This is good analysis, very helpful. But as others have pointed out, it doesn't tell the whole story. My first thoughts are (1) who is Shough throwing to vs. who is Ewers throwing to? I assume that Texas had a significant advantage in the receiver department over Louisville. (2) Who is blocking for these guys and what does their run game look like? It's easier to complete passes when the threat of a run game is holding the defense back, or when the o-line can give the QB more time. Not sure who has the edge here overall, but I'm fairly confident that Texas has the better o-line. (3) What defenses are they going up against? Not to indulge the SEC circlejerk, but I'm pretty sure SEC defenses are going to make a QB look worse than he does against ACC defenses.
I just don't think there's a meaningful system for parsing through these data points. Statistics require context, and context relies on overall picture. You can explain away bad numbers and argue why those numbers are the real story depending on whatever your bias happens to be. It's still a useful endeavor, but I just don't think there are definitive answers to be gleaned from stats and narrative alone.
For my money, this is the biggest reason why Ewers dropped to the 7th round. He's not a day one QB. Arguably not even a day two QB, although I think reasonable minds can differ. This is where the data- and narrative-driven arguments come into play. Is he a third round guy, or do you wait to see if he's still available tomorrow? But even if teams are using stats and context to argue about whether Ewers is a third round guy or a fifth round guy, none of them are going to be comfortable with his injury history. He has a slight build and does not weather injuries well. To be clear, I think the kid is nails. I think it's beyond question that he is tough. He is willing to play hurt. But that doesn't mean much when playing hurt dramatically limits him and lowers the quality of his play. What good is your backup QB if he is constantly at risk of being injured? I'd rather take a guy who more limited in terms of ability but is built like a tank for my back up, because at least I know I'll have someone to put on the field.
Finally - here's a couple of Quinn gifs that I think are pertinent to this issue, both from the Michigan game. I'm not the best football mind on this board, which is already a low bar, so please understand that this is just my amateur interpretation:
This was our first "third and long" as we tried to get in gear. It's a pure drop back where Ewers has a clean pocket. He throws off his front foot (good), but is hopping around with those goddamn happy feet (bad). The WR (Bond) is right where he needs to be in between defenders. The throw is, frankly, not great. He throws the ball late, leads Bond by too much, and does not anticipate the safety coming over in coverage. It's fine by college standards, but this gets picked off 9/10 in the NFL. This is back from when Bond still gave a shit and he makes a great play athletically - this reception is more about Bond than it is about Ewers.
Statistically, this gets logged as a intermediate / deep completion. Yay Quinn. But context shows that this was not a great throw, especially considering how clean the pocket was and how good our WR are. If I'm an NFL scout, this play makes me way more interested in the right side of our OL and our WR than it does our QB. Next -
This is the TD we scored on a fast drive just before half. It's almost the polar opposite of the gif I posted above. Ewers is rolling out, several defenders coming free off the line and in pursuit. The play is fast and tight by design, with Golden being the only real target and only in the front corner of the end zone. There are defenders moving into coverage as Ewers throw the ball, just in time and in just the right spot, all while on the move. Ewers puts it where no one except Golden can catch the ball. And he does all of this while running. Golden runs a solid route, but it is nothing special. He hits his marks and catches the ball, but the play is made by Ewers.
This will only get logged as a 5-yard completion, but the play itself is impressive. If I'm an NFL scout, I see this is where Ewers shines. Off platform throws, close to the line, that require perfect touch rather than power. That's a rare skill and the kind of play that draws comparisons to Mahomes (note, I'm not saying that Ewers is as good as Mahomes, just that this is a Mahomes-ian play).
But Ewers can't make these kinds of plays if he's injured. On the move, throwing across his body, when timing and accuracy really matter? No, not with an injured oblique. He can't get enough zip on the ball with just his arms. So he can't do the things he does best when he's injured, and you're left with the rest of Ewers' game. And the rest of Ewers' game is limited. Not garbage and certainly not a liability, but limited.
If I'm an NFL scout, the things I like best about Ewers are the things he can't do for most of the season, because he keeps getting hurt. So I won't take a risk on him when there are other options on the table.
Disclaimer: I post on here for the enjoyable discussion and to learn. If you think I've missed something or disagree with my interpretation of the film, and welcome the feedback. I'm not interested in joining the ongoing flamewar, however, and will probably not respond to bad faith assholes.