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Posted
1 hour ago, wood said:

Can anyone explain to me how they have a top 25 SOS with their shitty schedule? 

It's just bizarro world.

Oh, and Fuck aggy.

Stupid SOS calculations, at the level relevant to the playoffs top end SOS is the only thing that matters, they are 1-0 vs other playoff teams, but the rest has been just beating bad teams. Texas lost to one of those bad teams though.

  • Rage+1 1
Posted
Fuck aggy.  But their offense will absolutely give our back 7 fits.  Our secondary is just butthole.  Absolute butthole.    If our offense can sustain us (can’t believe we flipped course) then we have a shot. But arky moved with ease. I mean ease  and that little midget Reed is shifty (no offense to midgets) 
Reed is a beanpole for sure, but nobody above 6 feet tall meets midget requirements.

He's just shifty enough to avoid the direct hits that would shatter his thin bones. That's how he manages to be a durable running QB in spite of being on the thinner side
Posted
1 hour ago, texasdago said:

First off, AI sucks...  

image.png.8170aea5620b4887396e858b567bfb2b.png

Second, I ran some simulations using AI which favored A&M.  I'm a dumbass so don't ask me to explain anything but, as you read this, all I'll say is "May we win 59-62 wins out of 100" because we're winning with Arch.  Not to mention, 130th red zone defense for Texas A&M?  Damn that's bad.

 

"Thanks — I re-ran the simulations assuming Texas is the home team and tested three reasonable home-field advantage (HFA) values from the literature/bookmaker guidance (2.6, 3.0, and 3.5 points). I searched current analyses for plausible HFA magnitudes (studies and sports-betting practice put college-football HFA roughly 2.6–3.0 points on average; some team-specific rankings give Texas about 3.5). VSiN+2ESPN.com+2

What I changed

  • For each HFA value I subtracted that many points from the A&M-favoring mean margins used earlier:

    • Monte Carlo neutral mean (A&M) = 6.80 pts → new mean = 6.80 − HFA

    • Common-opponent neutral mean (A&M) = 9.333 pts → new mean = 9.333 − HFA

  • Kept game-to-game SD = 13.5 pts, simulated 100 games for a single-run result and ran 1,000 repeated 100-game experiments to show the distribution.

Results (A&M wins out of 100 games)

(Displayed are single 100-game run counts and the 1,000-run mean ± stdev)

HFA = 2.6 pts (lower-end estimate)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 4.20): A&M 61 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 62.21 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.73): A&M 68 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 69.20 (sd 4.62).

HFA = 3.0 pts (typical bookmaker avg)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.80): A&M 60 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 60.81 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.33): A&M 78 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 67.91 (sd 4.81).

HFA = 3.5 pts (team-specific stronger HFA estimate used by some outlets for Texas)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.30): A&M 59 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 59.41 (sd 5.20).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 5.83): A&M 64 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 66.62 (sd 4.87).

Interpretation

  • Home-field advantage moves the needle: under the Monte-Carlo (team-margin) model, A&M’s expected wins drop from ~69 (neutral) to roughly 59–62 wins out of 100 depending on HFA — i.e., Texas’s home field reduces A&M’s edge by ~6–10 wins per 100 simulated games.

  • Under the common-opponent model A&M still maintains a solid edge (because its common-opponent margin was larger to begin with): expected A&M wins remain in the ~66–69 range (1,000-run means) even after HFA subtraction.

  • Which model you trust matters more than small changes in HFA: if you base predictions on season net margins and common-opponent results, A&M remains favored at Texas’s home field — but by a smaller margin in the Monte model and by a meaningful margin in the common-opponent model.

