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Everything posted by GoldAppleCorps
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<emphasis added> This is a thought. The analyses I've seen (very good ones) seem to show Burrow's success almost exclusively off his primary read. Burrow is clearly not a tomato can. He obviously studies film and knows the process. His mechanics aren't terrible. When the play happens the way he thought it would, he can execute it. When GSU managed to muddle his first option (either by design or blind luck), his decision making seemed to devolve. The passes floated. His mechanics got goofy. Worse, he seems to always want to make a play - and that play should be in the middle of the field (after all, that's where you have the most guys, right?). Sam's biggest advancement last season was the realization that sometimes the defense wins. Burn the ball out of bounds (no problem missing long on a back shoulder fade - use the sideline to your advantage). Tuck it and bash. Heck, taking a sack reserves the right to another play. What makes the spread so deadly is the progression of options. If the defense took away option #1, well, they don't probably have enough guys for option #2. That option tripped on his shoelaces. Option #3 got blocked by his man. At this point, a good spread QB knows he's out of time. If option #1 hasn't miracled himself open, then aim for the Gatorade table.
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No realistic Texas fan doubts the LSU defense. This may be the most complete defense we've seen in a long time. Last week, Texas fans saw that their OL could hold up against token competition. This week, of course, limits will be tested. No one expects a flawless performance. LSU's defense will win a fair amount of plays. What you need to remember about the spread is that the play is won before the snap. The spread, well, spreads out the defense. The QB is in shotgun. The offensive alignment is designed to stress every area of the defense, and isolate them into 1 on 1 matchups. When the defense aligns, the QB and receivers are supposed to recognize the alignment. When the play is run, the QB attacks the part of the defense where the offense wins the matchup. The 5 Texas OL don't have to win battle after battle against 5 LSU defenders. They will add TEs or sweeps until LSU spins down another defender to attack outside with swing passes. They just have to be credible. The secret to defending the spread is to not stop moving. The offense wins before the ball is snapped by reading alignments. If the defense doesn't align, the offense can't read it. UGA learned this last year against a vastly inferior (we allege) Texas OL. Texas would not win against a straight up, push-them-around, he-man football. Fortunately, we don't aim to pit strength on strength. I'm in no way predicting an easy day for the Texas offense. Quite the opposite. This will be a long, grueling effort focused on ball security and first downs.
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During the course of a game, the OL is probably going to let someone get by. That happens. Sacks are no fun, but at least you usually still have possession of the football. What that video shows, and maybe it's an isolated incident or I'm not seeing the whole picture, is Joe Burrow burying his head in the face of pressure and hucking the football towards his last known good passing option. This is a cardinal sin in the spread offense! The spread doesn't come free. It operates on QBs reading the defense, WRs reading their coverage, and both knowing (without overt communication) what the route is supposed to be. Things happen REALLY quickly once the ball is snapped, so this has to be evident before the snap. Once the ball is snapped, a good QB will read his keys to confirm what he knew, then execute the play (either run or pass) that the defense presented. Things are bad enough when a WR blows his assignment. There's a decent chance that the defender followed him, and the QB just fires a pass into dead air. However, when a QB (typically under pressure) just guesses and wings the ball into the middle of the field, count on hearing the other school's fight song in short order.
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I think the visitor's bench is gonna roast during warm (!) ups and the 1st half.
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I felt bad for Coburn. Firing out of his stance into a double team over and over, only to have the QB take 3 steps and pass. He was effective, since LaTech quickly gave up running at all and just started winging it to the flats. Still, I imagine it takes a lot of mental fortitude, plus a healthy fear of your position coach, to keep up those reps.
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LSU has a ton of talent. Their defense is for real. The Texas OL showed up bigly against LaTech, but we'll start to find out now if it was them or the opponent. The Texas defense is no place to learn the spread. I know the Tigers fans are giddy over seeing a pass thrown and more than 2 receivers on the field at once. Here in the Big 12, we call that "Saturday". It literally happens to us every week. Every team, for the last 10 years, plays at least some type of that game in the Big 12. We've built a defense to stop literally nothing but that. The best spread offenses, collectively, live in the Big 12. A previous post said we wouldn't pressure Burrow without well timed and well disguised blitzes. You just described Orlando's standard defense. Like, every play. We're one DL and an assortment of guys ranging from fast and strong to faster and stronger. A strength of the spread offense is counting the defenders and attacking where they lack numbers. The Texas defense doesn't stand still to be counted. It's just impossible to tell who's covering or who's rushing until the ball is snapped. "Getting the ball out quickly" is all fine and good, but if you miscounted, then we'll see if Joe Burrow is faster than Joe Ossai. I'm not gutsy enough to predict an easy Texas win. The Tigers are a for-real opponent, and winning will be earned.
