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Posts posted by 956 Worldwide
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12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:
hahaha, one of the best pictures I took was in 1996 in Bosnia at a bridge crossing. Like we have deer crossing signs here there it was Tank crossing. I have seen what M-1's and Leopards can do to roads. It is not nice. There is a reason we pay for twice the gas and carry them on trucks.
I think he goes in, limited, and thus forces concessions. Creates his land bridge to the Crimea. Perhaps tries to landlocked the Ukraine, but won't storm Kiev (have we agreed on the spelling?? Creates a smaller adversary, gains points at home for uniting the Russian People, and shows the people that the military does listen, is powerful and loyal to him.
Agree this strengthens NATO, but does Vlad give a fuck? I read somewhere he sees Russia like Catherine did. His fiefdom to grow and expand. The issue is if he pulls this off he goes for the Baltic States and they are NATO.
Kyiv, Kyiv, Kyiv! Don’t bring that Russian spelling in here, Ivan!
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Just now, InkaUtexas said:
Shit can be moved as tactics change. The big one for me is the movement of helicopters and light bombers into the southern region and Crimea. That takes forward placement of fuel, supplies and support personnel. I know we got some pilots on her so they can chime in better than me, but maintenance on a MI-8 requires people.
Also, these are not areas within the exercise AOR so makes no sense.
Also more field hospitals arriving to Belgorod. Whitewashed camo appearing on the units getting moved closer to Ukraine. Lots of units getting moved to staging areas closer to the order and placed into battle order.
Scholz is arriving as all signs point to more escalation and not less. It’s worth remembering that the Soviets negotiated with Budapest as the tanks rolled in. If Putin has decided to go to war, it’s not like the rupture with the West is going to be any worse just because he kept going through the motions till the last minute.
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2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
why are we tweeting what we’re doing and where we’re going?The first and primary mission of any embassy is the protection and assistance of U.S. citizens. Emergency consular staff and a few unit heads are always the last to pull out. The government has been telling Americans to gtfo for a while. The latest messaging tells Americans still in Ukraine to get themselves to Lviv if they need emergency services like a new passport, passport for a kid, consular birth record, etc. before they hightail it out.
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If the information was shared to try and influence Russian decision making, and the behavior goes the way we want it to, that’s a success and not a failure.
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For those looking for Twitter follows--- Kofman at the Center for Naval Analysis is a good follow:
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53 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
The Wagner Group does not do well against US Marines and US Army Special Forces. And the US Air Force.
I don't believe the Wagner Group exists, as an actual private military corporation with paid mercenaries. Think about Putin--- does anyone believe he would allow a highly trained private military force to be created and exist on the territory of the Russian Federation? I think the Wagner Group is simply an arm of the Ministry of Defense, which is fully answerable to state structures. Prigozhin is likely getting some sort of a cut for serving as the "contractor" for them, but he has no operational control. The existence of the group allows for deniability and distance, as well as for the group to engage in things that even the Russia military would not do publicly. They are only mercenaries in the sense that the Kremlin doesn't admit funding them, but the funding, training, orders, and equipment all come from Russian state coffers.
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So Putin had meetings with DefMin Shoigu and ForMin Lavrov today. Shoigu told him that some drills had ended and more were to end soon. Lavrov told him that he "still sees a chance" to reach consensus with the west and "urged" a continued diplomatic path. There is some reason to be optimistic that Putin is going to decide to climb down.
There is another reading-- and it's linked with the Donbas/Luhansk question above. Putin can now claim to have wanted to take the path of reason and dialogue with the West but-- then those perfidious Ukrainians might overreact, leaving him no choice. I think the OSCE meeting, if Russia takes it, will be telling.
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A Duma committee has pushed two drafts resolutions through— both urging Putin to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. One bill (Communists) calls for immediate recognition and the second (United Russia) calls for Putin to first consult with his Foreign and Defense Ministry. The whole Duma will meet tomorrow to consider both.
My guess- regardless of which passes- is that this will be the spark for a “provocation”, allegedly from Ukraine, that triggers the war plans.
