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VolenteHawk

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by VolenteHawk

  1. I’ll make a small live play on the Steelers to win outright...-240 PK.
  2. That’s why they’re cheaper than they should be. Your mileage may vary.
  3. I have Washington in the noon games. I’ll sell you the ticket at a discount. Afternoon I got Dolphins +6 and Raiders -1. I’ll try to remember to post next week.
  4. Your "worth a try" is my "blatantly trying to rip people off with terrible odds". Texas is -450 and you're offering even. That's stupid and it would take a stupid person to accept. Like if I told you I'd take Biden Texas if you laid 10/1, you would be similarly stupid to accept that, regardless of confidence level, because you can do so much better literally anywhere else.
  5. Predictit has limits so low it’s basically a crowdsource opinion piece. Betonline is (apparently) handling a lot of volume, so I’d say it’s a truer reflection of reality. If I had to guess, I’d say that the difference between polls and betting markets in closely contested states has to do with the likelihood of legal challenge that gets votes thrown out or otherwise not counted. #nocr
  6. Betonline currently has -170, -170, -500 for true odds of about +200...so I’m not sure you find a taker.
  7. Welcome to the NFL, man. Let’s take my card today an an example. Denver +3.5, Rams -3 (never got), Steelers +200 (never got). By FAR the best handicap there was the Rams. Outgained the Dolphins 471-145, shit happens...only one that didn’t win.
  8. Oh yeah, no chance at a Top Golf concept...I meant the Horseshoe Bay course.
  9. I don’t see much value on today’s card. I’ll grab the +3 1/2 with the Broncos and if the Rams tick down to 3 before kickoff I’ll lay that. The Steelers ML is kinda interesting. If that gets to +200 that’s probably a play. So basically I’m playing one game and watching lines for moves I probably won’t get.
  10. Horseshoe Bay has a nice putting course like you're talking about. Good for nighttime degenerate gambling and drinking. And real grass.
  11. Audio Visual Consultations might be able to help, too. Locally owned by a good dude.
  12. I think we need to check on him. That reads like the wife trying to sound normal while he’s locked in a dungeon. Not unlike an alien trying to sound human post body-snatching. There could be real trouble here.
  13. Making a couple of plays this week... Already grabbed... Panthers +7.5 I make this game NO -4.5, the market is either giving NO a bump for home field or bye week rest or I'm just wrong on Carolina and will lose my ass on them soon. Like it considerably less at 7, so already bet it. Even last week when my bet was never alive I didn't hate the handicap, you just can't overcome -2 TO and 50% on 3rd down from a team that sucks at it. Panthers +1200 to win the NFC South. Obviously a long shot (why it's 12/1), but if the Panthers are going to make a run most paths include them getting at least a split with the Saints and their other game is week 17 when, if they're still alive, this number will be long gone. Eagles -4 Too big of an adjustment on injury news of guys that just don't affect their power rating. I played it at -4 +105 figuring that was the bottom but some 3.5s are already popping up...so you could do better. Will grab... Titans in some way. I'm going to let the line breathe a little. If it gets to 3 I'll take the points and if not I'll just take the best ML I can find. I like the Steelers (see other thread about them being my preseason most underrated team) and have a huge position on their season win total over, but this is a terrible spot...a little overreaction to them blowing out Cleveland and they're at the Ravens next week. Looking at... Eagles +150 to win the NFC East. I'm still thinking this one over, but the Eagles schedule doesn't get hard until closer to the end, so if I have conviction that they're a little undervalued firing at this could give me the option of either riding with them or buying back some Cowboys and locking in a profit. The only way I'd get really jammed here is the Eagles sucking over the next month or the Cowboys getting hot and the Eagles have a far easier schedule through that stretch.
  14. Betonline still down this morning. Love Carolina again this week, think they are a little undervalued and the Bears are a little overvalued. Panthers -1
  15. Sorry, Stros fans, I like them again. Astros +105
  16. They reopened the old back 9 (with a couple holes modified) plus a 3 hole practice area near where the old 10 tee was. It’s kinda sad because it was such a good golf course, and it’s a long ways from that...but it’s open.
  17. As long as one of the other courses of action is “fuck this, I quit” I’d imagine the scenarios where I’m in a tank are pretty rare.
  18. My teenager used it once. I told her to look around, reminded her that I paid for all this, and I know more than her...and that in my fucking house I’ll explain how things work without it getting a cutesy, Twitter, SJW label or you can pay rent. It hasn’t been used again.
  19. Surprisingly I like both games today... Astros +113 Dodgers -135
  20. In the 96 Olympic trials I finished 1st, 4th, and 9th in jerking off.
  21. Panthers +125 Rams/Steelers teaser -1/-1 -110
  22. Price is favorable today... Astros -104
  23. Trades transfer draft value, so the cut/add thing is still not relevant in our league. So...$25. The keeper thing is the one I'd care least about. Every team this year kept 2, so it probably doesn't come into play, anyway.
  24. I would rather play in a league where you start 3 kickers than one that uses waiver wire ordering instead of FAAB.
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