Russia is ~ top 3 in oil & gas production, and they lost most of their buyers - Advantage Middle East
Putin pushed the Green Movement to riding in the back of the bus on the back bumper - Advantage Middle East
EU will replace Russian gas w/ LNG - Qatar only ME country with large LNG export capacity - DIsadvantage Middle East
US Shale Development will get unleashed - DIsadvantage Middle East (US politically advantaged over ME)
Big question is how much Russian O&G production stays on line. Sanctions will kill maintenance and production will fall. Two sets of buyers, No Sanctions (China, et al) and Sanctions (US, EU, Far East). Oil is zero sum game, China can buy most of Russian oil and existing China purchases go to prior buyers of Russian oil. I expect Russian Gas exports will decrease and be replaced with new production from US, SE Asia, Australia & Qatar. Too much Russian Oil ($Billion/day) for it not to be produced, >> lying, cheating & corruPUTIoN.
Will US develop max gas production to support EU, or will US politics favor cheaper gas for US and much more expensive gas for Europe? Will NE US allow more pipelines or just bitch and complain like always?
This will be the biggest geo-political event since WWII, and most of America will be Ukraine? What? Huh?