremlin spokesperson said its “possible but premature to discuss” and added that there was a lot of concern about tensions in Donbas. Blinken-Lavrov set to meet this week on Wednesday but only if there isn’t an invasion.
On the ground— deploying 150,000 men is hard. Also notable, apparently there are both contract soldiers and conscripts in advance positions.
-
Something interesting from Maria Zacharova, Putin’s leggy and sassy foreign affairs spokesperson. After German chancellor Scholz lambasted claims of a genocide in Donbas, she says that Russia is sending evidence of mass graves to his office and that “Washington” already has it. She also claims that “publishing this would not be allowed on any platform” and that “even those who have seen everything will not be able to look at this.”
Translation : You fuckers already called this out and now we can’t use it, so we’ll just say we have it.
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Also, while we are discoursing, I want to pause and mention how disgusting it is that Russia is herding thousands of Donbas civilians into tents as part of a propaganda effort to create a “Ukrainian invasion threat” that in no way exists. It really is an absolutely criminal exploitation of non-combatants.
Even if by some miracle the kinetic part of this gets waved off, if you’re a person who was rolling your eyes at Western warnings of false flags and provocations— you can have a fucking seat. It’s all almost exactly as warned and it’s absolutely trash behavior. Another reason not to buy the “they’re both the same.”
-
7
-
3
-
1
-
1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:
Probably going to have some sort of total blackout soon.
The z is probably an IFF designation. Pretty low tech but useful.
Yeah. That has been a huge problem with our intelligence. Electronic eavesdropping and such hubris that we don't think HUMInt is needed anymore.
As some of the OSINT geeks I follow have pointed out, the “Z” markers are kind of haphazard and look like what you’d get if you told soldiers “paint a Z” without more context. Could be as simple as “this vehicle has been prepped and inspected and is ready to go/operational.”
Also images of tanks with slat armor (not fitted for drills- fitted if you expect to be fired on) and units breaking down into smaller groups under forest cover, closer to the border.
-
52 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:
One thing that I can't wrap my mind around though is how he could actually believe that a puppet could be installed. To be clear, I agree with you that he does view this as a possible option eventually, so what I am trying to say is that I can't understand how he believes that.
It just seems so far-fetched to actually implement. Outside of certain pockets in the East, the anti-Russian sentiment galvanized so significantly post-2014, and the place is so awash in weapons of all types, that it would be almost impossible to hold. And on top of that, what security apparatus is he expecting a Kremlin-installed puppet be able to leverage to keep power? Relying on Russian troops to maintain order in the city would be a bloodbath for them. Pulling that in Kiev could make Grozny look like a day at the park for those trying to hold it against the will of the population. So how would he approach that? Surely he can’t think that he can turn the existing Ukrainian security apparatus in his favor. And his pro-Russian elements in the East couldn't just be picked up and moved to Kiev to form some State Security Service, so he couldn’t rely on using them.
So the only way he could do that is exactly as you suggested: by brutal and deep suppression of dissent beforehand, which would mean that he truly has decided to completely abandon any attempt to remain connected economically to Europe, as that would eliminate the ability for fence-sitters in western europe to remain sidelined to any degree. But that level of violent suppression would start to resemble genocide given how many would be rounded up/killed, which would be seen as a completely different thing than just carnage in the Donbass/East. He would essentially be making a decision that Europe is completely written off as the more pacifist countries could no longer push for any type of compromise. This self-inflicted complete-and-total break with Europe would then put him completely dependent on Beijing, which Russia has never wanted, but would now be their only hope. If he tries to pull this, IMO it would truly be one of the worst geo-political plays of all time.
I think the break has been decided upon. There would probably be mass arrests but more than that an encouragement to leave the country for anyone who wasn’t willing to get on board with the new political order. And likely some form of formal Russian presence on the ground. Shades of Czechoslovakia in 1968 complete with pleas from political leadership not to resist “for the sake of peace.” And there’d be a time gap to allow for some sort of pretend democratic process to be implemented to get someone else in place. Putin would view it as fair play for what happened to Yanukovych.
Today the Belarus defense minister announced that drills will continue indefinitely due to tensions in Donbas. I think it’s fair to assess whether Belarus is a sovereign country anymore. It’s worth noting that Lukashenka had made serious overtures to the West after 2014 made him ask if he could trust Russia. Only mass, genuine democratic protests made him flee back to Putin as the only man that really got him. There are now 30,000 some odd Russian troops and heavy metal in Belarus that aren’t going anywhere. Lukashenka’s presence at Grom drills was not necessarily a sign of trust and respect.
-
1
-
-
Grew up swimming/surfing/now mostly SUP surfing on SPI and it’s still what I do every day I can when back home. All the videos of how close we really are to sharks from drones/ airplanes/etc make me feel better and not worse. When you think of how many people and hours we spend next to each other without shit happening, you realize that for the most part they DNGAF about us.
One of my favorite photos from a morning on the Laguna Madre side on my board is not a shark but a bottlenose. Not gonna lie— a bit unsettling. They are bigger than they look and when you can’t track where they are under you, you realize they could fuck up your world if they got a mind to. Still not an experience I’d trade for the world.
-
3
-
3
-
-
13 minutes ago, TejanoAtUT said:
Once again, thanks for all the great info and insight you, Shady Ray, and several others have shared on this thread.
