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softlynow

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by softlynow

  1. So cataclysmic on the day 200k covid deaths is reached the NYT cover is about politics as usual. So cataclysmic that, while Biden led Trump in national polls by about 8 in February, he now leads by . . . about 8. If you're looking for a fourth turning type event, a reset of the political spectrum, the end of the sixth political party system and the rise of the seventh, this ain't it. If you're predicting one, though, après Trump le deluge. In fact, I think we should be quite concerned about what comes next. The deplorables are not going away. When Reagan invited evangelicals into the GOP, he created a new tranche of his base. Their side won some elections and lost some elections, but have yet to disappear as they did between the Scopes Monkey trial and 1980. Trump has done the same with completely moronic pieces of shit. They are an activated political force, and losing this election doesn't end that. And they're not just old people about to die. The next GOP candidate will not alienate the morons. Liberal tears will be a campaign promise for many more election cycles. Imagine the power of a GOP that has the deplorables not only excited to continue their nihilistic push for . . . whatever, but rallied around a Nikki Haley who wouldn't be a non-starter with independents and suburban women. Trumpism without Trump has the potential to coalesce quite the lasting coalition.
  2. I seem to recall each party predicting decades in the wilderness for the other party every 2-4 years. I've never understood why people think one party in a two-party system could ever gain that kind of dominance absent a cataclysmic event like the Civil War.
  3. That is why you fail.
  4. Like most on this site, I reference movie quotes way too much. I gotta kick that habit. I must unlearn what I have learned.
  5. She has a tiny record, so that’s what we have to go on. She may break from her mentors, and SC justices do often drift, sometimes pretty far, from the ideologies of their early careers, but you can’t link to their future thoughts. I have to laugh that I blew past your OP link. I had read that previously, and went searching for more on ACB when RBG died. There’s very little out there to discuss. Not that any of it matters beyond predicting how consistently she’ll did with Alito/Thomas/Gorsuch/Beer! Most likely, quite. There will be little suspense if the court remains at 9 members.
  6. She’s been with the 7th for less than 3 years. She’s a former Federalist Society member and has the profile cons love. Clerked first Scalia. (If she’s another Scalia, she’ll always side with LE when drugs are involved, and the 4th amendment won’t mean much outside of your home). Below is the Scotusblog writeup from 2018, and there are a few mildly controversial rulings in there. I’m sure another rundown will be forthcoming. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scotusblog.com/2018/07/potential-nominee-profile-amy-coney-barrett/amp/
  7. Agreed. She’s not satan and will be alright, probably. But the court rolled over and played dead when the war on drugs heated up, and she’s not carrying the defibrillator it needs. And her confirmation will highlight yet again the hypocrisy of “libertarians” like a few on this board who shrink from every opportunity to actually curtail state power in favor of guns rulings that mean little, fetus rulings that won’t mean much and rulings allowing the wealthy to hoard more wealth that are what this game is really all about.
  8. http://media.ca7.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/rssExec.pl?Submit=Display&Path=Y2018/D05-29/C:17-1727:J:Hamilton:aut:T:fnOp:N:2162392:S:0 Her opinion starts on page 35.
  9. Y’all do as you like on the religious angle. Boring. She penned a worrying dissent to me on the 6th Amendment right to counsel which tells me she’s exactly the wrong kind of justice to help reform our broken criminal justice system. Of course we knew that when she became a darling of the cons. And no, I won’t find any discussion on her civil rights attitudes interesting either. Nor her dismissiveness of Starr decisis. It’s noise past learning who she is. She’ll get on unless it’s revealed she thinks tax cuts violate the third amendment or something equally bizarre that would spook cons.
  10. Even if they keep the Senate Mark Kelly could be sworn by Nov 30 and that might be enough to prevent a lame duck confirmation. He’s going forward because he will win. That’s the calculation, always. Why not when every norm broken, every new height of hypocrisy reached only firms up the evangelical/deplorable/grifter/feed the rich base? If there ever is a Dem-dominated federal government again they have to not be the pussies they always are. Anyone really think that’ll happen?
  11. True. But music is enjoyable. If my background noise is somebody talking, they’re gonna be either intelligent and very knowledgeable about something(s) or funny as hell. I guess if you enjoy train wrecks he’s your guy.
  12. Meaningless noise isn’t interesting. No one’s mind is changed. No votes are in doubt. Liberals will use it to rally the pro-choice troops. Cons will play up that Christians are being persecuted again. Unless you’re life revolves around tv news, who fucking cares?
  13. I feel a bit better not because of independents but because turnout on the Dem side is going to be 2008 levels or better. That alone will do it. Independents are morons, and don’t seem swayed by left-right anyway. The additional gravy, especially in Arizona and maybe a couple other states (Georgia, Texas, SC Senate race?) is defecting Pubs, not necessarily Indys.
  14. GOP ... have to? Lulz.
  15. Where have you gone, Preston Brooks?
  16. McConnell said what he said because he knows he’s got the votes OR he thinks losing the vote helps in November. Maybe both. Collins, Murkowski and Romney aren’t necessary. Hell, you could let another vote nay or abstain if Manchin votes yea like he did for Justice Beer! This one is likely done.
  17. Lloyd and Harry singing Mockingbird would work, too
  18. Is that possible? I'm just asking. John Fucking Marshall was appointed by lame duck John Adams. Yes, it’s possible.
  19. Dude, there is no bottom. Sad Pence gif.
  20. I want to watch them suffer. After those things go through in the first 100 days, the whole state goes back to its rightful owners.
  21. Don’t stop there. One Dakota. WyMontIdaho. MissArKansOklahoma. Whittle red Amerika down to the 16 or Senators the deserve. 11 new ACLU lawyers on the SC. Make all NASCAR races have right turns. Make SEC! teams play 9 game conference schedules and disallow FCS matchups. Kaepernick statues at every mile marker on every interstate in former confederate states. Require all southern schools to play New York, New York on the PA after the pledge. Free firearms to NAACP members. Replace God Bless America with WAP during the seventh inning stretch. Tax churches at the top marginal rate to fund planned parenthood and transgender surgeries for anyone who wants them. Ban the DH. Death penalty for driving slowly in the left lane. Trains. Lots and lots of trains.
  22. Until 2021, which will see the inauguration of Trump for his second term as the last President of the United States.
  23. Looks like the tree of liberty needs some fresh manure.
  24. The Forest Service's website notes 1 project in California that operated from July 2017 and June 2018 and dealt with 500 acres of land.
  25. This has been a good week. I hope there really is more coming. Each scandal occupies us for about 3 days. Stack ‘em up all the way to Nov. 4 for good measure.
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