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Not necessarily, but I have spent a lifetime doing dumb shit. As I've increased in age, I find myself looking over a new proposed venture thinking, "Wait. How can this fuck up, and what's the worst that can happen when it does?". I'm looking over a team with an established leader at QB. One with not just options but good options on the OL. A defense full of athletes, and a WR room full of 6'6" speedsters. I'm venturing into a game against an overmatched opponent - but one that won a bowl game last year. It looks like everything's in place. However, experience forces me to ask, "How can this fuck up?".
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I've asserted all summer that the turnover on defense isn't as concerning as usual. I've said that this is because the players on this year's team are better athletes with better skills. Mike Tyson famously said, though, that everybody has a plan until they get hit. When the lights are shining, the crowd is cheering, and the defenders have to recognize the scheme across from them without a position coach nearby, we'll see if the head matches the physique. If they trust their training and play like they practiced, then they're a fearsome unit. If they question and think, they'll turn in circles like <last season's opener>. Last year, we saw an offense with a lot of talent, but that was hampered by the inability to block a pass rush. The coaches preferred to trust 2nd and 7 and 3rd and 3 rather than risk 2nd and 14 and lose the run option. The coach's choice of slot receiver tells me that they believe they can block that rush now. If that's true, then an embarrassment of riches will be unveiled. If not, 3 running backs might not be enough. Time to turn the key and see if this machine cranks up!
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You've clearly done a good bit of research here. I think what helps us more is that Orlando's D doesn't stand still before the play. A timing route is tough to defend, but only works when both the QB and receiver are together on the call. The QB really gets the ball out of his hands quickly in a lot of those plays against LSU. He's intelligent and experienced. He reads the defense well and throws the ball to a mark. However, if Texas is moving before and after (you'd hope) the snap, then the prospect of a quick pitch and catch diminishes. If the coverage isn't what you thought it was (a DB on the LOS suddenly retreats, etc), or if you and the WR had different ideas, then bad things happen. If the QB stops to confirm his thought, then the timing is off. I say this, but yet what's killed us in our openers two years running is defenders second guessing their role. In years' past, the complexity has led to the Texas players having to think about their roles during a play. They were usually right, but too slow getting there to be of any use. I'm hoping for defense at full speed on Saturday.
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It doesn't really matter if our opening opponent is better or worse. The Texas Longhorns should be a better football team. That should make all the difference. We entered the last two seasons with gaping flaws. During the season, those flaws were fixed or worked around (largely worked around). We tried to scheme around an OL that could probably run block, but couldn't pass protect. This time last season, the QB1 battle was still hotly debated. We, of course, haven't proven anything yet. Just because the OL should be better doesn't mean it will be. These things are only judged when an angry defense pounds on it. We're replacing errbody on the defense, and they should be stronger and faster. That's no guarantee that they won't still turn in circles like they were trained by Tudor Electric Football as we've seen in the previous openers. If these things are fixed, then I can look forward to a season fighting for hardware at the end. If they aren't, it will be just another "nice" season of watching football.
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So is our receivers room looking more like a Final Four NCAA bball team?
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I have no doubt Joe Burrow is a good enough QB. I further believe the receivers are likewise talented. The "OL has a tough time in pass protection" is a deal breaker. You either can pass protect or you can't. If you can't, the defense sits around 7 yards from the LOS and makes your life miserable. RBs can't run misdirection because of the swarming bodies. You can't throw quick slants because there's too many DBs in your field of vision to risk a pick 6. Once again, Texas fans are familiar with this concept. You can win games this way, living off running N/S between the tackles. However, you have to play almost flawlessly on both sides of the ball, and usually your opponent has to help out a bit. Texas fans are pinning their own hopes of offensive resurgence on continuity of the OL. The redshirted players that spent a year growing and learning rather than plugging holes in the roster. When the OL can hold for a 4 count, the playbook triples in size with the same players on the field. I see LSU and Texas as both having the same ideas both offensively and defensively. I just see the Texas offense as a year further into the system.
