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babysdaddy

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Everything posted by babysdaddy

  1. Watching muschamp and thinking about our oline fuckin mauling some punk that hits our qb is mailing me moist. Football is close
  2. This is a weird recession, if we are in one (using the 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters...the fucking balls to try and change the way we've defined if for 80 years is something else, but I digress). Cyclical sectors are not out of range and most are close to historical averages, meaning we aren't seeing blow outs and then declines following. residential investment as a % of GDP is slightly above average, light vehicle sales are below their average, and business fixed investment as a % of GDP is just slightly above its average. Job market is still tight. Layoffs are at 22 year lows, ratio of job openings to seekers is 2, which is historically high. Debt service ratio is currently around 9.5% which is an effective all time low when excluding the pandemic relate ratios once all the stimulus was out there. The amount of people traveling is off the charts and its all leisure. The consumer may chill in the fall but right now they are acting like they won the lottery. I've written this before but nominally GDP is growing rapidly and our debt to GDP ratio will be reducing to 100% around 9/30. Inflation is the backdoor way the government de-levers. All those fucks (#bothsides) are getting what they want.
  3. He looks like the West Virginia mascot
  4. Here is the current Board of the OWGR that will approve or not. Jay will recuse. The others will kill it. No majors available unless you qualify from a previous victory. PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan, DP World Tour CEO Keith Pelley, USGA CEO Mike Whan, R&A CEO Martin Slumbers, PGA of America executive director Seth Waugh, Augusta National Golf Club executive director Will Jones and Keith Waters, who represents the International Federation of PGA Tours.
  5. No idea. Certainly part of it is that but to get that low amongst typical dem voters is fucking crazy. Maybe they focused on Cubans for polling?
  6. Hispanics with 70% disapproval. I'm sure there is something wrong with Quinnipiac but holy fuck
  7. Rule of thumb for me is if I'm playing multiple rounds, I bring my own or ship them, if it's a one round deal and not at a bucket list course then I'll rent
  8. steaming yet or nah?
  9. I'm not a huge fan of Raphael however if Georgia votes in Herschel over him it will be embarrassing to the institution.
  10. Cam won $2.5mm today, about $1.5 mm less than Brenden Grace won at that abortion in Portland
  11. Desantis or Younkin for Rs Newsom, Abrams or Polis for Ds
  12. He is going to shitpost is way to the Senate. Geno's is fucking gross.
  13. I'm not saying he's right or wrong, but he's given a few pieces of info that help other posers understand where he's coming from. He's an early 30's tech bro whose Dad lost his shit in Worldcom. No poster is going to change his mind given his real world experiences.
  14. I'm long oil, both direct royalties and equities, and have been for a few years now. And I know (for sure) we have a structural supply issue globally, regardless of Russian crude, but fuck. I keep having nightmares of Twain's quote "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's the things you know for sure that just ain't so."
  15. I looked at florida. There was (still is) some wishcasting by some folks that enough Republican florida voters would die that it would be back in play for Dems. I broke down age and race deaths and then allocated those numbers based on registered R vs D by same metrics and it didn't make a difference.
  16. I did some back of the napkin math and posted it somewhere on this board a year or so ago. It was not going to move the needle one way or the other from an election standpoint.
  17. Glad he can tweet because he apparently hasn't regained his ability to speak clearly. Took my father in law about 7 months post his stroke to start speaking clearly again.
  18. I've seen other folks here reference Zeihan. Populations across the developed world have reached their inflection point where they are no longer growing and will be shrinking. China's population will be half of what it currently is by 2050.
  19. Shut down the plants under the guise of Environmental regs and you lower nat gas prices for domestic consumers (America first?) but assfuck our allies and boost Russian income to finance their war. Real lose lose choice for the administration.
  20. I don't get that reference and it makes me sad. Guys is always talking his book but he's no dummy. Thread is relevant. Real GDP may decline a bit given inflation numbers but nominally we are going through the roof. Debt to GDP going to be close to 100% by 9/30, mainly given deficit spending is below last year (no stimmy) and nominal growth. We measure everything in Real (https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-first) however nominal is continuing to increase which is part of Ackman's point (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP)
  21. I'm really confused by this move. What kind of fucking clown show Klain running? Biden's approval is going to drop into the 20s once the hardcore Dems feel comfortable that disapproving of Biden does not mean you support Trump or wanted him elected.
  22. That delta shit fuckedme up one time. Much prefer the real stuff
  23. month over month, yes, but yoy these readings are replacing June 2021 when wti and nat gas were at 75 and 3.60, respectively.
  24. is your friend just trolling you? Junior? Benny Johnson?
  25. Do we have posters white knighting for Jimmy fucking Carter in the whatabouttrump 2022 thread?
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