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Codaxx

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Posts posted by Codaxx

  1. 21 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

    You’re blaming the fumble on Blue?  That was Helm.  Can you explain to me why the TE is turned around looking at the back instead of finding someone to block and bury?

    Wait, you are blaming a fumble on the guy who was blocking downfield and blue ran up his back?  That is an interesting take 

  2. 32 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

    You weren't impressed by Blue  lol wut? 

    Held under 3.3 yards in 2 of his last 4 (2.6 vs ISU (Baxter was at 5.9) and 3.3 vs OSU). Killed it vs a beaten down Tech team. His mistakes vs Washington put a damper on Washington game (non-contact fumble and a dropped TD pass). Most the hype is based on that TEch game. 

  3. 14 minutes ago, Red Five said:

    You weren't impressed with Blue last year? That's a first. Even those of us who wrote him off multiple times are kind of giddy over him now.

    I thought he was kind of as advertised. Speed was always there, the question was would he develop to be a complete RB. If you get chalkboard blocking, he is the RB I want with the ball. Like to see both Baxter and Blue show more between the tackles. Run harder. He had 2-3 fumbles with like 60-70 carries. That isn’t going work. In the last 4 games of the season Blue had a higher YPC rating once (Tech),  compared to Baxter 

  4. RB is going to be interesting. I think Burton has a pretty good eye at RB. That makes me really curious to  Christian Clark. I wasn’t very impressed with Blue or Baxter last year. I don’t think either locked up the spot. Blue has ball security and blocking issues. Baxter ran tentative at times. Sark trotting Baxter out to talk to the media is a clear sign he is at the top of the depth chart. Plenty of potential in the room, will be fun to see if someone emerges 

  5. 13 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


    Worthy caught 26% of deep balls in 2023. 21% in 2022. 33% in 2021. Really that’s just a broke hand missed ball or two from 2022. Average depth of target probably mid 30s.

    Mitchell was 36% in 2023.

    JT was 60% in 2022 and 27% in 2023. 21 combined targets at an average depth of target in the mid 20s.

    JW caught 7 of 9 over the two years. Average depth of target mid 20s.

    QE deep completion % was 34% in 2023 and 30% in 2022.

    HC was 36% in 2022 and 23% in 2021.

    CT was 33% in 2021.


    That’s all over the board. But the original question was surrounding the sack rate. QE not only got rid of it quicker in 2022 he threw it 25% deeper. At one time I set some parameters of all QBs for the 2022 season and it was top 5%in getting rid of the ball but also top 5% in deepest average depth of target.

    That 2022 note is the anomaly, which coincides with the season in which Worthy effort and tracking are in question but weren’t on Cards plays. Throwing and catching are timing. If you throw at 5 yards when you’ve worked all season at 10 yards, then you will have more awkward looking plays. And probably some that the receiver either never sees the ball or sees it way too late. There were a number of these with other pass catchers too. Worthy plays hard. It makes no sense for him to not attack at the ball on certain plays. This is an alternate consideration.

    The completion % on deep plays was 36% and 23% for Card vs 34% and 30% for Ewers, I am not sure how you look at those numbers and think Card was better on deep balls. You are hanging your hat on 6% difference in 1 year, which is likely 1 or 2 completions. Its basically the difference between Worthy making 1 of the 2 drops vs Washington in the bowl game or Worthy not making the TD catch vs WV that went off the hands of a defender. I think you are reading a little too much into these numbers. 

  6. 7 hours ago, Had Enough said:


    Well first off I was responding to another post that was referencing 2022 not portions of 2023. It was within the context of referencing why QEs sack rate was lower in 2022 than 2023.

    Here’s something else to ponder. Why in the fuck is it that Worthy’s tracking skills were an issue in only 1 of the 3 seasons and 1 of 3 QBs? And that 1 QB it wasn’t even all the time. I’d even wager that you’ll never see a better ball tracking example than Worthy on that Bama TD. He ran a long way, the ball traveled a long way, and caught it damn near with his turned from the point at which it originated. Another example was this year, maybe Rice, when the ball traveled 80 yards in the air, and he caught it a yard out of bounds (not his fault it was oob).