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Checked to see what I was missing by sticking to the DT thread. Good to know that Trump would stop this all with VMI cadets, great insights.
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It require a 2/3 vote in parliament to amend, and it would be interesting to see where they'd get that. I am also not at all sure Russia would be satisfied, because a future government could change its mind. And NATO would still be unlikely to say "we accept this decision once and forever," the same way the door is always open to Finns or Swedes.
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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:
The idea is that NATO has never stated that a country couldn’t become a member. Ukraine would be the first.
There’s also the fact that Russia pinky promised in 1994 to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. In exchange, Ukraine gives up a security guarantee of nuclear weapons. We see how that worked out, why would we think that by giving up an even weaker security guarantee (maybe, one day NATO) that it would forestall more aggression?
Caving on this point might end the current crisis sort of, but my reading of Putin’s intents is that further aggression against Ukraine in inevitable regardless of what the Alliance does and the only change of course would happen via a sea change inside of Russia itself.
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6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:
Could be, but the OSCE is toothless. I worked alongside them in Bosnia after Dayton and the Serbs would just laugh at them. And that was with 60K+ NATO Troops running around the country. Putin knows the OSCE is BS and won't care what they say. I still think he goes in just to show other nations he can and will. Think Estonia. The only way he backs off is if internal fears/pressure emerge. I don't see that happening.
One thing going to the discussion about other areas kicking off is I would watch the Caucus closely. Dagestanis have a long memory and would love to see them rise up, even if they are crazy bastages. Another concern is the rise of the Slavic image in the balkans. Lot of shit is going on in Bosnia that no one is paying attention too. Serbs marching across their areas knowing the EU/NATO won't do shit would be a possible development. We talk about the Ukraine, but this would have a ripple impact across many areas as noted above. Guess I am getting a 12 pack tonight and busting out my laminated world map. Anyone up for a game of Risk?
Oh, OSCE statements are toothless and as a group it’s all just jaw-jaw. But it is a venue where Russia likes to play and Ukraine has offered them a chance to go there and sling barbs and grievances instead of rockets. Again, it’s an off-ramp they could take and a forum where they could even wring some symbolic concessions out of Ukraine vis-a-vis the “separatist” regions to justify the climb down.
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For those who asked how Putin can climb down, this OSCE meeting would be a way. Russia COULD show up, announce that everyone is being nervous nellies and explain the exercises and how long they will go on. Russia could show up, justify their presence by pointing to alleged Ukrainian military buildups near Donbas, and ask for Ukraine to explain themselves and start talks on a way to “build confidence” on both sides(revisit Minsk, timetable to draw down on both sides, etc.) and effectively punt and open the door to climb off the ledge. Russia could also do a combination of those things. I’m not super optimistic, but invoking this mechanism is a very much Ukraine trying to get Russia to push on a slightly cracked door.
One other thing to note about this whole crisis— most of Russia’s demands are all directed at the U.S. and NATO and all of his coercion and threats are at Ukraine. And on all these calls and meetings, there hasn’t been an explicit LINKAGE between NATO and U.S. actions and threats to Ukraine, but there hasn’t been an explicit de-linkage on their side either.
And that’s a bad sign because diplomats love to explicitly say things are not linked. Maybe the most favored expression in negotiations. It’s a little bit of diplomatic kayfabe to allow for face saving and gracious exits. The more things are explicitly delinked the more they are linked silently. Everyone knows good and well that they are linked BUT— you still have a gracious way to say “we agreed on these separate issues, we don’t agree on this last issue. But we will keep working on that while moving ahead with what we can agree on— they don’t depend on each other, and there’s no reason to let these unrelated issues trip us up.”
The fact that Russia won’t delink massive security architecture overhauls to its buildup near Ukraine, explicitly and often, is a terrible sign.
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So, back to the diplomatic front for a bit here. Kyiv recently submitted a request via an OSCE confidence building and risk management mechanism for Russia to explain its military build up. Whatever Russia told them, it didn’t satisfy them. They have joined with Latvia and Lithuania to call for an emergency OSCE meeting for both Russia and Belarus to explain the military buildup. (Lukashenka told the Balts that the “exercise” is too small to trigger the OSCE requirement to respond). This emergency meeting request should be understood as a last ditch effort to get Putin to commit not to invade.
