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Shady Ray

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Everything posted by Shady Ray

  1. Shady Ray

    Russia

    Oh, you are absolutely right about the Anti-slavism. Xenophobia towards Slavs is the only thing you can still get away with without too much in the way of consequences socially here. I mean, no one is out there hollering about the untermenschen or wanting to retake the Sudetenland, but behind closed doors, oh yeah, they are looked down upon. Germans are gonna German. It isn't a one-size fits all racism, in my experience, (and I am of course speaking broadly)but basically Germans see three types of Slavs (which even include some non-slavs). One, the "known Slavs", who actually have a specific and unique identity to the Germans in and of themselves due to cultural familiarity: These are the Poles, who are referred to as "Poles", and the Czechs, who are referred to as "Czechs". They are geographic neighbors, but they have their own identity, and there is obviously a lot of bad blood there left over from the War, both on their side due to that whole invasion, occupation, mass genocide kerfuffle, and on the German side due to the resulting expulsions in '45 and '46. And if your family was expelled from the Sudetenland or Upper Silesia...well, there are probably some pretty severe xenophobic tendencies there. Generally, though, the Poles are seen as completely foreign creatures that are not understood whatsoever by the Germans, but "they'll do" as craftsmen for jobs that don't have to be tooooo precise if in a pinch if the Bavarians or Schwaben can't find a time; while the Czechs are seen as sturdy, independent, rational neighbors who really don't cause any heartburn and generally stick to themselves - and people who share that most important of traditions...good beer. Then you have the former Yugoslavian countries, all of whom are just generally referred to as "Yugoslavians" between Germans. Except for the Kosovars. Those are called "Albanians". The "Yugoslavians" are the favorite for sure (outside of the Albanians/Kosovars)...they are integrated and just kinda part of the culture here. Germans see them much more as "our slavs", particularly the Croats, which, of course goes back to less than savory history. And then you have "the Russians", which are basically everyone else. Bulgarian? Ehhhh, Russian. Ukrainian? Russian. Belarusian? Russian. Russian? Russian. Georgian? Not slavs...but nevertheless, Russians. Moldova? Yeah, why not...Russians. Romanians are "Romanians", as they are only referred to when it comes to discussing massive corruption within the EU, which apparently the Germans feel is so bad that it deserves its own special "non-Slavic" treatment. But the "Russians"...yeah, as you said, that's just an obscure soccer match on an unkempt pitch somewhere "over there". And you are dead on in your analysis: The flow chart is: IS RUSSIAN GAS FLOWING THROUGH YAMAL AND NS1? Yes --> ARE HORDES OF PEOPLE USING CYRILLIC ALPHABET AND WEARING ADIDAS TRACK SUITS HEADING OUR WAY? No = Then whatever is clever. Re Turkey...man, I can't figure out what Erdogan is up to. That dude has so much wild shit going on all over the place, making heads or tails of what he's going to pull is a fool's errand. I think the only thing that we can count on is that he will, in fact, pull something. Obviously, the Lira is all kinds of fucked up and he is charting this "brave new world" with respect to the pressure he is putting on his central bank. He also has this new goofy EEZ maritime beef with the Greeks, he has one foot in bed with the Iranians, and he has Europe by the balls wrt migration from the region, but in turn, Putin has Erdogan by the balls wrt migration due to his leverage in turning on the spigot in Idlib. He sold the Ukrainians Bayraktar drones, which had a lot of success against Russian ground systems in the whole Azerbaijan deal, which the Ukrainians used in Donbass recently, infuriating the Russians. Of course, he has to deal with the Russians to some degree in Syria, so he is certainly susceptible to pressure by Putin and would also greatly benefit by cutting a deal with them. That is a big deal at the moment. Turkey is a long way from anything resembling stability and Putin could very easily create refugee flows out of NW Syria, which would be a disaster for Erdogan domestically. People are already restless there due to the inflation and his entire domestic pitch re Syria is that his involvement is to fuck up the Kurds/potential Kurdistan AND create a "safe place" for the Syrian migrants to return. His base expects Syrians to be heading back eventually, not to be getting fresh arrivals. Russia also has Turkey by the balls re energy and Turkstream gives Putin a ton of leverage there as well. If I was a betting man, I would bet that he cuts a deal with Putin re Idlib in exchange for staying out of Ukraine. Putin has tolerated deviations in their geopolitical interests to date, but this whole drone sale to Ukraine really pissed Putin off. Erdogan, if nothing else is a wiley Turkish negotiator and he knows that Ukraine is the "third rail" with the Russians. Nothing the Russians could gain in Syria...Tartus, Latakia, etc. comes even close to Ukraine for Putin. So I think Erdogan will leverage that fact to get a much better position in Idlib. Putin has essentially free rein wrt Assad, and Assad knows that without Putin, all of those gains over the past five years will go up in smoke. So I think Putin and Erdogan will have an intense negotiation that will result in concessions beyond just Ukraine/Syria (perhaps Russian political support on the Greek maritime issue and/or wrt the Kurdish issue in the form of de facto annexation of Erdogan's dream strip in the north?), but will eventually come to an agreement where Russia - to the extent possible in light of the conflict - respects the spots within Ukraine that Turkey has invested large sums (which are significant) and gives him room to maneuver in Idlib, in exchange for Turkey staying out of the conflict AND refraining from playing any games arising out of Turkey's rights under Montreaux. Re the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone...your point is honestly the first that I have ever even thought about that. I know for sure it hasn't come up in any major outlets here, but gotdamn that is a good point. Shit could get real weird with that. But that brings me to another larger observation that I don't feel is being addressed enough in the talking class: The complete lack of domestic, internal stability of basically everyone involved in this entire ordeal, outside of Russia, ranging from the EU to the Turks to Germany to Ukraine itself. I'll spoiler out of respect to the board:
  2. Shady Ray