    In a subsequent post, I even referenced other players being surprised or caught guard off at the arrival of a pass. In that season of 22, not 23. One hit Roschon in the damn head.

    Yes, that’s all part of timing/route running. I’ve referenced it previously that QE is often anticipatory thrower. It looks great when it works but less so when not. As an inexperienced dude, he was a little anxious but that improved in 23 and will likely in 24. Probably anxious to avoid hits. A little too excited at times perhaps.

    I gave numbers to support the theory. A theory as to why his sack per pressure was high relative to his peers in 23 but was far less so in 22. I made no declaration as to his overall abilities.

    Sorry, I don’t know if you’re Joel Klatt, Joe Montana, Todd Dodge and Bobby Burton rolled into one. I’m glad he throws the most catchable ball you’ve seen but not sure how that’s supposed to wow me. But there are numbers to say that his ball in actuality to date , at this level, is around 65-70% catchable. The catchable rate in 22 was probably not as high as in 23.

    I look forward to your next bolded post. Perhaps throw in some italics, underlines so I can tell if you really mean it.

    I am not sure that is the case on Worthy. I am not sure you have the numbers, but it would be interesting to see deep shot percentage among the Texas WRs. 

  7. 1 minute ago, NoName said:

    i don't have it for 22 and thats just sacks per attempt, not sacks per pressure which is the real info to have/know.

    either way, it's been discussed in the past. it's a known thing about him

    I am just pointing out his sack per attempt was dramatically lower in his first year, based on attempts... He was solid at avoiding sacks that year, some argued to careful at the time. Just odd 

  8. 4 minutes ago, NoName said:

    no, numbers don't back it up about the Houston game splits.

    • Pre Houston (Rice through OU) he had 1 sack every 13.1 passing attempts
    • for the Houston game he had 1 sack ever 9.7 attempts
    • Post OU (so including the Houston game) he had 1 sakc every 16.2 attempts
    • Post Houston (excluding the Houston game, TCU through the end of the season) he had 1 sack every 18.1 attempts

    this is a known thing w/r/t his pressure to sack rate and has been discussed a ton over the last 2 full seasons.

    image.png.d4e544dd42b6998a20d714c7abdf2875.png

    i included DFEI to show that he was shit regarding sacks against the worst defenses on the schedule for the 3 worst defenses on the schedule (all outside the DFEI top 100) he was sacked once every 9.1 attempts.

     

     

    I trust you, I am not going to go through all that work. Not sure if you have pressure rate vs sacks from his first year, but something changed dramatically between year 1 and year 2. I dont think the pass protection got worse, but perhaps I am wrong. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 39 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

    when Quinn came back from his injury that he suffered vs UH.. he was quick to get down and take a sack without being brought to the ground by a defender.  He wasn't fully recovered imo, so he wasn't going to try and extend a play.

    Numbers actually support this.. 

    11 sacks in 296 attempts.. I put the sacks back in to give 307 attempts and a sack every 27.9 attempts in year 1

    27 sacks in 394 attempts... same math gets you 421 attempts and a sack every 15.6 attempts in year 2. 

    Its a massive jump and the OL was better, so hard to explain how he was solid in year 1 at sacks avoidance and not very good in year 2. Your explanation makes as much sense based on that. 

  10. 11 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


    Oh I know you want the guy who looks best on paper. But there will be bitching about some dude even in years when we win it all. That’s just the way it goes.

    We did not fail to cover those last 12 yards cause of our LG. Not to say it was any one players fault.

    If Neto is the guy, I will assume he earned it along with the assumption that Conner is improved too. I’m just not worried about the roster. At any position. Even interior DLine.

    I will fully admit, I root for the most physically gifted player to play. I also realize that doesn’t always work out. I used Crawford as an example of a guy I rooted to take the Safety job, until I saw him play safety. 
     