Second— I will spoiler the longcat post but the readout from the Russian foreign ministry on Putin’s POTUS call should be read in its entirety, closely. The Russians put out long readouts.
- They use scare quotes and words like “hysteria” around talk of attack or invasion. A quick reader will come away thinking Russia denied the possibility. A careful reader will note what is missing: “Our President assured President Biden that an invasion of/attack on Ukraine is not under consideration.”
- Lots of talk about concerns that Ukraine will escalate and dissatisfaction with the security architecture in Europe.
Quote🎙 #Briefing by Aide to the President Yury Ushakov following a telephone conversation between Vladimir #Putin and Joseph #Biden 🇷🇺📞🇺🇸
Yury #Ushakov briefed media representatives on the telephone conversation between President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of the United States Joseph Biden.
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💬 Aide to the President Yury Ushakov: Good evening!
A telephone conversation between the President of the #RussianFederation and the President of the #UnitedStates has just concluded. It lasted for just over an hour. The call was as a follow-up of sorts on the December 7 videoconference talks between Russia and the United States, and the December 30 telephone conversation. It was during those conversations that the two leaders began discussing one of the most important issues on the current agenda, namely long-term legally binding security guarantees for the Russian Federation.
Today’s conversation was held, as everyone knows, against the backdrop of an unprecedented push by #US official to whip up hysteria over the allegedly imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Incidentally, in requesting that the telephone conversation be held today, instead of on Monday as it was previously scheduled, the US cited the likelihood of this catastrophic scenario.
Similar requests for urgent conversations have been filed by other members of the Biden administration, who talked over the phone with many of their Russian colleagues yesterday and today. It was thus a coordinated effort to pump out hysteria about the “invasion,” which is now at its height.
Coming back to the conversation between the presidents of #Russia and the United States, it can be said that the tone was rather balanced and business-like. President Biden even talked about the experience of his predecessors who made every effort during the Cold War to avoid the catastrophe of a serious military conflict between our two nations.
He said that our two great nations were still rivals but that we must take every effort to maintain stability and security in the world. He also stressed that every effort needs to be taken to avoid the worst scenario as concerns the current situation around #Ukraine. He said he was a proponent of diplomacy and laid down a whole raft of proposals that he believes reflect many of Russia’s concerns and initiatives that we outlined and relayed to the US and NATO in the draft documents on security guarantees.
I want to note straight away that the Russian President responded by saying that Russia was going to carefully study President Biden’s proposals and would certainly pay due consideration to them. He made clear, however, that these proposals did not really address the central, key elements of Russia’s initiatives either with regards to non-expansion of #NATO, or non-deployment of strike weapons systems on Ukrainian territory, or NATO’s return to the positions that existed at the moment of signing the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act. To these items, we have received no meaningful response.
Many of the suggestions that were put forward during the conversation were part of the January 26 response to Russia’s proposals relayed to us by Washington and NATO.
Speaking about the tense situation around Ukraine, Joseph Biden made a mention, as might have been expected, of the possibility of harsh sanctions against Russia, but they were not the focus of his rather lengthy conversation with the Russian leader.
Our #President detailed Russia’s principled approaches and explained why the time has come to resolve issues that have a direct bearing on the Russian national security.
The President of Russia presented his overview of the history of relations between the US, NATO and Russia that has led to this crisis. He said, in particular, that the Soviet Union and the United States were certainly adversaries during the Cold War; and that although we were friends of sorts in the 1990s, even then the US and NATO did not pursue a constructive policy towards Russia. That was the time of NATO’s practical expansion of its operations, its admitting new members and moving closer towards Russian borders.
This was followed by the stark worsening of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture in the 2000s, which has had a direct impact on the security of our country.
