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SL Xpress

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Everything posted by SL Xpress

  1. A push towards Tokmak would be huge. I mean, obviously, but anything successful along that line of axis opens up all kinds of opportunities. Edit: I'm not really adding anything here. Just looking at maps and imagining possibilities.
  2. Zelensky saying a major deal on F-16s is imminent: https://ca.style.yahoo.com/zelenskiy-says-awaits-final-agreements-033240834.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABlja0AAPbMfkP32nX_lRimo3ZXL_EjTGE0cJjXHdgkw8Fu0VNV1UQlxyBH85SuR2rTwZa-TdoilRV1f2nlA-1QsSTyMXdZcrgP161V7ptzgMJF-CWuBdVC05vzLoqmz9wRhIX-Q6h6RmS90mqaNZznopaLmAyThjO_ySHZIc0FN
  3. No heavy armor, yet. Just recon in force in multiple areas. So it depends on how we're defining the start of the counter offensive. In the broadest definition, Ukraine hasn't engaged in offensive operations on this scale since right after Kherson was liberated, when they were still trying to press on multiple fronts with limited success, which shortly stopped. So for me, yes, it's started. In some places there are reports they've advanced as much as 5 to 10 kilometers in the last few days, successfully clearing out several mine fields during operations. But the major counter offensive hasn't begun, yet. One Ukraine general said it was much like obscenity, we'll know it when we see it.
  4. Gotcha. I misunderstood. You're saying you wouldn't be in favor of wiping Russia and Russians off the map. I can't imagine I'll ever go there literally. I get people like to say things like that rhetorically, but I find that dangerous, mostly because I'm convinced there's an evolutionary component where we're predisposed as a species to seek that as a solution, and so feeding into it in any way is not smart. Even jokingly. But that's me. Anyway, thank you for the clarification. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
  5. It can be all of the above. - access/ownership to natural resources off the coast - possession of Sevastopol, which carries massive emotional and historical weight to Russians, not to mention is a significant Naval port. - possession of Crimea itself, which has been largely Russian since Stalin forcibly exported the remaining Crimean Tartars to Siberia and started bringing in Russian citizens. From 1991 to 2014, Crimea was one of the highest Oblasts in terms of percentage of votes cast for Russian friendly politicians - because they could. The Ukraine government was in turmoil, with no one really knowing who should be in charge after Yanukovych fled. Many of the top admiralty were known to be loyal to Russia and would switch sides immediately given the opportunity. In particular, Sergei Yeliseyev, the acting commander of the entire Ukraine Navy, who is now Deputy Chief of the Russian Baltic Fleet, and Denis Berezovsky, who was appointed commander in chief after Yeliseyev defected, also defected, and is now the deputy commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The takeover of Ukraine Navy assets in the Crimean operation was largely an inside job. Trying to pin the takeover of Crimea on any one of those bullet points is missing the bigger picture.
  6. gen·o·cide [ˈjenəˌsīd] NOUN the deliberate killing or severe mistreatment of a large number of people from a particular national or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group: "a campaign of genocide" _____________________________________________________________________ Putin launched the invasion with the express intent to make Ukraine nonexistent. The Russians aren't putting Ukrainians on trains to put them in ovens, but outside of that, everything they've done is without a doubt exactly what genocide is. They target children with attempts to brainwash them. They destroy anything written in Ukrainian. They literally put bullets in the back of civilians' heads wholescale. They destroy any piece of art or anything else of Ukrainian cultural value. They blow up prisoner of war camps to kill the captives there. They make medical facilities and personnel high value targets. I mean, I'm with you on the blowing up of the dam. I'll also say I'd enter into some kind of negotiations with Russia to make the nuclear power plant some kind of demilitarized zone. I realize the Russians can't be bargained with in good faith, but anything that lessens the chances of the eventual meltdown of those reactors would be worth paying a very high price, outside of allowing the aggression to stand. As I said before, it's a significant jump in consequences to go from blowing up the dam to doing the same thing in some way to the Zaporizhzhia power plant...but not insurmountable ones. It doesn't even have to be a carrot. Could be leave the area or NATO will take it by force. I don't think anyone is willing to do that, but they should be. To me allowing the nuclear power plant to go into meltdown, or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, is the crossing of the rubicon that we haven't seen, yet.
  7. Well, they don't have many ships any more. A bunch were captured in Crimea but then returned. A bunch more were captured in Berdyansk. Their main frigate that was capable of missions away from port was scuttled towards the start of the invasion. They've never had much of a fleet, and did nothing to invest in it following independence in 1991. All of their ships were/are inherited from the Soviet Union. The loss of Sevastopol was pretty crippling, since a huge amount of the support facilities were located there. The marines were officially separated from the Navy on May 23, so now they're an independent service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
  8. Schulz2.0, I have it on good authority from the Russian Propaganda office that those AMX-10RCs are actually Leopard 2s and 500 of them have been destroyed in the Ukrainians massive counter offensive which has been decisively repulsed once and for all. On a completely different note, it's so fascinating to read about Subatai's conquests of the Russians and east Europeans relatively close to where the battles are taking place right now, and know that he mastered the ability to separate and attack in different elements across a front, then combine when exploiting a weakness with overwhelming force, centuries ago. Love what I'm reading about what the Ukrainians are doing so far. I've also been very gratified that we haven't seen or heard much regarding Russian air close combat support just yet.