    Russia

    I agree with a lot of what was said in the thread that you cited, particularly the elements pointing to this extending far beyond Putin and into a full-on component of the Russian psyche. This goes back far, far beyond current leadership and is embedded in their worldview. Of course, Vlad exploits this unreservedly. Thanks for sharing this. But I don't agree at all that Western Europeans are distracted by/"appeasement-prone" wrt Putin/Russian threats, which seems to be the position of so much of the western media...as though this is some "Chamberlain in Munich" moment. Every sovereign entity evaluates its own risks and rewards of esclation. The French and Germans and Italians etc. would support military involvement against Russia in response to any aggression towards EXISTING NATO members in two seconds flat. But the powers that be and the electorate here do not believe that Russia has revanchist designs on anything outside of securing a continued disfunctional/neutral Ukraine. They could be right or they could be wrong, but it is their position nevertheless, and that is what guides policy here re Russia. This over-simplified, "made-for-American-audience" take completely discards Western Europe's own legitimate interests, history, and future objectives with respect to Russia. It basically boils down this entire complex and VERY nuanced situation (one that has huge risks to Europe as a whole) to some "Freedom NATO vs. Evil Russia" narrative to which very few in Western Europe subscribe, yet is so pervasive in US media circles, regardless of whether one resides on the American political left or right. Western Europe's position is not the same as that of the US, and at some point, the US will hopefully understand that European leaders cannot approach this from the same perspective as some talking head sitting there drawing a nice paycheck in Northern Virginia can. I will expand on this, but spoiler out of respect for those not inclined to sift through my bullshit, er, I mean verbosity:
  3. Shady Ray