Sources I used for HFA guidance

  • Recent analyses and sportsbooks estimate college football HFA ≈ 2.6–3.0 points (bookmaker practice and recent studies). VSiN+1

  • Team-specific listings/rankings sometimes assign Texas a ~3.5-pt home advantage based on its home/away performance this season. VSiN+1"

Jacksonville Jaguars Wtf GIF

Posted
Arky moved with ease? They didn't score the second half until the game was out of reach. Also, if they were moving with ease, why did their opening two drives end in field goals?
They cracked some big plays. They lead the conference (nation?) in those things.
A killer for their first few long gainers was Taffe bouncing off the ball carrier. I'm not talking about the touchdown run. The first two possessions Taffe could have contained them with better tackling. I wonder if he was hesitating to wrap up because of his hand. He popped back to being his old self and contained many plays that would have gone for 15 or 20 further.
Man, we miss Taffe when he's not out there.
Yeah, this game didn't help Michaels draft chances at all. When you're a slightly undersized (and white, let's be honest) DB you simply can't get trucked in the open field.
Posted
2 hours ago, texasdago said:

First off, AI sucks...  

image.png.8170aea5620b4887396e858b567bfb2b.png

Second, I ran some simulations using AI which favored A&M.  I'm a dumbass so don't ask me to explain anything but, as you read this, all I'll say is "May we win 59-62 wins out of 100" because we're winning with Arch.  Not to mention, 130th red zone defense for Texas A&M?  Damn that's bad.

 

"Thanks — I re-ran the simulations assuming Texas is the home team and tested three reasonable home-field advantage (HFA) values from the literature/bookmaker guidance (2.6, 3.0, and 3.5 points). I searched current analyses for plausible HFA magnitudes (studies and sports-betting practice put college-football HFA roughly 2.6–3.0 points on average; some team-specific rankings give Texas about 3.5). VSiN+2ESPN.com+2

What I changed

  • For each HFA value I subtracted that many points from the A&M-favoring mean margins used earlier:

    • Monte Carlo neutral mean (A&M) = 6.80 pts → new mean = 6.80 − HFA

    • Common-opponent neutral mean (A&M) = 9.333 pts → new mean = 9.333 − HFA

  • Kept game-to-game SD = 13.5 pts, simulated 100 games for a single-run result and ran 1,000 repeated 100-game experiments to show the distribution.

Results (A&M wins out of 100 games)

(Displayed are single 100-game run counts and the 1,000-run mean ± stdev)

HFA = 2.6 pts (lower-end estimate)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 4.20): A&M 61 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 62.21 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.73): A&M 68 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 69.20 (sd 4.62).

HFA = 3.0 pts (typical bookmaker avg)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.80): A&M 60 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 60.81 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.33): A&M 78 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 67.91 (sd 4.81).

HFA = 3.5 pts (team-specific stronger HFA estimate used by some outlets for Texas)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.30): A&M 59 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 59.41 (sd 5.20).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 5.83): A&M 64 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 66.62 (sd 4.87).

Interpretation

  • Home-field advantage moves the needle: under the Monte-Carlo (team-margin) model, A&M’s expected wins drop from ~69 (neutral) to roughly 59–62 wins out of 100 depending on HFA — i.e., Texas’s home field reduces A&M’s edge by ~6–10 wins per 100 simulated games.

  • Under the common-opponent model A&M still maintains a solid edge (because its common-opponent margin was larger to begin with): expected A&M wins remain in the ~66–69 range (1,000-run means) even after HFA subtraction.

  • Which model you trust matters more than small changes in HFA: if you base predictions on season net margins and common-opponent results, A&M remains favored at Texas’s home field — but by a smaller margin in the Monte model and by a meaningful margin in the common-opponent model.

Sources I used for HFA guidance

  • Recent analyses and sportsbooks estimate college football HFA ≈ 2.6–3.0 points (bookmaker practice and recent studies). VSiN+1

  • Team-specific listings/rankings sometimes assign Texas a ~3.5-pt home advantage based on its home/away performance this season. VSiN+1"

I beat Aggy 52-17 on NCAA so I am going with that...

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
5 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

 

To be fair, this is a shitty joke

No argument.  We try to one up each other on shitty jokes.

Old and bored is a tough way to go out boys, but here I am.

 

  • Haha 1

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