  9. Reports that 16,000 people live in critical risk zones downstream. Evacuations have already begun.
  10. I mean, I know of a place not too far upstream that could use a REALLY BIG beaver dam right about now.
  11. Shorter runway required. Not nearly as little tolerance for debris as the F-16. Much more compact maintenance systems. I'm not saying easier, necessarily, but compact because of the need to be carrier ready. Two engines. I wish there was some way to modernize their suite before handing them over so they are true 4.5 generation aircraft. I don't know what kind of upgrades these planes have. I did like the part of them not operating at sea so they're in better shape than they otherwise would be. This would be huge. It sounds like it's practically a done deal, too. It says four months to get them to Ukraine. I know we'd all love it to be sooner, but 4 months sounds like a much better time frame than I thought it might be for western fighters to be deployed. Great catch, 956 Worldwide. Thanks for sharing.
  12. It reminds me of Houston when they opened up the reservoir a few years back.
  13. Washington Post article citing official sources along with anonymous sources about how the beginning of the counteroffensive is, in fact, not underway, but might be. If that sounds clear as mud, I'm only repeating what I'm reading. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/05/belgorod-russia-ukraine-counteroffensive-militias/ The stuff at the end about Prigozhin and Lt. Col. Venevitin I can't get enough of. "'Prigozhin accused the regular military of placing explosives on roads used by the mercenaries to retreat from Bakhmut. Russia recently captured the eastern Ukrainian city after a months-long siege led by Wagner. On Sunday, Prigozhin posted a statement saying that Russian soldiers shelled his Wagner fighters as they demined the roads. He claimed the alleged attack was repelled, and Wagner detained Lt. Col. Roman Venevitin of Russia’s 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade. Shortly after, Prigozhin’s press service posted a video showing what appeared to be Venevitin confessing that he had ordered his troops to shoot at Wagner mercenaries “in a state of intoxication and out of personal enmity.'”
  14. That’s what he’s saying to the puppeteers with their hand firmly up his asshole.
  15. To be honest at this point I'm not thinking of the worst case scenario being a meltdown because of lack of cooling water. I'm thinking sabotage. Don't know all the worst case scenarios there, but I do feel comfortable saying your scenario would be the jumping off point. Again, I'm getting paranoid here. It's doesn't change my thinking of what has to be done. It furthers my resolve on what has to be done. And at least there is minimal international observations going on at the power plant. As opposed to the dam where there was none. I just know we'll all breathe a huge sigh of relief if somehow the Ukrainians can take that part of their country back with the reactors/power plant still intact. I guess we'll see what the fallout from the dam being destroyed actually ends up being. Pardon the expression.
  16. Nothing about being able to take a defensive driving course or hire an attorney to receive deferred adjudication.
  17. "Whoever did it" indeed. This is a flat out demolition job. The amount of damage to the infrastructure is catastrophic. It's a purposeful sabotage done by the people in control of the area for maximum effect. I'll say this, too. The chances of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant surviving this war just went downhill. While a big jump in terms of consequences, it's not an insurmountable jump.
  18. So here's a Reuters' article from October 2022 where Zelensky accuses the Russians of mining the dam in preparation for blowing it up. The article doesn't go into as much detail as I'd prefer regarding the consequences. I'd prefer something like an engineer's report. But it's mildly helpful for providing a small amount of context. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/is-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-about-be-blown-2022-10-21/ BTW, with no facts to back it up, I'm firmly convinced this is the Russians. Just like I'm firmly convinced they blew up the Nordstream 2 pipeline. IMO they're doing everything they can to slow down a Ukrainian counter offensive, especially to give the Ukrainians fewer options, even short term, so Russia can concentrate their defenses somewhat. They're also legitimately concerned about losing this area, so by destroying it they're depriving Ukraine of a very significant asset. There was also a heavy two lane bridge associated with the dam, so that deprives Ukraine from gaining that in the future as a means of shifting assets and supplies to the left bank of the Dnipro. I don't completely understand the timing. If the dam was mined - and I believe it was - it seems like they could blow it up any time they want. Maybe the Russians saw signs of an imminent river crossing they had no real counter for. In any case, this is obviously a big deal. I'm concerned about the lives and livelihoods that will be affected along the river, both up and down stream. This is a major, significant event in terms of navigation, flooding, water availability, and electric power generation, among other things.
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