    Russia

    That is a good point. Both 1 and 2, of course. I honestly think Merkel got out over here skis on that and just never figured out how to walk it back. However, the SPD is not (at least not publicly) supporting the Green's push to extend the anti-nuke delusion Europe-wide and politics being what they are, the Greens are being set up to be the ones left holding the bag on this optically. I heard about it all day with family over yesterday and today's Christmas festivities - well-educated mix of traditional SPD and Bavarian CSU voters - "well, the damn Greens are gonna fuck us on this energy issue." So, that said, be prepared...Annalena may come to you looking for comfort soon if Olaf and Lindner follow through on scapegoating her.
  4. Thanks for this. Great post. In the event that Russia does invade, which I still don't believe they have decided yet, the bridge laying is critical is to determining their intent, IMO. Conventional wisdom is that getting to the Dnieper won’t cost them that much. They will immediately fuck up the Ukrainian Air Force, which is legitimately pathetic, and after that it is a matter of taking control of the air and raining hell from the sky before moving forward. Admittedly, I am an idiot when it comes to military tech, but I don't think the initial push is gonna cost Russia itself (not including the L/DPR forces) too terribly much, relatively speaking. But after that, the question is whether they go on across the Dnieper. I don't think they would. As a complimentary piece to what you posted, I cannot recommend the below analysis enough. And @InkaUtexas I think you and your dad would particularly enjoy it. It is a long-ass read, but I found it really well-reasoned and informative. It covers the brass tacks of what an invasion might look like given what we know now. It addresses what the existing models predict re casualties, timeframe from invasion to collapse, as well as the various military/geostrategic options that the belligerents would likely face along the way. It ends with a bit of political analysis - which I think is quite accurate - but the bulk of it is focused on the actual “strategery” of a Russian invasion. As an aside, bne INTELLINEWS is a great source that stays away from bullshit partisanship with respect to European geopolitics and I can say that we use them professionally on other matters that impact our industry. Long story short, their position is consistent with CW that Russia can get to the Dnieper working from the east towards the SW out of Donbass pretty efficiently…should they cross and move beyond that, shit will get really hairy real quick. https://intellinews.com/long-read-russia-looks-poised-to-invade-ukraine-but-what-would-an-invasion-actually-look-like-227987/?source=ukraine
  5. Shady Ray

    Russia

    While the foreign-policy chatterati in the English-speaking world wonders aloud why the Western Europeans have no desire to fully support the leadership in Ukraine in a militarized conflict, the NY Times finally publishes what the Europeans have known for quite some time about the competency of potential war-time leadership in Ukraine. I can only imagine that Zelensky has pissed off the American foreign policy establishment off something fierce, as this has been about the fifth article in highly-connected English-language media in the last two days calling into question his competency and seriousness: Just some highlights from the NYT, but the whole thing calls into question his competency to undertake such a sensitive endeavor: ——— Also, Germany going it alone directly with Russia, with new Chancellor Scholz pulling a "Merkel" and running foreign policy direct from the Chancellry, bypassing the Foreign Ministry, thus cutting out previously-mentioned new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who has had a hell of a few weeks pissing off half of Europe, most noticably the French:
  6. Roasted goose, Knödel, Blaukraut, Erdinger Weißbier.
  7. Shady Ray

    Russia

    Waiting for the wife to get her ass moving for the day so we can get this Christmas goose going, so I figured there was no better way to spend a rainy Christmas morning in Munich than to bitch about Ukrainian leadership :- ). Was a hell of a time getting a bird this year...not sure what the deal was, but it took about 5 trips around town to find one. 6 KG bird was all we could find, so its going to be goose for days. Merry Christmas to you, as well. And same to the rest of the thread...enjoyed all the insights on this one over the year and I have a feeling this will be an active thread come 2022.
  8. Shady Ray

