OCC match ups, SEC won't get 6 (deserves 7), conf championship games are a wildcard (don't want to disincentivize them (yet), so Texas is in a bit of a pinch. so even with the argument for OCC match ups, Texas loses on the following two motivations, so mayhem is required. there is the "list of games" to watch, but what is most likely, therefore the real games to watch...
11:00 am
Ohio State to beat #15 Michigan
Pitt to beat #12 Miami
Noon
UCF to beat #11 BYU
2:30 pm
replace with Tech beats BYU in the Big 12 title game
LSU to beat #8 Oklahoma
Not happening
Tennessee to beat #14 Vanderbilt
6:30 pm
Auburn to beat #10 Alabama
9:30 pm
Stanford to beat #9 Notre Dame
not happening
Mandatory losers needed: Michigan, Vandy, Miami, Bama, and BYU (this week or next). We are dead in the water without those five. We will jump Utah. We are at 12 with realistic outcomes today (jump Utah), Vandy and Michigan lose.
So taking the odds of what should happen, it's Miami, BYU and Alabama that shouldn't lose but we need them to.