What else did I want to note? The Russian President went into equally great detail about the Ukrainian Government’s destructive policies aimed at sabotaging the #MinskAgreements, which have been ongoing for the previous eight years. He noted that the West did not exert enough pressure on Kiev to follow through on its commitments under the agreements.
The President of Russia also highlighted the dangers of a militarized Ukraine and the on-going injections of cutting-edge weaponry, which the West has been steadfastly involved in and which has been encouraging the Ukrainian military to stage provocations both against Donbass and Crimea.
In light of Ukraine’s doctrinal policy which explicitly states its goal to retake #Crimea by force, the hypothetical admission of that country to NATO is fraught with dire consequences, including direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO, at the very least due the US’ recognition of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty as being sacred. This is what our President spoke in detail about during the conversation.
Overall, the presidents agreed that #Moscow was going to carefully study the proposals put forward by President Biden and where possible, will take them into consideration in its response to the position documents drafted by the US and NATO. We will make this response known to our partners and members of the general public in the nearest future.
Building on Joseph Biden’s desire for the US-Russia relations to be based on mutual respect, the presidents agreed to continue contacts on various levels on all the issues discussed during the telephone conversation today. I would like to stress once again that overall, the conversation was business-like.
* * *
❓ #Question: Can you tell us if today’s conversation has shed any light on US motives? If President Biden knew that he was going to talk to Vladimir Putin on the phone, why did he announce a Russian “invasion” on February 16, which shook the entire world?
Is it possible that after the two heads of state have spoken today, President Biden can still set a new date for this “invasion” for tomorrow or the day after? Such a statement will only provoke further concerns globally. How are we supposed to interpret this?
💬 Yury Ushakov: You know very well that tensions have been stoked over our troops’ movements on Russian territory, albeit close to the Ukrainian border, for several months now. I agree completely that the whole situation has reached absurd levels in the past days and hours. But here are the facts: the US is stoking hysteria over our so-called planned Russian “invasion,” giving even the dates of this “invasion,” all the while working jointly with its allies to build up Ukraine’s “military muscle.”
Significant funds are being allocated to modernize the Ukrainian armed forces, and more military instructors are being sent there. So, the “invasion” chorus is a backdrop to create opportunities for possible provocations by the Ukrainian military. This is our view of the situation.
❓ Question: Is it possible the US will continue to act like this?
💬 Yury Ushakov: I don’t know. It’s the US that chooses to go down this road. We have made our thoughts known and have said repeatedly that we can’t understand why mass media have been feeding false narratives about Russia’s intentions.
❓ Question: Did the presidents discuss the incident with the US submarine in Russia’s territorial waters?
💬 Yury Ushakov: No, they didn’t. We are aware of the incident, and necessary actions are being taken by the Defence Ministry, but the subject was not raised during the conversation between the two presidents.
❓ Question: Can you tell us if Russia made clear what it would do in the event Ukraine’s Government decided to provoke conflict in Donbass? What will Russia do then?
💬 Yury Ushakov: We emphasised, firstly, that we were going to consider the proposals put forward by President Biden today, even though they overlap to a great deal with the US and NATO responses we have already received. We also indicated that an interdepartmental discussion of possible responses was nearly finished. The results will be made public in the near future.
❓ Question: The US has already shared its views on the telephone call. In particular, they continue to claim that they still don’t know if any actions follow, and what President Putin’s plans are for a potential “invasion” of Ukraine.
💬 Yury Ushakov: To be honest, I haven’t seen the American interpretation of the call yet. However, I have shared with you what we had to say on the subject.
❓ Question: Are there any discussions scheduled in the coming weeks?
💬 Yury Ushakov: Like I said, the presidents agreed that discussions on various issues should continue. In particular we will discuss the issues that Joseph Biden raised today. Naturally, we will give priority to addressing those concerns that were clearly and publicly stated in the two draft documents.
🔗 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67761
#InternationalRelations Embassy of Russia in the USA / Посольство России в США
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23 minutes ago, phdhorn said:
Re: Ray's post
tl;didread: Ukraine is a shitshow. No film at 11 because it's obvious.