    Russia

    You know what would really serve Ukraine well right about now...internal political prosecutions of other pro-Western opposition party leaders, that's what. Frow WaPo: ----- "KYIV, Ukraine — With an estimated 100,000 Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s eastern border, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has chosen this moment to pick internal battles — an approach that risks dividing the country amid what Western officials warn could be a full-scale military attack by Moscow. Zelensky is focusing on two of Ukraine’s most powerful men: Rinat Akhmetov, a metals and media mogul whose total wealth Forbes Magazine estimates to be around $7 billion, and Petro Poroshenko, the billionaire former president whom Zelensky defeated in 2019. Analysts say Zelensky, whose popularity has slumped since he swept to commanding victory in Ukraine’s presidential election two years ago, could be making a populist play. But he risks presenting a disorganized image of Ukraine to an international community contemplating aid for the country to counter this latest escalation with Russia. Western officials are privately expressing bafflement that the Ukrainian public has largely shrugged off the threat of an invasion from Russia — in contrast to the alarm expressed by the United States and Europe. ... “Unfortunately, this is a really dangerous step,” said Yevhen Magda, an analyst at the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv. “Given the real threat of Russian invasion, looking for enemies inside the country is not the best way. Russia can only applaud any destabilization.” ----- I am not saying Poroshenko is innocent here or not - and as a Ukrainian politician in general, he is thoroughly corrupt - but what I am saying is that he was a post-Maidan, legitimately-elected, former head of state, who ran on a pro-western/pro-EU platform, who is also currently Zelensky's biggest electoral competition. Zelensky filed charges while he was out of the country visiting that, uh, "hotbed of pro-Russian activity", Warsaw. However, I am sure it has noooooothing to do with Zelensky's current polling in relation to Poroshenko. Zelensky is green (SN), Poroshenko is royal blue (ES): As I said earlier, the leadership in Ukraine is a fucking joke. Paywalled, so full article below.
  9. Shady Ray