As y'all have mentioned a few times up-thread, as if on queue, Russian military activity & propaganda seems to be ramping up just as the Winter Olympics are winding down. A few weeks ago it felt like there might be a chance Putin might be bluffing with the threat of military action to force some sort of concession or diplomatic agreement from Ukraine and Western governments. But now, I can't help but feel like Putin and Russia are more akin to a hurricane churning in the Gulf on a path to landfall, rather than an entity that can be reasoned with through diplomacy.
Personal feelings aside, what diplomatic options are realistically left on the table? It seems like everyone's positions are well staked out and no one is going to budge now.I’m just a message board asshole but my read is that Putin has staked out some maximalist demands publicly and is facing the choice of not getting his demands met and backing down, or not getting them met and putting a hurt on Ukraine a la Kramer. I also think that Putin has determined that a Western leaning, non-vassal Kyiv is a core security threat. To completely avoid any more Russian invasion, including the minimalist “peacekeepers to Donbas” scenario, I think Putin wants:
- Immediate implementation of Minsk as Russia/LPR/DPR interprets Minsk.
- A halt to all meaningful western support to Kyiv including removing Western arms that have been donated and a halt to any financial support.
These two would mean the fall of Zelenskyy and installation of a puppet in short order. Russia would demand the West stay out as broad suppression of dissent is carried out. Basically- not the Finlandization of Ukraine but the Belarusization.
In addition to that, I think he really wants his maximalist demands met:
- Signed, sealed, delivered “NATO will never expand”
- Timetable to withdraw any non-local NATO infrastructure in the post 1997 states
Those are the big ones. They are non-starters. By making these demands public Putin upped the diplomatic ante and has made it hard to climb back down.
-
2
-
1
-
-
Let’s catch up on where things stand:
- Lots of LPR/DPR residents herded into tent cities. Russian state media reporting Ukrainian assaults on LPR/DPR forces and alleged terror attacks on LOR/DPR buildings.
- Disinformation spiking on Ukraine across the Kremlin information ecosystem, nearly all about Ukrainian aggression
- Unnamed sources claim that Biden was so confident because of intercepted communications to proceed with an attack. Note- in 2014 Putin used motorcycle couriers to avoid exactly this
- More movements of military equipment into battle order, lots of units popping up with a “Z” marker. Z is not a letter in Russian. Task force marker?
- Reports from Belarus locals saying Russian troops are drunk, undisciplined, living in tents in the woods and selling diesel and other equipment. Lots of tensions between locals and non-Slav Russian troops (Caucasians, Tatars, etc.). A reminder that Russia has maybe 25k superbly trained and disciplined Spetznatz and the rest is questionable as seen in Georgian war. Harder to keep them in the field than you think. Russian heavy equipment is also fucking up Belarus roads and other transport infrastructure.- Grom strategic exercises underway and yesterday was hypersonic and ICBM testing.
- More ceasefire violations along the LOC than in years, mostly Russian. Clearly provocations.
-
5
-
2
-
-
South Padre Island- Nostalgia, unplugged vibe, food, it’s home. Not really objectively the best but for me the best.
San Antonio- My favorite big city in Texas
Santa Fe, NM
NYC— If you’re gonna do the city, do the city
Guadalupe National Park— Again, more nostalgia, not the most spectacular park. I like that it is underdeveloped and less trafficked.
-
3 hours ago, Nicole44 said:
Ok I lied! Go Finland! What is the logo on their hockey jersey???
Fuck yes, Finland beat the Russia but not Russia team.
The logo is a stylized version of Finland’s coat of arms. Great Olympics for little but hockey mad nations as Slovakia wins bronze. Cool fact— the lion is trampling a Russian saber.
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
-
Hey, who said anything about Russian troops leaving Belarus after an exercise. Seems you were hearing what you wanted to hear:
-
1
-
-
I thought we are supposed to be able to run over protesters who block the road but now I’m finding out we can’t just take their money?
-
5
-
3
-
-
I mentioned this upthread and I think it went overlooked. Russia has launched its Grom (Thunder) 2022 strategic exercises that includes ballistic and hypersonic missile tests and puts Russia’s strategic arsenal on high alert. Putin invited Lukashenka to watch at the Kremlin control room. The signal here is clear— NATO can FAFO if they try to stop anything in Ukraine. We are into a seriously critical phase of this crisis.
max seddon (@maxseddon) Tweeted:
Here's Putin and Lukashenko, who he brought along for the ride, observing the nuclear drills in the Kremlin while looking at the Big Board. Table watch: medium-sized. https://t.co/AqXzGJ5tFw-
1
-
-
18 minutes ago, TejanoAtUT said:
Seems like another worrying sign that the Russian plan continues to roll on.
"Russian-appointed of head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk “People's Republic,” Denis Pushilin, announced a general mobilization in the occupied territory. Also seeing reports from Donetsk that men of military age aren’t being allowed to leave the area."Here is more worrying- Russia claiming a Ukrainian shell landed in Russia.
Русский корабль - иди нахуй
in Daily Texan
Posted
The Duma session to ratify the "Treaties of Friendship" is underway. There are joint sessions going on in Luhansk/Donetsk and the Luhansk "parliament" has called on Ukrainians to voluntarily leave the parts of LPR that are claimed beyond the line of contact. Speaking at the committee, Lavrov says that Russia will guarantee the security of the new republics. The draft treaty offers lots of wiggle room to allow Russia to intervene. Also regular updates of "Ukrainian saboteur" bomb blasts and attacks. It seems this is tilting towards recognition of LPR/DPR beyond the currently held territory.