Ray knows his stuff, no doubt, but this is pretty much what I've always said after 2014 when I got interested in this and started reading about it. Ukraine has adopted more poorly to post-1989 freedom than any of the major former SSR's (or pseudo-SSR's) that I've read. I'd like to find out more about why they have so badly screwed themselves - perhaps it's the oligarchical culture as Ray defines, perhaps it's such a mixed bag of identities that there is no real self-identity, or perhaps they just don't know how to do democratic elections, the "Russian system" being burned into their culture, I don't know. But it seems that the Poroshenko's and the Zelensky's (Kuchma was a crook in the 90's, and of course the Yushchenko affair, followed by the Yanukovych presidency, which mysteriously flip-flopped more to the Russian side of things, which of course was right after Tymoshenko's Prime Ministership (and subsequent conviction of fraud and corruption, with a 7-year jail sentence, 3 years served). I mean, this government history makes Xi Jiping and the Chicom Boys look like amateurs in comparison!).
The Ukraine situation existed long before Manafort or 2014; it had been bad (though not as much so) through the 1990's and into the 2000's. They just either suck, are corrupt, or can't get out of their own way.
Ray or 956, do you think Germany is hedging so much not only because of the gas issues, but because Ukraine is such a stinking mess, and has been?Germany’s reticence with Ukraine is absolutely partly to do with Ukrainian ineptness and corruption. There’s no doubt about that, and for U.S. official policy in Ukraine, “rule of law” has ranked right behind “Russia invades” as the biggest problem.
However, lots of nations are corrupt, so why is it so particularly toxic in Ukraine? The answer is that Russia uses corruption as a strategic weapon, first. Second, in sort of grim irony, corruption damages Ukraine more because Ukraine actually does make fits and starts towards rule of law and because it is a real but flawed democracy.
Speaking as someone with lots of experience inside former Soviet and eastern bloc states, Ukrainian corruption is not qualitatively worse than in nearly any of the non-EU/NATO states. The difference is that in places like Belarus, Russia, the Stans, or Azerbaijan, corruption is both entrenched and predictable, and more or less regulated by authorities. When anti-corruption initiatives are undertaken, you can be confident that they are actually tools of political coercion against entities that have fallen out of favor with the regime. This also makes for a more stable investment climate— one generally knows the ground rules of how much one will pay in bribes and to whom, and more importantly— that the person one bribes today will still be around as your “roof” tomorrow.
Ukraine has equally pernicious corruption, but it also has genuine political competition. At one point or another, virtually every political competitor is exposed. That means that even a genuine anticorruption effort (there have actually been some) is bound to be exploited and perceived as a simple political attack on rivals (often they are political). And what’s more, there is no predictability in the system, because political leadership can change and now all of a sudden the politicians who were your clients are on the outside and you’re a target yourself.
This is a state of affairs that Russia exploits and encourages. It is official Russian state policy to tunnel into as many politicians as possible in Ukraine (and other countries) because corruption is a strategic win for them. And Ukraine was a satellite for most of its history. We tend to forget that even in 2004 the Russia backed candidate very nearly stole an election and also poisoned his rival (almost certainly with Russian help). Any nation that is in Russia’s sphere of influence will have corruption issues. Balts managed to break out of this cycle by fleeing into the NATO and EU shadow and then deciding to just start breaking some eggs.
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10 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:
I'd go more with Russia purposefully letting out info. I'm thinking more likely what is occurring now is exactly what Putin was looking to achieve. Play the long game, be the one who turned out to actually have "no plans to invade" and let Ukraine slowly deteriorate on its own with interference from the west until internally support for Russian grows into a bigger movement.
I don’t think I’m there. Putin has simply set the table. The fact is that he cannot launch a lightning surprise strike from probably the most reconnoitered patch of geography outside the Taiwan strait. There’s no need to be sneaky, this is just going to be a fight. So what has this done:
1. He’s pulled Ukrainian defenses into maximum readiness. Russian planners know exactly what they are up against and they’re keeping Ukrainian personnel exhausted and stressed.