    The best way to fix the red zone, is to have the ability to run ball in the red zone. Probably why Neto is getting a long look. 
     

    OL will be solid either way, so no need to stress out on this position battle. I am sure this thread will find a position or coach to bitch about. It’s is called Surly for a reason. If I had to pick I would guess  DL or LB.. 

  11. 1 hour ago, Had Enough said:


    You bitched about Jones often. Pretty certain people stated he shouldn’t play or should be gone. He improved as an old guy. Oddly enough, the things you reference on Conner were things that Jones did show the ability to do in 2021 ( I’m not sure how much pulling he did).

    Why do those things mean something different to you now? And you complain little about Campbell with those similar struggles in pass protection at an easier position?

    He just wants the most “talented” player to play. I get that. Neto has a better tool belt, than Conner. This is the type of debate Longhorn fans would have killed to have 5 years ago. Neto is being forced to compete with a 2 year starter on what was a decent OL last year. If Neto takes the job that is a really good thing. This isn’t a situation where people are pining to put in a true freshman, because there really aren’t any other choices. This is a legitimate competition.  Speaks to how far this roster has come the last 4 years 

    • Hook 'Em 3
  12. 6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    Listen, I understand your condition and don't like picking on you about this kind of behavior, but come on, man. You cannot be this literal when considering the fluidity and strategic requirements of roster management. Black and white certainties, the kind of way Tom Herman thought about such matters, get managers in trouble. They limit their own ceilings or get peter principled into clear failure and get fired. No one is literally arguing that Blackshire is at Texas solely to mange other LBs. Get a grip.

    As to the old school Mike desires, good luck with it. That wouldn't suit Texas' needs in 2024 and that is true for most/all other P4s and Notre Dame. If I have to choose in terms of giving a scholarship to a kickoff specialist or a situational Mike, I am taking the kickoff guy. Michigan's TEs and TBs would go for 300+ yards against the Texas defense with a MLB standing flat footed on the 50. 

    Correct, Old school Mike is not very useful for many games today. There are always exceptions. Multiple comments about Blackshire being too slow. If people dont think he is a useful addition to the LB room vs power Run-centric programs, than what value does he bring on the field? That also puts a serious question to his value on coverage teams. All I have seen is posters saying what he can not do on the field and pumping up the leadership angle. Perhaps my reading of comments would change, if anyone posted what they thought he could add to the field.  

  13. 2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    Gideon and Haines sucked. Taafe gives people flashbacks because he's white. That's a simple and legitimate psychological thing that many idiots can't fathom being reasonable and therefore get themselves into a twist over. The human brain primitively seeks analogs when comparing a current item/situation/person/group. 

    Mykelle Thompson (I don't care about his NFL career), BJ Foster, and Jerrin Thompson all were mediocre at Texas at S and all get run over regularly on this board. They are all black. I think this place is an equal opportunity ridiculer. 

    Now, as to the "they were the starters for a reason" premise, the only player with a valid reason for being a starter, who has only been a starter in a limited manner, is Taafe. Gideon had better players behind and around him, and the coaching staff was idiotic in playing him as their teacher's pet. Haines was objectively so bad that whoever was behind him should have been getting looks. 

    Only you are taking a POV on Blackshire that he needs to "babysit" the LB room, and that that is a waste of a roster spot for one cycle. That's your own whining idiocy because in your mind, while playing EA Sports NCAA Football 2024, you convinced yourself that he'd be a great plug and play solution at MLB for rush-oriented teams.

    Bringing a guy in that is a known quantity to the staff, who is mature and positive and supportive with coaches and team members, and who can contribute in a limited scope on defense and more than that on special teams, is a perfectly fine portal addition as one of the last guys on the roster. BTW, also while costing the program virtually nothing in NIL.

    What the fuck is going on here? How is this even debatably a bad thing worth worrying about in multiple posts?

