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Skipper

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Skipper

  1. We can all feel a certain way about our season and given what this team has shown on the road I'm not sure we could win a first round game against any potential opponent. But the reality is, if Texas wins it absolutely has a playoff caliber resume considering strength of schedule. I want us to win for all the obvious reasons but would really like to force a committee decision that will clarify how we should schedule going forward. I love playing the big OOC games but we absolutely shouldn't do it if it's clear the committee isn't going account for vast scheduling discrepancies. I want us to be 9-3 and look at the final rankings and project (i) where would we be slotted 10-2 with a W against Ohio State, (ii) where would we be slotted 10-2 with a W against Sam Houston (replacing OSU) and (iii) where we are actually slotted. If we don't think there is a meaningful difference between the first 2 scenarios (i.e., just at the front of the 2 loss teams so maybe a couple of spots) and 9-3 with the OSU loss slots us out all together, it becomes pretty clear there is no reason to schedule tough OOC.
  2. I don't think whatever model they use is public.
  3. Depending on how it shakes out if we win the committee may very well have to confront the fact that keeping Texas out will result in significant scheduling changes for all teams (and a huge blow to the networks that are trying to push for more marquee OOC inventory). I don't think we know definitively what they would do on the final vote. Again, Texas-OSU is the highest rated game of the year to date. Networks WANT a 9 game conference schedule + top OOC games. Conference want the same so they can charge higher rights fees. Sankey went to 9 + 1 on the basis that strength of record matters going forward. If committee ignores that and 9-3 Texas is left out in a scenario where it is abundantly clear a 10-2 Texas with a win against Sam Houston would be in, it throws all of that out the window. I think there will be a lot of pressure on the committee to avoid that. It's why I want to see the last spot come down to a 10-2 Vandy or a 9-3 Texas. That would pretty much definitively answer the question given the H2H win if not "counting losses". Klatt had a segment on this several weeks back. He said there was a points based model floated internally at some point where a loss to a top 5 teams is worth more than a win to a bottom tier team. But if they aren't going to follow that, fine, let everyone know so SEC teams stop risking seasons scheduling 50/50 OOC games years in advance.
  4. People that don't understand this don't understand statistical probability. We'll see at the final selection but so far I think it's clear that the whole "we are using strength of record" as a metric has been BS. That's the entire reason the SEC went to 9 games. I think it's starting to be clear we absolute should not be scheduling elite teams OOC. Inserting a game you have a 40-60% chance of winning in any given year compared to a game you have a 95% chance of winning when the committee still inexplicably "counts losses" just doesn't make sense.
  5. I think preferable for aggy to be ranked high regardless. Games did not break well for us at all last weekend (especially ours with the margin of defeat) so agreed with the consensus very unlikely can squeeze in even if we win out. I think the best path might actually be Auburn beating Bama (which isn't impossible). I think we would slot above Bama if so. But in that scenario, even if Vandy wins out, Texas has a top 5 win against Aggy, top 8 win against OU, top 14 win against Vandy with losses to probably #1 and #3 or #4 (assuming UGA beats GT) + FL. As I stated earlier in this thread I think, I would absolutely love for the committee to be in a scenario where they have to choose between a 2 loss Vandy and 3 loss Texas for the final spot just to see what they would do. Either they take Texas and piss the rest of the Texas hating world or tell all of CFB you should not schedule tough OOC games (in direct conflict with message TV wants them to send). That would be fascinating to me and I think they take Texas. I don't think this is a playoff worthy team but all things being equal would love to see a scenario where we get a shot vs. a meaningless bowl game.
  6. Ahh. I had it on mute while working. Good deal.
  7. Nice. Missed that. I get the Tiffin "Stars Thoughts" emails and did a search for "Duchene" and it popped up that he wasn't traveling but now see it was from last Wednesday's story and not this one. Good to hear.
  8. I couldn't make it after the 2nd last night so saw that highlight this AM. Badass. Man that trade looks better by the game. Do we have any idea at all on the Duchene injury and how long he's out. I know there was freak out about the move to LTIR but that was retroactive and he's eligible to come back at any time so don't think that is necessarily indicative of anything. But also not seeing any rumors about expected return and pretty sure he's not on this road trip so doesn't seem like it's close.