2. He has played the Alliance into tipping its cards. He now knows that NATO won’t intervene. He’s gotten a sense how how much arms and reinforcements can get to Ukraine. There is no doubt that his intelligence services are scrambling to find out the details of where each Ally is on response and what sanctions are going to bite him, and feeding that back.
Like I said, he’s set the table. He knows what the fight will look like, he knows the consequences, he can decide if the juice is worth it for him.
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So from a political perspective, the question is: Assuming Zelensky is forced into snap elections to reconfirm the country’s confidence in his leadership, which many are already discussing, could those even occur with Russian artillery raining down and Russian troops on the move? Would such an election be seen as legitimate, both withinUkraine and abroad? And if not, what is the option if a sketch comedian proves himself unable to govern a country that is being torn apart internally, as well as at its external borders? Can an effective Ukrainian resistance led by a moderate with no military acumen, or will it descend into disparate groups fighting against the Russian invaders, while also carrying out their own internal steps to gain power? The New York Times did an article a few weeks back about who exactly surrounds Zelensky, and it wasn't pretty. It is essentially all former sketch comedians.
@Shady Ray, I am pretty sure that the president is simply the president for his five year term, so any snap elections would be a secondary referendum on Zelenskyy via parliament. A snap poll also has to have higher than 50 percent turnout in Ukraine, and I can’t imagine that happening in the event of a major conflict.
If the conflict is a big one, you’re talking things like a government in exile. A big war knocks all the pieces off the board and you just start over with politics. Where this does become interesting is if Russia recognizes LPR/DPR or annexes more chunks of Ukraine into Russia.
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European press is reporting that soon civilian flights to and over Ukraine will likely get cut off soon, as insurers will not cover the carriers. Even if this doesn’t happen, this crisis is causing significant damage to Ukraine in all kinds of ways.
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13 hours ago, FartingMonk said:
The information side is what has me confused. I've never seen such an overt action on information. It's almost like Russia is telegraphing what they are doing and then the US going out and telling everyone. Hey they just did this! It's weird like Putin is baiting us into a fight. The mass Graves thing may be that false flag they were warning us about.
It’s not all designed for us. Ukraine and Russia were part of the same nation under the Tsars and Bolsheviks until 1992. After the crackup, they maintained extremely cordial relations till at least 2007 with visa free travel, economic ties, educational connections. Kind of a dysfunctional U.S-Canada thing going on. Millions and millions of Russians have family in Ukraine or are part Ukrainian themselves- and not just the so-called “Russian” East. There is not a natural antipathy for Ukraine in Russia, and to the contrary Russians generally have liked Ukrainians.
So how do you convince Russians that it’s OK to go and kill and loot in a country that is manifestly not threatening Russia and where maybe your second cousin is still living? You really have to fabricate something nefarious. Just like us, the Russians like to see themselves as the heroes of the nightly news; the average Russian doesn’t relish walloping some Ukrainian pipe fitter for no good reason.
This also explains the obsessive coverage of the extremist Ukrainian elements and laser focus on fascists, real or alleged, in Western Ukrainian. First, the Great Patriotic War is the foundation story of modern Russian national identity. Russians are by nature even less eager to fight than Americans— but framing someone as a Nazi or Nazi sympathizer flips a switch that few Americans can understand. And this is especially important in Ukraine, because most Russians know good and well that millions of Ukrainians fought through blood and mud all the way to Berlin and that Ukraine suffered more than any other republic save Belarus. Hell, four Ukrainian cities were Hero Cities of the Soviet Union and they made up the title for Moscow to make sure the Russian Republic had enough. So you have to find some Nazis.
Second, Western Ukrainians are about as foreign as it gets in Ukraine, with a maintained culture and real history of obstreperous opposition to Russia (and yes, collaborationist history). And less of a diaspora into Russia itself— the West is the only place you hear Ukrainian and nothing else. So if you can frame this as Russia coming to the rescue of the poor benighted Ukraine, set upon by malicious Western Nazis, you have a reason for some Russians to fight.
