This is a weird recession, if we are in one (using the 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters...the fucking balls to try and change the way we've defined if for 80 years is something else, but I digress).
Cyclical sectors are not out of range and most are close to historical averages, meaning we aren't seeing blow outs and then declines following. residential investment as a % of GDP is slightly above average, light vehicle sales are below their average, and business fixed investment as a % of GDP is just slightly above its average. Job market is still tight. Layoffs are at 22 year lows, ratio of job openings to seekers is 2, which is historically high. Debt service ratio is currently around 9.5% which is an effective all time low when excluding the pandemic relate ratios once all the stimulus was out there. The amount of people traveling is off the charts and its all leisure. The consumer may chill in the fall but right now they are acting like they won the lottery.
I've written this before but nominally GDP is growing rapidly and our debt to GDP ratio will be reducing to 100% around 9/30. Inflation is the backdoor way the government de-levers. All those fucks (#bothsides) are getting what they want.