    Russia

    The Establishment has spoken:
  10. Shady Ray

    Russia

    I have been thinking about this, as well, and I am not sure that he takes or occupies anything, as Russians have zero appetite for absorbing Donbas, as opposed to their overwhelming support of the annexation of Crimea. Hell, taking Crimea was so popular internally that even Navalny said he wouldn't return it. But bodybags coming home from a worthless area of fuckin' Ukraine would quickly erode his position. But I do think that he is fully prepared to fuck Ukraine's shit up something fierce and leave it a condition where it essentially breaks the country sending it into full-blown intra-Ukrainian meltdown, which I believe it would. People look at the strength and structural reslillience in Ukraine through rose-colored lenses in the West. It is not in good shape by any metric and it would not take much to send it from its current awful state to complete collapse and chaos internally. The country is not particularly cohesive and does suffer from decades and decades of corruption and ethnic strife. Putin knows this and I would not be surprised if his secondary objective if he doesn't gain concessions from the US as to European security structure is just to say, "fuck it...destroy it then and let Europe deal with the fallout". To me, that makes much more sense than the risk/expenditure of political capital required to invade and annex. At the end, he knows that a failed Ukrainian state has no chance of entering the EU or NATO anytime soon and he would have at least bought himself years before dealing with the issue again. Not married to this idea, but its as good as my spitballing can get at the moment. As to whether the EU will defend Ukraine...not a snowball's chance. IMO, most EU nationals - at least in Western Europe would support shit going hot with Russia if Russia touched a NATO member, because they value the idea of NATO...but they would not for Ukraine. Basically, Berlin and Paris would risk an attack by Moscow on behalf of defending Warsaw...they won't for Kiev, and every politician knows that stepping in militarily against Russia may very easily result in a situation where they have to address their electorate from a smoldering pile of rubble and defend their entry into what is seen by many - rightly or wrongly - as an intra-slavic historical conflict having nothing to do with us. And while it may be unpopular to state in public or in diplomatic statements, but this position against military interventiion in France and Germany is not just about Russia…it is also about a general indifference (and for many here, a distaste - even within the urban, professional pro-EU/Atlanticist class) for the current Ukrainian state itself. Ukraine is portrayed in the US media as a promising democracy full of democratic politicians with some semblance of the structural elements required to efficiently integrate into the “European fold” with just a little TLC from Brussels…as though it is analogous to Czechia or Poland or Slovenia at the time of their respective entries into the EU/NATO. Unfortunately, that is a very naive and oversimplified portrayal. In my opinion, Ukraine makes the pre-accession conditions of Romania and Bulgaria, which were (and remain) very difficult for the EU for years, look like integrating Luxembourg by comparison to what we would face with Ukraine. "Ukraine-Fatigue" is a very real-thing here in Germany (and in France), where the country is seen essentially as a borderline-failed state with all of the same problems that Russia has, only with volatile internal politics which produce puppets/corrupted/incompetent heads of state instead of a fixed autocrat like Putin. It is completely dysfunctional even outside of its issues with Russia, burdened with xenophobic attitudes by some powerful people on all respective sides(which are endlessly exploited and exagerrated by Putin, but neverthless seen and reported on as a real concern here). It is thoroughly corrupted by shady oligarchs, chronically insolvent despite billions of EU direct-cash infusions, and completely mismanaged with infrastructure decrepitness that rivals even their eternal-basketcase neighbor, Moldova. It is filled with less-than desirable elements in positions of influence - and that goes for both sides of the Dnieper. And as I mentioned on a previous post in this thread, the desire of German Industry/Politicians to move ahead with NS2 is not only about securing a steady and affordable fuel supply (which it is, of course), it is also about reducing the endless headaches that come along with dealing with Ukraine as a transit state. Decrepit pipeline infrastructure and unreliable supply through Ukraine have been a long-held irritation by German Industry and no amount of contributed funds (even when specifically earmarked for such purposes year after year) or pressure has helped to resolve this. Ukraine is a black-hole with respect to EU direct aid and even the EU technocrats are tired of the games over there. In short, Ukraine is the child that only Uncle Sam loves. It's support elsewhere in Europe is directly proportionate to the self-interests of a given nation at a given time. So, while pure economic interests should not necessarily determine Europe's willingness to defend Ukraine militarily, the truth of the matter is that they do, and I just can't see the average Western European government backing sending troops to defend it given the baggage that it has. Any military defense would immediately open the door to nationalist politicians making political hay over what would be an ugly, ugly situation. Macron couldn't afford it given his upcoming election next year, which is already proving to be an election fought on the right, and the declining AfD would immediately start to tick back up again here in Germany. So I just don't see it happening. Way too much downside defending a place that isn't particularly sympathetic behind closed boardroom and residential doors.