    This is just you making wild ass assumptions. At no time did I say he was a great addition vs the run oriented teams. It was the only reason I could come up with for the staff to bring him in. He is different body type, than the rest of the room. Texas is not loaded with great run stuffing LBs, you could argue there isnt a single one. You would hope the staff thought Blackshire could be a solid C gap to C gap old-school LB, whose fit would be in clear run situations.. Babysit comment was to the comments that he is brought in for the sole purpose of providing leadership to the room and he is not capable in any facet of LB play. That something I could see in the first few years of building a program. Imagine if that was the strategy at WR this year or any other position. 

  14. 4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

    No one is ever "far beyond that," especially not 2024 Texas given historical context and coaching/roster turnover. The staff worked very hard to establish the conditions that allowed for a 12-1 season last year and now several of the players and coaches that made that possible are gone. To think Texas wouldn't invest in a culture guy is a head scratcher.

    You would hope so, if you are a team looking to compete for a title in the coaches 4th year. Just cant imagine Sark saying I need to bring in a guy to babysit the LBs, even if I dont think he will add much on the field. LB isnt a deep spot and that could be a huge problem with injuries. It assumes that there were no options in the portal that brought leadership and solid ILB play. 

  15. 50 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

    Hill already played off ball LB last year, so we’re not moving him. I’m sure he’ll still blitz plenty again this year, but his role isn’t changing. 

     

    You’ve clearly never watched Blackshire play.  Blackshire was slow and couldnt move at 250ish. Now he’s over 260. He would get absolutely murdered by Michigan’s offense, and playing him significant snaps would be monumentally stupid. Blackshire was a culture take. He may get some run in goal line situations, but that’s pretty much it. 

    Are you under the impression we don’t play safeties in dime sets? He’ll still be playing safety.  PK very rarely runs true man. He’s almost all quarters/matching, which is perfectly fine for Mukuba at Safety. 

    I didnt like the pick up to start with, but I have to assume the coaches saw some role for him. I dont buy the culture angle, Texas is far beyond that at this point. I am going to hope he can fill a limited role that is utilized vs power running teams and short yardage. If that isnt the case, then it is completely mystery as to why they brought him in.  

  16. 2 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

    PK ran a ton of single high at UW. I've been waiting for us to install it. When we hired him I actually thought that BJ Foster was going to kill it as the box safety (oof). I think he's just been limited by having so little reliable athleticism at DB so far. 

    I'm hoping that the combination of corners who can be trusted more than 15 yards downfield and Derek Williams lets the defense evolve in similar way to the offense last year; that is, the coordinator can finally run their full playbook. 

    Side note: I see people talking about Wisner being a good fit for the "Keilan role." The Keilan role isn't really a unique position. Sark is going to use a variety of motion and screen concepts for lots of his skill players. It was only limited to Keilan the first two years because X was our only good receiver, so he needed to be running down the field, and it was more important to use Bijan/Rojo as traditional RBs. Once we added Mitchell last year, X was able to eat up Keilan's snaps. Next year I'd expect Bond, Blue, Wingo and others to all be able to fill that. I hope Wisner gets some PT, but it won't because he's put into a special Keilan role position.

    I agree on that. Blue is similar to KR. Not really sure why you would take someone like Blue out to run a swing pass to Wisner. 

  17. 13 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


    There are many variables to this. I understand your view but don’t necessarily agree. I won’t bore/annoy you with 40 times for S that I’ve thrown out in the past several months, but it’s clear that even the NFL doesn’t hold athletic traits as the end all be all. For a S processing speed is critical. I don’t know how you measure that.

    As fud referenced, if Mukuba had been fulfilling his potential, maybe he’s off to the NFL already. I do believe everyone matures differently so that’s not a knock on him. It’s very possible that he takes it to another level. Taafe logged significant snaps on a solid defense and top 5 team. You don’t do that particularly as an undersized, walk on without some traits albeit not measured with a stopwatch or measuring tape.

