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Wulaw Horn

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Wulaw Horn last won the day on September 11

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  1. Was just going to post that he is a giant fucking gash but ok, that too I guess.
  2. He should literally be horsewhipped. Is this the deal where you let the chicken take a shit on a piece of paper with a bunch of schools names on it and assign a ranking in that way?
  3. Yep. Us too which means we are both working about 1/4 of a point ahead of national average according to my sifter...
  4. Oh- as a point of reference, and this isn't always true but horse shoes and handgrenages close- typically 50 basis points means 1/8 of a point in rate to customer. So when I say that we are off 130 basis points from Wednesday 11 days ago- that's 3/8 of a point in rate to customer typically. At least 1/4. I have a handy dandy tool that tells me what the average interest rate is being locked for everyone in the country. Today - 30 year fixed was 3.19% I want to say that was 3.02% not all that long ago (like 3 or 4 days).
  5. How in depth an answer do you want? Are you talking about what is the trend between the two? The higher the MBS rate is the lower your interest rate. Or are you talking about what kind of add on or spread exists? That’s going to be variable because there is an add ons throughout the process where everyone collects a spread and that’s going to be market based with various lenders pricing their interest rates at various price points dealing with capacities to do loans. think of oil and the price you pay at the pump as an example there. Oil could be free but gas won’t be free because you still have to drill it, transport it, refine it and sell it. The input goes up and the price goes up, the input goes down and the price goes down but at a certain point there is a cost to produce the product that the consumer is going to pay regardless of what the input price is. Same with mortgages. Your lender has to underwrite it. The originator needs to get paid, and the competition for time exists, the higher the demand in the market the less surplus capacity everyone has. The less surplus capacity to perform everyone has the pickier they will be and the higher the spread. That’s why historically low yields on 10 year treasury and historically high prices on the bonds didn’t see historically low rates in March of last year- everyone in the world was refinancing and the industry just couldn’t handle the demand. December of 2020 saw lower rates than March of last year because the demand was lower and more people could handle the capacity so pricing was sharper. for example- last spring I knew guys who just wouldn’t do a loan under 250 or worse credit than 700, or any kind of discount. They were so busy they couldn’t close it all so they sorted it by best/easiest/most profitable deal. Lenders were doing the same. We’d walk up with caliber and they’d have 3 for pricing and by the end of the day it would be 3.5 and the market had gotten better. I that scenario there was basically no correlation at all. If you are looking for something more technical let me know.
  6. MBS starting the morning down 25 basis points. Almost to support that they saw and bounced off of Friday before ending the day up 13. I don’t think there’s any market moving news, at least I haven’t seen any yet, so maybe technicals moving the market. Be interesting to see if support holds or if it ends up not and we might have seen the last of 30 year starting with a 2.
  7. I think the downgrade from Lunow to Click is huge. I really don’t like click. Also, I think lunow would have locked Correa up already.
  8. This is completely true and I agree with you 100%. Over a long enough period of time the difference between the best strategic manager and the worst is probably 2 or 3 games a year is all. But we pay guys $10 million per WAR in the open market and we have entire departments created looking for a 5/10th of a point advantage here or there. It does sort of matter at the margins and baseball is a game where the margins are important during a 162 game season bc there are so many inputs. the 2020 team finished below 500 after having been awesome. Cool. Whatever. Covid weird yada yada. This team is underperforming it’s peripheral numbers and much worse record wise than similar type teams that came before it (2017 and 18- 2019 was a class above). That doesn’t make a good argument for him being a good skipper.yes- guys seem to like him and are willing to play for him. You could do worse. But you could also do a lot better and when he makes a mistake it’s more glaring bc it’s an unforced error/nobody else is throwing 97 on the black trying to prevent him from making the right decision.
  9. Bringing Maton in to that situation in the 7th was a terrible idea. You use your highest value relievers in the highest leverage situations. I don’t care what the results are if the process is sound. This wasn’t that. You arguing otherwise doesn’t change that. Point to one time where I’ve ever complained bc the results went against us when the process was sound. You cannot bc that’s not how I do baseball. If Dusty Baker was playing black jack I would get up and leave the table because he would do things mathematically incorrect and it would probably drive me crazy. He does not maximize. Which might be ok if he always believed in using guys in a traditional role or way- there’s something to be said for that too. But he doesn’t. It’s a hodge podge. And it’s irritating. And it has nothing to do with his color for me, at least, and I honestly wouldn’t think it has to do with anyone else on here. Therr are a lot of stupid baseball fans that second guess good decisions because they don’t work out and blame the manager. This thread isn’t an example of that. People here don’t typically tend to second guess because a decision went wrong. Get beat with your best and them used in the right way and it’s a collective shrug and move on. People here are first guessing before results bc he makes many strategic miscalculations. nobody was blaming him for Siri or anything stupid like that. They were saying- hey- don’t send your seventh best pitcher into the biggest spot in the game. And they were right.
  10. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Virginia_Tech_Hokies_football_team VA Tech had a ton of hype and had beaten 3 top 15 teams plus a West Virginia team that won the big East and finished 11-1. after we had our scare against Ok State they had game day Visiting for a matchup of #3 va tech against #5 Miami. if you look at their schedule and ours it’s arguable that they played a tougher schedule. The national media was warming. Up the hype machine to make “whose the real #2” an actual question. not saying we would have lost out but it was a thing being talked about headed into November. outside of OSU win didn’t have a big win all season prior to the title game. OU was 8-4, tech ended the year barely ranked and that was it as far as quality teams we played. Colorado was viewed as shitty and wasn’t going to help in the title game. VaTech gagged as was their usual back then. They were clemsoning before that was a thing.
  11. This is a top 20 team. It irritates me that it’s not ranked. What you say may play out (and probably almost certainly will if we win our last 11 games of the season, most convincingly, to finish 12-1. I’m more talking about a scenario not that cut and dried. Where you need every advantage possible. there’s also the publicity and perception advantage that comes from being ranked. High light placement. On the scroll all day long. Fresh in recruits minds. On the ESPN tracker. That shit is all a a benefit of being ranked that we should have. We will have it if we beat TCU. Will we remain ranked if we lose a close one to OU? who know. I get why people want to punish texas. It’s not logical or fair but it is. I don’t get why a certain percentage of our fan base tacitly approves of that but so be it.
  12. Totally and completely right- the rankings don’t matter at all. I mean, the CFPB selection committee is a bunch of logic living Vulcans who would never let the fact that team A is ranked 4th while team B is ranked 7th influence their perception at all. Look, I’m not saying it’s dispositive but being behind the curve in the rankings all year long is a handicap and not a benefit.
  13. No. He’s talking about late October when we went up to Stillwater and fucked around and got down 4 TD’s to Ok State. Va Tech was undefeated, with a soft closing schedule, and people were talking them up and running bullshit pieces like “maybe VTech is more deserving than Texas.” While we had beaten Ohio State at night in the shoe, OU was warmed over garbage and it was by far the weakest big 12 year in forever. I think that we only played 2 ranked teams all year?
  14. I do t judge managers by results- anything can happen in baseball. Bad calls turn out good and good calls turn out bad all the time you can stay on 12 against a dealer 10 in blackjack and win- it happens. but incremental advantages are a real thing and Dusty Baker pulling the levers is like having an anchor attached to your team.
  15. It’s also ok to say- hey- I might like this guy but he’s a fucking moron, a conclusion that literally every other fan base and all the numbers and logic throughout his entire career have come to. Sure it’s ultimately the players responsibility to win or lose the game, but as long as the sport has a manager tasked with making strategic decisions maybe he should do his job and be better. this has nothing to do with results his process is flawed.
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