  11. Dialed into a call early this AM only to have a colleague in Beijing mention this. She told me that she had seen it in one of the most prestigious publications in Europe (der Spiegel), which was running on the news-ticker of our corporate intranet, which happens to be the corporate intranet of one of Germany's oldest publicly traded companies. So yeah, this has gone global and it is embarassing. And people wonder why Europe doesn't blindly follow us anymore. https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bildung/sioux-falls-lehrer-kriechen-fuer-5000-dollar-ueber-den-boden-kritik-an-gewinnspiel-a-d9c26dd9-84ab-489e-b77e-300e440ee3cc Lehrer kämpfen auf Knien um 1-Dollar-Scheine - für ihre Schüler (Teachers fight for dollar bills on their knees...for their students)
  12. Gotttdammm. Turkish food in Germany is amazing, but Turkish in Berlin is next level even by German standards. You, good sir, are doing this trip right.
  13. This something I often think about: Do we have the ability as a society to turn the ship around and engage in some form of constructive national dialogue anymore, or are we too polarized/convinced of our own righteousness for that? Because I see that as critical to the future security/success of the US. If we cannot learn to do that again, we will not be able to collectively survive the inevitable challenges that are coming ahead in a world where our global standing/position is challenged. Over the past couple of years I have gotten into watching old talk shows from before my day, such as the Dick Cavett Show, Firing Line, etc. One thing that always strikes me is the complete degradation of discourse (and intelligence) in the public forum of today when compared to that era. Even topics that would have generally been unpopular with the general electorate at the time were still discussed thoughtfully and their advocates - were treated respectfully and at least listened to. The audience genuinely seemed to be there to consume a rational discussion, not to simply consume low-hanging political "red meat" thrown to them by the host excoriating those on the other side of the aisle. And I know it wasn't all sunshine and roses in that era by any means (see Buckley vs. Gore Vidal ha!), but strictly with respect to "thought leaders" and media treatment of ideological adversaries, there is no comparison. Just for reference, Dick Cavett speaking with Brando about Native American rights/portrayal in popular culture and William F. Buckley interviewing Muhammad Ali discussing the Race and the Nation of Islam. It is so refreshing, but at the same time, it is so sad to see the depths that we have fallen wrt to public discourse. None of these type of interactions would be possible today. It wouldn't get enough ratings and the masses would not be able to sit down and simply listen for such an extended period of time. And while there are so many contributing factors as to why we are in the state we are in wrt to discourse, I personally lay much of the blame at the feet of a 24-hour news cycle that found out early on that monetizing outrage was a winning business formula. I genuinely hope that we can get away from that for our own collective sake.
  14. LOL. I definitely get the sentiment. But the French of course have a great military and- more importantly - they have nukes, which is a huge deal because the Germans are terrified of going nuclear in any way for internal Kraut past-life traumatic reasons. But they know that a nuclear umbrella is important, but not necessarily one attached to the US at the moment. Hell, the winners of the recent elections want US nukes off German territory, which will be an interesting topic to follow as the new government gets to work. As I mentioned, the US-driven NATO position here is more tenuous than the media in the US tends to acknowledge. In the past week, the new coalition government has kinda "yada yada yada'd" the nuclear topic and given some mild assurances that they still want to be part of the "NATO team", but the point remains that the two biggest electoral winners here of the September election campaigned aggressively on "No More US Nukes on German Soil." And two of the three are fairly adamant that they want more EU control over military policy, with the Greens being a bit more flexible to NATO (sans US nukes), oddly enough. That, of course, leads to a very tricky situation as moving them to Poland or Romania will only serve to ratchet up tensions at a time when they need to be ratcheted down. Either way, popular sentiment is towards a reformation of NATO, at the very minimum. In my professional capacity, I spend a lot of time in Brussels managing regulatory matters in a highly-regulated area of commerce for a German company. While I don't deal directly with anything touching German security policy/foreign relations, I do know a ton of people who do. The opinion that I hear in those circles is that the new generation of German decision-makers feel much more comfortable sharing the drivers seat wrt to matters of defense with the French than they do sitting in the backseat of a car driven by the US. The question will be whether that changes after this Russia situation settles down and the Afghanistan debacle is further in the rear-view. But nevertheless, ask yourself this...you think the new SPD German Minister of Defense looks like she is down for war? Anyway, here is the latest on what to expect on foreign policy from the new government: https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-germany-chancellor-frozen-foreign-policy/
