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clapclapclap

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Everything posted by clapclapclap

  1. Another thought, FOX probably wants to get into the South big time. We know Jim Delaney and the B1G spent a lot of time looking to get into the Southeast. For the B1G it seems to be more of a long term strategy, but positioning to take advantage should certain situations occur. Both the SEC and B1G have seemed to prefer small additions at a time, so as not to impact their conference's balance and culture too much. FOX, OTOH, would probably prefer a big move now and a breakaway, hence likely urging the B1G to consider non-AAU big brands like Clemson, FSU, and maybe Miami, VT, or even TCU. If FOX wins the argument, that could be bad news for perhaps even WA and OR. Look at the demographics, the South has higher population states with a higher percentage of college football fans and higher fan intensity. FL - 22 million population GA & NC - 10 mil each VA - 8.5 mil SC - 5 mil --- WA - 7.5 mil AZ - 7 mil CO - almost 6 mil OR - 4 mil UT - 3 mil CA - 39 mil, but FOX already has most of that with USC & UCLA --- TX is now 30 mil, so if the B1G and SEC do breakaway, then FOX has strong incentive to add a beachhead school, even if an investment like TCU. As to the other B12 states, OK is just 4 mil, KS & Iowa 3 mil each, WV under 2 mil. Brands are increasingly important for this round of expansion, but FOX sources and the former head of ESPN all say that markets and local/in-state rates for cable/sat providers still matter, especially with the BTN, SECNet, and ACCNet. Thus population matters. So you can see that perhaps all the west schools could be in as much danger for exclusion as the B12 schools. Bigger pop and higher cfb interest/intensity makes VA & NC better states for FOX than WA. Despite Oregon's strong brand, the state is smaller than South Carolina, and SC is growing faster so the gap will widen. Clemson a better add than OR. UNC + UVA may be more lucrative than UW + OR. Miami may value out better than OR, maybe even TCU. Depends on how FOX weighs brand/market/in-state rates. If the B1G can get ND + 3 ACC soon, then the SEC likely adds 4 and expansion for the 2 giants may be done. I could see 7 ACC schools loosely cooperating through their donor networks to make sure they + ND have invites so they can simultaneously vote to end the GOR. Easier for the B1G to integrate 6 (USC/UCLA/ND + 3 ACC) in the next few years than 10. WA & OR may need to hope an early ACC exit (beyond ND) doesn't happen, or ND insists on adding Stanford. The latter probably requires FOXb1g to go to 24 schools or leave the ACC alone for years (I can't see the SEC taking more than 4 ACC schools, so b1g might have to take 3 beyond ND to get enough movement to vote out the ACC GOR).
  2. Just to clarify a couple of points: The ACC adding teams doesn't open their GOR in a way that current schools could then leave. Schools can get out of the GOR if more than half choose to leave. These were confirmed by an ESPN writer whose tweets were probably posted earlier. He argues that it doesn't matter because the cost to leave could be over $400 mil per school and 8 ACC schools aren't finding a home elsewhere . However others have argued that the cost might be negotiated to a much lower amount, and plausible scenarios exist where FOXb1g takes ND + 3 and the SEC gets 4 (or even FOXb1g getting ND +5 and SEC taking a VA and an NC school). Plausible is not the same as 'will' or 'likely', but if FOX wants to pay to get their semi-pro league, it can happen. They don't need all the inventory that ESPN does, so they can focus more on a national 20 to 24 school B1G. ESPN has a vested interest in keeping things as is (as much as possible). I don't expect any more major schools moving the rest of the year, but it is possible. @ADavidHaleJoint ...Writes about the pompatoose sports for ESPN. david.hale@espn.com Journalist Charlotte, NC
