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Posted
16 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Because Vegas enjoys taking money from morons.

Total was way off and that cover was a crime.

Posted
3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

It's all relative, right?  You can say Maiava went 25-43 for 303 against Oregon but what a lot of people would consider a top 10 QB and is not exactly comparable to Maalik going 25-44 and 281 against Tech. 

So, no, they've held up against good competition and dominated bad competition.

Whew lord is that a disingenuous reading of the Tech/Oregon State game. They had <100 yards at halftime and and barely over 100 yards passing at the end of the 3rd quarter when we pulled everyone after we got up 38-0. They had a few garbage time drives for Maalik to pad his stats against the scrubs. 

One thing that gives me pause is how they got manhandled in the trenches at home by Indiana, a team with a talent index far lower than theirs. The final 30-20 score wasn't really indicative of how badly they got beaten at the LOS in that game. I get how good and well coached Indiana is and I'm not saying Tech is as good as Indiana, but both play a very similar style of football.

Oregon needs to be able to run the ball efficiently for their offense to function well and no one has been able to run the ball on Tech this year, including Utah, who has multiple first round draft picks on their offensive line and is absolutely comparable or even superior to Oregon from a running game perspective. Regardless, it'll be at very least the 2nd best O-line we've faced all season and the most talented on paper.

Also, Oregon hasn't been great against the run despite not really playing against a good rushing offense all season outside of Indiana. That kind of manifested itself again in this game where that little bitty RB from JMU was hitting the edge pretty regularly and having a good day even while they were getting beat down in the first half. Tech's running backs can do exactly what that kid was doing except they're both bigger, faster, and stronger. 

5 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

As for Tech, both Tech and Oregon are top 10 total defenses and top 10 offenses. They have one common opponent in Okie State.  Oregon beat them 69-3, Tech won 42-0. Oregon got 631 yards and allowed 211. Tech got 370 and allowed 182. 

Two common opponents.

Posted
31 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Whew lord is that a disingenuous reading of the Tech/Oregon State game. They had <100 yards at halftime and and barely over 100 yards passing at the end of the 3rd quarter when we pulled everyone after we got up 38-0. They had a few garbage time drives for Maalik to pad his stats against the scrubs. 

One thing that gives me pause is how they got manhandled in the trenches at home by Indiana, a team with a talent index far lower than theirs. The final 30-20 score wasn't really indicative of how badly they got beaten at the LOS in that game. I get how good and well coached Indiana is and I'm not saying Tech is as good as Indiana, but both play a very similar style of football.

Oregon needs to be able to run the ball efficiently for their offense to function well and no one has been able to run the ball on Tech this year, including Utah, who has multiple first round draft picks on their offensive line and is absolutely comparable or even superior to Oregon from a running game perspective. Regardless, it'll be at very least the 2nd best O-line we've faced all season and the most talented on paper.

Also, Oregon hasn't been great against the run despite not really playing against a good rushing offense all season outside of Indiana. That kind of manifested itself again in this game where that little bitty RB from JMU was hitting the edge pretty regularly and having a good day even while they were getting beat down in the first half. Tech's running backs can do exactly what that kid was doing except they're both bigger, faster, and stronger. 

These are all good points.  I'm not gonna go back and forth because I don't really feel strongly either way, and I don't think we've seen either team play enough quality football to really make these sort of minute judgments.  The few things I'm confident in are (1) all 4 units are able to beat up on bad teams, and (2) Oregon is a good offense that has faded against good defenses (feels like they've been this way for a decade).

My model favors Tech pretty decently and it's 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS thus far....so you've got that going for you.

  • Like 3
Posted

My worry is the lengthy time off for Tech. 

It was good for getting healed up, but UO playing more recently gives them an advantage. You see it at times after a bye week, but this is almost a bye month for Tech. 

If my Tech-grad math is correct, it will be 26 days of not playing a game for Tech between the Big12 championship game and the Orange Bowl, vs just 12 days for the Ducks. 

I fear Tech coming out cold, stale, and slow comparatively to Oregon due to the lengthy layoff. 

But I will be there to watch it. So I have that going for me, which is nice. 

Posted
1 hour ago, JBJ said:

These are all good points.  I'm not gonna go back and forth because I don't really feel strongly either way, and I don't think we've seen either team play enough quality football to really make these sort of minute judgments.  The few things I'm confident in are (1) all 4 units are able to beat up on bad teams, and (2) Oregon is a good offense that has faded against good defenses (feels like they've been this way for a decade).

My model favors Tech pretty decently and it's 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS thus far....so you've got that going for you.

Yeah I'm not really trying to argue it's just fun to think about how this thing will play out. It's one of those strength on strength games which is always fun.

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