  15. Yep. And a smart move, IMO. Any action over there must not been seen here as a decision by the US pushed onto NATO without involving European leadership (and Stoltenberg doesn't count for these purposes). While yes, this is a matter of global importance, it is also in our backyard and it is likely to spill over here in ways that the average American doesn't consider when looking at it through a strictly US lens. So it is good policy to involve leaders here, IMO. In the countries that de-facto run the EU - so, Germany and France - this is a risky time for NATO, given current attitudes towards the scattershot detours NATO has taken in other regions (see Libya, Afghanistan, etc.). Europe is finally recognizing how deficient its collective military capacity is, and it is realizing that it may be time for a change in how it approaches this beyond simply relying on the US, which is increasingly seen as erratic and intrusive to EU interests (i.e. AUKUS submarine type shit). The are calling it "strategic autonomy" in the media as of late. In fact, every single element of Germany’s new coalition government campaigned on a decisive move towards the establishment of an EU Army, separate from (although, as they say as a bone to Washington, “interoperable with”) NATO. This has long been a French pet project. Well, now it is slowly becoming a German one, as well...at least in the sense that German politicians are openly discussing it for the first time in the course of campaigns. Which means it is going to be an EU project eventually…albeit the speed that Brussels moves can certainly be mindnumbingly slow. But the point is, the momentum is picking up and with the new German government, there is an increased willingness to see the French as the standard-bearer for military matters, with the Germans the leader of the economic wing. And the French want this EU Army idea to move ahead. Making this a true joint endeavour, both diplomatically and militarily, will take a lot of wind from the anti-NATO crowd if shit kicks off. Alternatively, if Western Europe feels like it was dragged into a military conflict over there, it will accelerate new security policies if shit goes sideways, IMO.
  16. I will give you that. She truly is the best looking of the German national politicians, so the tallest midg- er...little person. Just be glad you don't have to hear that accent regularly...gotttttdammmn that thing is rough, even by German standards.
  17. Yeah, Germany doesn't take Foreign Affairs seriously whatsoever, as evidenced by the fact that Annalena Baerbock, a 40 year-old two-term congresswoman from Brandenberg with virtually no experience whatsoever in foreign policy was just named Foreign Minister here. Lavrov will eat her alive. But hey, she led the Greens to 14% of the vote as a candidate for Chancellor, so I guess that qualifies her to lead foreign policy strategy for the leading power in Europe in the eyes of the German people.
  18. Edit...looks like you beat me to it. Sucks man...I am sure you will be able to salvage something enjoyable, you just might have to search a little harder.
  19. Deleted because I am a double posting idiot.
  20. Yeah. Shit is absolutely borked. I have responsibilities for a subsidiary site in Ulm, which is in halfway between Stuttgart and Munich, and we are basically shutting the entire thing down outside of essential operations effective Monday. It’s gone from bad to worse over the past 10 days. One of the issues is that we are essentially without a federal government. Merkel and her CDU is in caretaker mode while the SPD, Greens and FDP iron out their coalition agreement, so essentially the entire place is dependent on state and local authorities. Perfect storm type shit.
  21. So, we went in for the scan at the Women’s Hospital here in Munich this morning and some kraut at the door said, “women only…you gotta wait outside. Covid regulations”. So I did. For fucking 2.5 hours…all the while she had absolutely no cell phone service in the hospital. Was a wasteland of communication until I saw her pop out of the front door. Plus…the hospital is literally across the street from one of Munich’s oldest and best neighborhood Bier Gartens, The Taxisgarten, which was closed at the time. And ol’ Shady Ray could have used their hospitality with a 10 AM helles about that time. But all that BS aside and as unfortunate as it was that I didn’t get to experience the first ultrasound (and given our current Covid numbers in Bavaria, I won’t experience any of the others), scan went great. She is exactly as far along as she thought, things are positioned well, and the heartbeat was rockin’, so I am hoping that this old man is going to join your ranks next summer.
  22. We are heading in for our initial ultrasound tomorrow. Wife is German, so therefore very solid in her record-keeping abilities, so we should be about 8 weeks in. To be precise, the math says that this child would be the result of post-UT-Pig anger fucking, so odds are it will burn with the heat of a million Burnt Orange suns. She took those digital tests that say what date range she is, and she has continued to increase each week over the last month. I am 42 and she is 39, and we weren’t planning on ever having kids, so the last few weeks have been a total recalibration of our perspectives on life. We agreed that this unanticipated development would be our only attempt. We are both very busy with our careers and we are pretty set in our ways, so we agreed this will be our one and only “swing for the fences”. We are ready to totally deconstruct our lives to give this a chance, but we aren’t prepared to pursue it beyond this with things like future attempts, IVF or adoption. That said, I can’t lie…I am excited over the possibility and, of course, a bit anxious, so I really hope this goes well. That said, wish us luck.
  23. Yeah, you are right. Berchtesgaden is a complete shit show at the moment. As well as a couple of other tourist hotspots in Southern Bavaria.
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