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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Huckleberry

  1. They need to flood Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis Counties with a few great GOTV commercials. Something like the commercial @Bozo_Casanova posted earlier but with the woman saying "I didn't vote because I didn't think it mattered." Even better would be a couple with the man then saying "I didn't either, and for the same reason. And now I'm a man who didn't do everything I could to take care of my wife and child. Never again."
  2. May be? Sounds like they'll get around to figuring it out in a couple of years. Thanks, Merrick.
  3. It was but that doesn't work for Cloak Room satyanash so he left that part out.
  4. Haven't seen the tweet but this looks like you multiplied by .7 instead of .4
  5. Steepest D1 to D2 in-person drop we've seen. Overall the R counties dropped very very slightly more based on 2020 vote percentage weighting. Bad news for D hopes is that the 3 of the 4 counties ahead of their 2020 pace are R (Galveston, Denton, Brazoria with Cameron the only D). Good news is that the steepest early vote drop is Montgomery.
  6. Maybe the state but you know Wilco went for Biden, right?
  7. Sir, I don't post the 2010 style line graphs for my health.
  8. April 2021? Seems legit
  9. Top 15 counties Day 2 vote totals will be lower than Day 1 with Tarrant and Galveston still to report. That's fairly unusual, the only other time it happened since I've been tracking (starting in 2014) was 2018. Ted Cruz ruins everything.
  10. We should have just cited the precedent of Smart v. Van Buren and told the SEC we don't even remember any students throwing water bottles on the field. That's apparently a rock solid defense that the conference office can't figure out a way around.
  11. It is absolutely unreasonable. Any reasoned analysis would conclude that the current US approach to the Israel/Palestine conflict (which sucks, to be clear) is essentially SOP for this nation and that installing a pro-authoritarianism and anti-brown people head of state can only possibly make things worse. The blind spot isn't on the side you think it is in this situation. I don't agree with what some others have posted in that I'll still be saddened if Trump wins and he inevitably encourages Netanyahu to be even more ruthless. But if I were a Palestinian-American who voted for it to happen watching as it did, I think Rust Cohle's advice would probably go through my mind. And that would be more reasonable than having voted for it.
  12. Right I agree the sentiment is terrible but he didn't say he hopes it happens. And I'm with you, it's easy for me to say they're not being rational because I'm not the one with personal attachments to the people and the region. Their decision is understandable, but that's not the same thing as being reasonable. I won't insult this important topic by making a bad analogy, but everyone can come up with plenty of examples of something being understandable but not reasonable.
  13. Nobody wished harm on them that I recall. They said they wouldn't feel bad when it happened. That's a significant difference. Also, you are incorrect that a reasonable assessment based only on Arab relations would result in a vote for Trump. That's an absurd thing to say, really. Your argument makes more sense when you stick to ascribing their decision to emotion (they've seen people die) than reason. Because reason doesn't explain it, not even close.
  14. Disclaimers: This chart assumes each county early votes with the same split as 2020 which basis in lots of other questionable assumptions. It also uses compressed 2020 early voting into a 12 day schedule. It's intended to give a general view on early voting motivation. Bottom line is a slightly more R electorate than 2020's early voting start based on geography.
  15. It did but I'm talking about combined they did it, not each of them doing it individually. Obviously 2020 was WAY ahead at this point if you include mail ballots. But in person was higher yesterday even as a percentage of registered voters.
  16. Based on day one we should expect about 6,175,000 early in-person voters from the top 15 counties, or 50.4% of registered voters there. 2016 was 4.19M at 42.9%, 2020 was 5.95M at 53.5% (but with an extra week).
  17. Remember that 2020 day one looks higher because I compressed the 3 weeks of early voting into the 2 week graph.
  18. Better. I get to look down on low IQ asshole renters who vote differently than I do.
  19. With Tarrant County posting their numbers on their site I'm only missing Galveston County. But even without them, the 15 counties have now posted the highest percentage of RVs to vote in-person on day one of early voting ever. I've got Galveston in the denominator already so that percentage will only go up once they report. 4.6% of registered voters in the 15 voted in-person yesterday. Previous high was 4.5% on day one in 2020. 2016 was 4.0% which may be more directly comparable without any COVID impact to weed out.
  20. Hey! I don't rent!
  21. Harris was posted as 125,472 on the county site last night. Seems like they sent a file to the state that only had 100,000 listed. Almost certainly a clerical error.
  22. I have already heard from a neighbor who voted against the "massive" flood control tax increase. It would cost him around $150 a year. His house also flooded twice like mine (2016 Tax Day and 2017 Harvey). His house has also not flooded since the Flood Control District improvements even though we've had 3 major rain events in the last year. If the measure fails and he floods he will 100% blame the FCD. While he pays $900 per month for his jacked up truck so he can drive on paved roads from his suburban house to his suburban desk job. Humans are stupid.
  23. With Tarrant and Galveston Counties still to report, the top 15* counties have already reported the largest number of first day early in- person votes ever. * - top 15 by number of RVs except I'm still using Cameron instead of Bell (Bell passed Cameron in RVs in 2022) because they're still so close in numbers and that way it's an apples to apples behavioral comparison.
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