  9. Go back and read the quotes that got you worked up. I'm well aware of NIL. I met RGB a fucking NIL meeting like 3 years ago. I know others separately that have details which is how i got the invite to said meeting. It was purely commentary on the gossip queen citing fucking google. That's it dude. With that, I'm out on this thread. You all can continue circle jerking each other from here.
  10. I never said otherwise. JFC. I'm making fun of your fucking gossip column and then citing google. I need to figure out this ignore feature stat.
  11. Since you quoted me then deleted, I never said the figure was wrong. I was laughing at the queen of Bravo style gossip quoting "google" for sources knowing damn well there are posters that knew specifics and could weigh in. Anyone that reads this board with any minimal regularity should have known who I was referring to.
  12. LOL. Yes, made the century cut-off. But if you would have said 'this decade' it would explain a lot.
  13. Fair enough LOL. Watching while finishing up some work although don't think I can stay up for this one. Got back from travel super late last night and catching up with me. Let's get some points.
  14. Great. Why does my degree suddenly seem significantly devalued.
  15. JFC. You truly aren't even worth fucking conversing with. Turned this board into your fucking Bravo TV show and now just putting words in peoples mouth.
  16. This would have been WAY worse IMO. Everyone (including every staff in the country trying to poach Texas players and recruits) would have taken that as gospel Sark is trying to GTFO ASAP. Just admit you are pissed and there isn't a single thing Sark can say or can't say you will agree with.
  17. Are you serious? You think he's going to get up and say publicly he's considering leaving or in any way be honest to the media regarding anything that's going on? He said what every single coach would say. Did you forget Schloss the night before he took the job LOL. And the running game bit I did hear. I didn't agree with it but more nuanced than you are stating. Again, standard post loss coach speak in my view. I actually think media is the one thing Sark does better than any coach we've had (not quite as full of shit as Mack was and way better than Strong or Herman) Well you were one of the posters I knew that could speak to it without citing fucking Kirk Bohls and google.
  18. Yes, you've made quite fucking clear how dialed in and important you think you are in your 5000 posts on the subject.
  19. There are posters on Surly that know NIL specifics. More than fucking Kirk Bohls knows for sure.
  20. What is he saying that is crazy? Are you saying internally? Because I haven't seen everything this week so may have missed, but have not seen any public statement that isn't exactly what I would expect him to say.
  21. Nicole's source. Google. LOL. There are several posters here that can speak to the veracity of that directly if they want to and you are citing fucking google.
  22. I'll never understand fans that don't understand the way coaches talk to media and the way they talk behind closed doors is night and day. It's truly fascinating people that allegedly follow sports can't comprehend this yet after every loss there are people that lose their mind at the press conference. Does anyone think that the leaked Bo Davis rant that is (rightfully) praised would ever be said publicly LOL.
  23. I disagree with this. Or at least any insinuation we are a less toxic or fair weather than the worst in that regard (which, I'll admit, is a decent chunk of the SEC and several other top tier programs). We are certainly up there with all of them. But let's be clear, the reason for all the activity in this thread is that we have 3 losses in a season with high expectations and blame must be allocated loudly. If we beat UGA, none of this shit is being talked about. But we've lost 3 games and the last one wasn't close so now it's turned into personal and character attacks on the coach based on rumors. Maybe they are right - I don't know. I could text someone right now that almost certainly would know but I don't really care enough (and when I do get insider information, I typically don't post it all over this board particularly to the extent the subsequent discussion would in any way damage Texas). Obviously most don't agree with that and think all dirty laundry should be shared widely. But you are kidding yourself to think that if Sark is replaced, similar toxicity won't exist the first time Freeman or Kiffin or whoever has a disappointing loss. The coach everyone is clamoring for today will suddenly become a fucking retard and no doubt people will search and gossip about off the field reasons to explain why their god given right to enjoy a 10+ win and playoff season is in jeopardy.
  24. This is fucking laughable. Instigating all of the nonstop teenage girl/TMZ gossip for weeks now. Yes, I'm sure you hate all of it and all the attention. That checks.
  25. Herbstreit may have been dead on with his cesspool comments given this tread this week. Toxic 'Cloak Room' style discourse has been spilling over to this board for years now (i.e., Ewers thread) and now it's just turning into fucking Longhorn TMZ.
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