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7 hours ago, Brew said:
Interesting read, I haven’t thought anything about it really. People compete for other countries all the time. She is basically 50/50 and is probably way more familiar with China than a lot of those that jump around based on her parent’s heritage and how she was raised. It’s a nonstory other than the fact she’s actually good at what she does.
As noted above, having the Olympics in China is already a problem with what they have going on. A 15 year old choosing to compete for her mother’s country several years ago is what it is.
The hockey issue is a much more significant issue in my opinion because there is no link back to China. It’s a bunch of Americans and Canadians that are strictly playing for China to get paid with no Chinese heritage which is completely counter to what the games are. They suck, so no one cares. What happens when they are actually a good team in 2026 or 2030?
As the hosts, they get a spot in the hockey tournament. They didn’t want to be embarrassed, so they bought a team (and hockey rules are different, you don’t have to hold a passport).
In future years they will be so far from even qualifying that they won’t bother to do this bit. That said— the Americans who pulled on that jersey can also EABOD. Fuck, we badly need Sly Stallone to fight a Beijing commie in this country so kids know what’s up.
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5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:
Es la verdad.
On a side note….don’t y’all think that this stands as a pretty strong capstone on the lesson of “if you have nukes, keep them, if you don’t, you better get them?”
At this point, I can’t come up with a single credible argument against any nation state deciding to obtain nukes as a deterrent.
Ukraine had them, but gave them up with an expectation that their security would be provided for. They chose…..poorly.
If I was the leader of Dickbuttistan, I’d be doing everything I could to get my hands on a nuke or three by Monday.The lessons of both Ukraine and Iraq are to get/keep nukes if you ever think you might have a disagreement with someone. That said, Ukraine would have been worse than Pakistan as a potential proliferator for money, so it could be better for the world that they gave them up.
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2 hours ago, Handcruser said:Talked to a co-worker today. He’s from the Ukraine a raised in crimea. All of his family is still in the Ukraine.
Ukraine has a plan and he said they’ll never capitulate. They’ll take the fighting to the towns and send Russians home in body bags for a long time. Guerilla style. They can’t straight up fight them.
Get ready.We shall see. The one option Ukrainians have that Afghans didn’t— they’re white Christians who can literally walk into the EU and the first world and start working somewhere. If this goes off, I’d want nothing more than to see Russia get mauled. That said, what would I do if I was a Ukrainian and a father or a husband? I’d be sorely tempted to say “fuck it, let him have it.” My grandkids will speak perfect Polish/German/Czech, drink good beer, and take holiday in the Canaries and these assholes’ grandkids will be stuck in Kharkiv.
I try to be pretty detached, but I have friends and people I care about deeply in the country. Wars fucking suck. They suck more if you die. I don’t want them to die.
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Revisiting the Mangalica chops. I was inspired by this guy’s video:
I did something similar. Simple sear, starting them off in a cold pan over the fire to render the fat. Then seared on each side. Instead of a brown butter sauce, I finished them with a bath of butter, rosemary, and garlic and then added a compound garlic-scallion butter. They were pretty much perfect. Because of the fat and marbling you can and should take them at least to medium. Searing the edge crispy was genius. Sides are unimportant but prosciutto and parmesan stuffed mushrooms and a baked sweet potato.
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The Israelis are also pulling down to the bare minimum and sending most staff and all families home.
Русский корабль - иди нахуй
in Daily Texan
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So far most of the OSINT guys are mixed to leaning pessimist on the “withdrawal” taking place. NATO SecGen has said the same.
The “extreme” bill on separatist recognition is fascinating. Remember that no bore happens without Putin’s instructions. Possibly the most divisive scenario for the Alliance is as follows:
- Russia recognizes the regions
- Separatists “request” Russian military assistance
- Russia does so and the invasion happens without a shot being fired, soon we start hearing noises about annexation.
Many Western Allies will hail anything short of war as a victory of sorts, the Kremlin will claim war fears were overhyped, Zelenskyy is weakened, Ukraine keeps getting sliced up slowly, and Russia has a new salient to get hyperventilated about. Germany and France will certainly argue for the lightest sanctions package possible as a reward for Putin for not killing people as he invades his neighbor.