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While I agree with the sentiment and the passion, remember what offense we had last year. This wasn't the VY or Colt "fuck it, score again just to teach them their place!" offense. This was an offense that was forced to operate in a 7 yard area. The OL just wasn't good enough (and Sam usually not quite accurate enough) to threaten downfield. As a result, we had to drive the ball by mixing in and out runs with slants and QB draws. We kept the chains and the clock moving. In the 2nd half, when we had the lead, we played to kill the clock. That wasn't usually out of choice. It was out of a need not to risk cheap points to the opponent any more than necessary. We relied on a ferocious defense. We won 10 games and the Sugar Bowl last season despite not being good enough to dictate terms. Now, let's see what happens when the OL can pass protect for a 4 count and Sam can hit a seam route 20 yards in the air.
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It's worth noting that Sam and Joe won't likely play each other. It's our defense's job to stop Joe, and the Tigers' job to stop Sam. I'm getting the sense that Texas fans can empathize. It's been hard to follow, but it seems that LSU has tried to remake their identity several times with several coaches over the last several years. During this time, truly dangerous WR and QB are underutilized while the rest of the offense muddles through "growing pains". Every fall, the fan base points to "with an extra year" and "in the spring they" type stuff. As Texas fans, we get it. Right down to the "OMFG! Trash everything and try to be like Alabama!" vibe. We panicked too, threw away the script, ran off a MNC winning coach (not always a bad thing), and began wandering. I can tell you a million reasons why this year's Longhorn OL is going to be the one that opens up the offensive potential, but until that happens, we are what we were. My optimism comes from familiarity. LSU's offense seems to want to be what we have in the Big 12. They want tempo, multiple attack from same look, and RPO. They may work it out this season, and truly terrify the SEC with it. However, Texas is familiar with that. Our defense sees it every week, sees it in practice, and is built to stop the best in the business at it. Our DBs know that 18" of space is open, because they play against QBs that can hit that window from 20 yards out. On the flip side (the side that does indeed worry me greatly), LSU has freakish athletes. However, I'm wondering how they'll feel when the scoreboard hits in the 20's in the first half? If the OL performs as I expect, the Tigers will need to defend the entire field for a long time. I have no doubt LSU is a team full of fantastic athletes. It just looks like they're coming to Austin to try and play our game.
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The points have been very well covered here. Maybe we'd be talking differently if this were a player at a position with no depth, but I hope not. Stupid actions should have consequences. On a more practical note, I'd like to address the wisdom of chambering a round and THEN PUTTING A WEAPON IN YOUR WAISTBAND. Josh, c'mon man!
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We're going to have to acknowledge that hits to the head will end football. Right now, the sport of American football is under the microscope as causing severe brain injuries that can cripple a person for life. Insurers are terrified that this is the next asbestos or similar payout. They don't want to underwrite football and its risks. Football is responding by eliminating, to every degree possible, hits to the head and head area. If the sport did nothing, it would be trivial for a plaintiff to say, "They knew it caused problems, yet they allowed it to continue!". Intent of the player doesn't matter. Football at all levels has to show focus on removing head contact from the game, or else the game will evaporate overnight. Foster did not "target" the head, but he hit it pretty good. It was a football play, and he'd do it 10 out of 10 times again. It's an unfair punishment to the player, but we're going to have to simply accept that players unlucky enough to be placed in that position will be ejected. Otherwise, our saturdays will be spent watching "Fortnight".
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If the coaching staff is still liking Duvernay in the slot, that tells me they think the OL can pass protect long enough to develop his routes effectively. If that's the case (and Sam can consistently put the ball on target), this would become a very dangerous offense.