  3. ND's Swarbrick came out of a recent ACC meeting and said something about their being 2 emerging poles, the SEC and B1G, and schools better gravitate towards one or the other. Now that could be a hardball negotiating strategy with tv bidders for ND's rights, or it could be telling. One of ND's big concerns with the B1G, and one of the reasons it aligned with the ACC, is the lack of private schools in the B1G. So an expansion strategy of adding Stanford, Miami, TCU, and maybe even GT could alleviate some of that. ND may want enough added and the conference rules changed so that all the privates could block a vote. Everything I've read so far on the TCU possibility is that it only happens if ND joins. The greatly reduced non-conf schedule and the Navy commitment could be somewhat mitigated with certain additions. TCU and Miami could be attractive in that ND could continue to play in those states relatively frequently. Texas has 8 million Catholics, and while I'm sure they'd rather play us, playing TCU in Texas every few years could be sufficient for their needs. Heck, might even be every other year if in a pod of Stanford, UCLA, USC, and OR/WA. And TCU would surely be willing to do home games with ND in Houston, San Antonio, and Jerry World if it gets them into the B1G. Fox seems to be trying to get the B1G to go with a pro style expansion strategy of planting flags in new big states/markets. If there are only 2 top tier/broken away conferences, there's some additional benefit to making sure there's a franchise in the 2nd most populous state, that can be grown when the 6 state schools participating are reduced to 3. Hence why the argument of, "They're small, don't fully carry DFW, and thus aren't worth the $100 million to justify adding" may not apply. And TCU would likely take a very reduced share for years in exchange for the safety lifeline. And we can add the probably a nonfactor argument that one of Swarbrick's kid went to TCU. One possibility is going to 20 with ND, Stanford, OR/WA, and TCU, then waiting for ACC schools. Or maybe go to 24 soon if ACC schools try to bolt. Tug of war with the SEC for UNC, UVA, maybe even Clemson, FSU, or Miami. Miami doesn't add value to the SEC other than if they can lock the B1G out of Florida, or for the unlikely lure of ND. I'm guessing FSU/Clem/UNC/UVA ultimately choose the SEC (recruiting, travel, locational dominance), so we could see the B1G choosing 4 of Miami/VT/Duke/GT/WA. I do think Fox is pushing for a B1G endgame of 24 (maybe 28 max).
  4. Could be, maybe probably. Or could be the butt cover of, "See, Mr. Lawyers, we didn't approach those teams and had no intention of expanding. But when opportunity knocked..."
  5. Or, you know, Musk might be correct about the bots: https://twitter.com/Most_Maximus/status/1546332694547767296
  6. If someone gets injured he could be named an All Star alternate.
  7. I wanna see that animation start a bench clearing brawl.
  8. Yep, play of the day. Lunch is t-boned.
  9. I thought UCLA joined the B1G not the NL. Also, Apple can burn in hell for forcing Beth Mowins on us.
  10. Ump slipped cuz Al Davis watered the field again.
  11. Takes a mile to stop a freight train like Yordan.
  12. Hope the dugout is talking crap to Laureano. Charge us again!
  13. LOL, their stadium announcer is terrible.
  14. Finishing off a bottle water.
  15. I wonder how much of WSU's numbers can be attributed to Leach? I'd like to see the breakdown of 2021 vs the 2015-2019 average in Andy Staples' data. His article also confirms that getting a conference channel into a new state/local market and the jump in rates is still an important factor, just not quite as big as before. Obviously these tv number articles have to be looked at with a squinty eye, because of so many factors. I wouldn't get hung up on a few digits difference in schools, but breaking them into quarters is somewhat revealing. Better than many expected for WSU, Colorado, and Baylor, but not so great for ISU, and really bad for GT, Duke, Oregon St, KSU, and Kansas. Factoring in channels and conferences, it also suggests UH in the B12 may end up outperforming Tceh in TV ratings.
  16. I've always hated the fan voting giving a huge advantage to the biggest markets, so way past time to level the playing field. MLB could limit it with something like each team gets to hand out a cumulative total of 200,000 ballots during their final 7 home games at the end of June and first week of July. (And no, I don't think that would change the outcome of Ohtani/Yordan.) Thankfully it's just a game so it doesn't really matter, but growing up a fan of what was then a small market team, the unfairness always stuck in my craw.
  17. I love that Dusty doesn't love Tony La Russa.
  18. What the hell is wrong with you? Reported!
  19. Another good day for Neilson Powless. I can see why Beano Cook predicted he'd win 2 TdF's.
  20. I guess they don't wait hours while they scrub the social media over there.
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