    From reading others, it sounds as though Mukuba has some versatility. There’s probably some merit to getting Barron some run at CB. So drop Mukuba to the slot. For me an equal consideration is that Brooks needs to elevate his game or he logs more bench time. I’d bet if the opponent runs 4/5 wide then Mukuba is in.

    My guess is we’ll rotate the back end quite a bit with different personnel groupings. Hell, I’d like to see a 6th DB on the field occasionally too.

    It will be interesting to see Nansen's influence. Does Texas run more single high? Nansen had some dime looks. Difference between the 2 is you have 0 issues dropping Makuba down on a WR. Lot is going to depend on how they use the secondary this year. 

  18. 2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    LSU did a whole bunch of idiotic things last season on defense. They used Perkins as a spy multiple times to their detriment. They basically took him out of games. Using him as a spy against FSU rendered him irrelevant. 

    Frankly, if you take out the Arkansas 2022 and Arkansas 2023 games, where Perkins went apeshit, his stats in both seasons are otherwise pedestrian. Maybe the new staff gets it right with him.

    If you believe the Nansen hype, Hill is going to be all over the field as a 3 down LB this season. Here's hoping.

    They didn't want him coming in at 260. 

    I think expectations on Blackshire are unrealistic. He was never an excellent player in HS or at Bama, even though he looked the part. I'd be stunned if, outside of special teams, Blackshire was getting more than 10% of the snaps in any single game unless there are injury issues. 

    He just fits the Michigan offense. I am not high on Blackshire, but he should decent from C gap to C gap in the run game. You dont want him covering Loveland. This should be the type of game suited for him. I can see him getting peak play time vs run oriented teams and watching from the sidelines vs passing teams, but we will find out. 

  19. 7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

    It's not like he was living on the edge last year. I imagine he's the one every-down LB with the names you mentioned all rotating situationally/for spells. Gbenda's my bet for the other week 1 starter to have a veteran presence in there, and because Michigan is going to be one of his higher snap count games.

    I would expect to see a healthy amount of Blackshire in that game. If you are going to bring in a 260 LB MLB, that is the game to use him

    • Hook 'Em 5
  20. 20 hours ago, Fud said:

    If he were a projected day one pick, he'd be in the draft this year 

    ESPN came out with top 10 returning secondary players in the nation and Makuba was on the list. Not a guarantee he is 1st or 2nd day player, but likely a draft pick. Personally, I will root for Makuba to take Taaffe's job. I believe Makuba offers athleticism and versatility at safety beyond Taaffe's abilities. We will see how it works out. Either way this is not an issue like guard 2 years ago or Edge under Sark the first 2 years. These are 2 viable options. This isnt going to result in Ben Davis starting. 

    • Hook 'Em 3
  21. 32 minutes ago, Bevo said:

    I'm a little less optimistic on the DL. I would be surprised if Broughton can consistently hold up on the inside and our depth is limited. And I think with Ford gone, we could have trouble getting gashed on inside runs. We would be even more thin if we lost all three of Bryant, Mitchell, and Swanson. However, they are not very likely to contribute and I would assume that whatever we get in the portal would be an upgrade.

    Going to come down to how the coaches utilize them. @closetojumping friends hinted at some changes. Collins and Bledsoe would be an extremely athletic starting duo. You get those 2 stunting and moving around and you can cause a lot of chaos in the backfield. I have heard reports that they want to run more single high safety looks. It will be interesting to see what reports leak out on the overall direction of the defense. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  22. 15 hours ago, sith_horn said:

    Nansen is listed as Co-Defensive Coordinator/Inside Linebackers coach. Perhaps there will be some collaboration with PK.

    I would think so. Arizona ran a much more complex defense. Varied coverages and lots of movement on the DL, all of which should fit this Texas roster better (experienced secondary with athleticism at safety and more athletic DTs). I would love Syrup Mitchell to find Jesus and be ready for the season or the portal to give Texas a 2 gapping DT, but some changes will need to be done if neither of those come to fruition. 

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