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2019 Texas Football Season - "#8 Go Fuck Yourself Bitch"
GoldAppleCorps replied to Xcalibur's topic in Football
No. There's a strong chance he knows what he's talking about. I just ramble as I see fit. None of my ravings may ever come to pass, but whaddya want for nothin'? -
2019 Texas Football Season - "#8 Go Fuck Yourself Bitch"
GoldAppleCorps replied to Xcalibur's topic in Football
and this is what has me optimistic. Almost every sports organization has Jake Fromm heralded as the best NFL ready QB everrrrrr. I don't have the intellect to argue with that. I do know that, even with a month to prepare and all the film you could possibly want, the Texas defense had him absolutely addled. In the end, he just started flinging (perfectly thrown and very pretty) footballs in the vague direction of the sideline. He was missing wide open receivers. It's obvious to me that Todd Orlando doesn't play defense fairly. The SEC QBs are taught via textbook how to read and attack a standard NFL ready defense. Todd's boys swim around pre-play, then attack like piranha fish in a 70's schlock film when the ball is snapped. The offense might be schooled in how to run routes perfectly and the QB might know how to attack a given alignment, but Orlando's schemes defy teaching. You're just going to have to figure it out as best (and as quickly) as you can once the ball is snapped. -
Is the big 12 going to be solid top to bottom in 2019?
GoldAppleCorps replied to markstanco's topic in Football
Baylor has decent skill position players and one or two superior defenders. They have lots of growth potential, which is code for saying they have holes. They practiced and conditioned this summer like everyone else. There were a lot of "if the OL improves" and "if the secondary gets better", coupled with "when we find a pass rush" after last season. Yes, the players could get better. However, Charlie Brewer was running for his life, keeping the team moving through sheer force of will and taking too many body breaking hits while doing it. It's tough for me to verbalize a credible reason why the OL or other protection will be different this season. If you give the Baylor offense a moment to operate, they're lethal. My advice is not to do that. It isn't hard to disrupt it. They have to get into the 30 point range to have a shot at winning. Against quality teams, that's a tall order. As someone who's watched Baylor plenty over the last 20 years, I can't immediately tell you who gets the ball if Charlie Brewer isn't in the game. Executive Summary: Baylor is a good but not great team. Too many stars have to align to hope for a special season, but it's possible. -
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Devin Duvernay is a perfectly cromulent option at slot. The slot plays off the LOS, so a physical nickel or LB can't get a face-to-face jam on him at the snap. When the ball is snapped, Devin's going to be sprinting unimpeded. This is important, because he's essentially racing the pass rush. If he gets downfield faster than the defense can get to the QB, then he's almost always going to be 1 on 1 with a deep safety. Here's the ugly secret - if the deep safety's initial cut is to cover, Devin fades to the outside. If he initially cuts to support, Devin bends inside. Either way, if Sam and Devin see the same thing, the safety is helpless. The key here is "racing the pass rush". Last season, even as fast as Devin is, the OL couldn't reliably hold up against a pass rush long enough to spring him. This limited everything. LJH rode to our rescue by being a tough matchup who could win contested balls in traffic. The slot in our offense shouldn't be doing that, but thank Bevo he was there to do it. The lack of downfield threat (primarily caused by not-quite-good-enough pass protection) kept the defenders close to the LOS. Any time Ingram broke through the line on a run, he was sure to find 3 more defenders waiting for him within 7 yards. The compact nature of our offense simply prevented any long gains. Right now, the Texas WR room has an embarrassment of riches. Not only talent, but diverse talent. Speed. Size. Catch radius, etc, it's all there. If Herb Hand does his job, the receivers will get their time in the press conferences.
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If this is working correctly, he runs out of the slot in an effort to get deep as quickly as possible. Not simply in an exact straight line (there's rules about pulling a shaded safety away from help, etc), but largely in a straight line. Obviously, a defense has to honor this. The safeties have to get over. The LBs (or Nickels) have to cover. That straight line speed, even if the ball doesn't come his way, widens the open spaces for other receivers or RBs to enter and catch easier passes. If the play is a draw or other run, then the players running with Duvernay are 20 yards down field and spread out by the time they react, rather than 7 yards and watching the RB. Much more likely the RB eludes those tackles en route to a big gain. Duvernay's speed is a luxury that takes the top off of a defense, but only if the OL protects long enough for him to get there. That's why LJH was a better option last season. The defense wasn't going to be spread out enough by the time Sam had to throw the ball.
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