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Posts posted by Nice Guy Eddie
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43 minutes ago, Gap03 said:
You could be right. I assumed, and could very well be completely wrong, that the cabins in question were on the south part of the picture I highlight. That's a lake off something referred to as Cypress Creek. The Guadalupe is at the top of my photo. And I'm looking on a flat map where the elevation changes could be significant for this property.
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44 minutes ago, Gap03 said:
I ran across the picture of the Camp Mystic cabin locations, and I have to admit that I was shocked that they'd put young kids at this location on a river subject to flash flooding. I guess it hasn't been a problem before now, that just doesn't seem like much elevation.
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/05/camp-mystic-texas-hill-country-flooding-rescue/
From what I can tell from satellite photos, that really isn’t a river but a lake off a Guadalupe tributary, that most likely has a weir style dam. That would normally keep the lake from exceeding much over the dam height. Except in times of extremely flooding and/or if the downstream lake or river is also at flood stages.
if I’m wrong about my above speculation (100%) I hope someone corrects me.
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9 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:
I think you are mostly right.
But those camps are also a fixture down there and probably the highest-population-density areas outside Kerrville proper for 50-60 miles in any direction.
It prompts the question why local officials didn't get off their asses, call all the camps, or hell, stop by, and say, "hey, you know what's going on with the weather, right? Do you have a plan? If not, let's make one right now."
It’s natural tendency to assume that everyone has it under control. If you’re a new-ish official for a small county, are you going to start telling 80-year old businesses that they have unsafe practices or need to evacuate their campers right this minute? I would also bet the sheriff’s office is probably sized for the permanent population and not increased for temporary visitors especially the children of well-off parents.
in a developing natural disaster, no county official (elected or law enforcement) can adequately address the needs of all residents. It’s like when a hurricane hits the coast, and law enforcement tells you that you’re pretty much on your own during the height of the storm. (I realize hurricanes are not flash floods.)
lessons will be learned from this flood and eventually forgotten.
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In looking at maps of camp mystic and what I assume is another camp up stream from up, I see a series of what looks to be dams to produce private lakes. Something called cypress creek, not the Guadalupe river. I can see why a camp needs a lake especially in times of droughts. Flash floods, especially in prolonged droughts, can initially bring large amounts of debris. Could the debris hit up against the dams create a temporary larger dam until the water/debris breaks free only to hit the next dam, and so on?
Im ignorant of private dams but wonder if they can contribute to the 100+ year storm impacts in terms of people in the immediate area. I don’t care if people dam up smaller creeks assuming they are following the law but I doubt Texas does a good job of regulating them.
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Very weird to release this story on Sunday night. Obviously they want to end the story quietly but why not release it this past Thursday afternoon going into the weekend of the 4th. Or maybe a news source was about to announce that they were intentionally sitting on it so they quickly released their findings. Odd.
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1 hour ago, HenryJames said:
‘likely’
Quote“I can tell you in hindsight, watching what it takes to deal with a disaster like this, my vote would probably be different now,” the freshman GOP lawmaker said.
In hindsight, his vote would probably be different? Way to take a stance there Virdell. I bet your constituents will feel the same about their votes for you.
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4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:
Since I didn't grow up in TX, I just don't get this "camp culture" y'all have. Seeing that there are camp reunion committees, camp alumni chat groups, etc. just seems weird as fuck to an outsider.
I’ve lived in Texas for my entire 50+ years and I had zero knowledge of the camps around kerrville until Friday. I would guess >95% of Texans have no clue about this culture.
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Send the dodger fans home on that.
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17 minutes ago, BlackCat said:
Yall wouldn’t believe how heartbreaking some of this is. Families are getting calls saying we have your daughter and demanding a ransom.
Where are you hearing this? From someone who actually received the call? The depravity of some never surprise me but neither does rumors that start spreading on Facebook. people start saying they know someone who received the call when they really mean they know someone who forwarded the gossip.
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3 minutes ago, Captainant said:
I have a deep dark feeling that they don't want to update the flood plain maps because they'd be admitting there's a problem with their current emergency plan. It would drive insurance out of the state, and destroy RE values if it turned out vast swaths of "500 year flood plains" are really more like "50 year flood plains"
Politics and economics always come into play. Look at Florida and how they responded to that condo collapse. They passed laws in an attempt to prevent another tragedy, and now they’re quietly rolling them back. It always comes back to property values. “We need safety but not at the expense of my net worth.”
separate issue but my old Houston neighborhood voted down sidewalks when the city was offering to cover the build costs. Residents didn’t want to lose a few square feet of their front lawn. I shake my head every time I see parents pushing strollers while sharing the road with commuters and delivery trucks.
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3 hours ago, Nicole44 said:
I keep hearing Flash Flood Alley and most dangerous flood plain in the US. Yet a community that makes quite a bit of money from tourists and campers and their parents in the months most likely to have flooding did not want to pay for a warning system bc it was too expensive. It reminds me of the movie Dante’s Peak where a town resides in the valley of a volcano. 🌋 Of all the things I have heard of the past couple of days I think this stubbornness that “well it floods a lot here but it won’t ever get that bad” mentality was a ticking time bomb. It is the mentality.
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Camp Mystic sits on a strip known to locals as “flash flood alley.”
“When it rains, water doesn’t soak into the soil,” said Austin Dickson, CEO of the Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country, which was collecting donations. “It rushes down the hill.”
Decades prior, floodwaters engulfed a bus of teenage campers from another Christian camp along the Guadalupe River during devastating summer storms in 1987. A total of 10 campers from Pot O’ Gold Christian camp drowned after their bus was unable to evacuate in time from a site near Comfort, 33 miles (53 kilometers) east of Hunt.
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power of nature + local mentality that they will never have the ultimate disaster despite living in their words the most dangerous flash flooding alley in the US is the main factor (not the only one) but it seems that way to me. We all know there are other factors. But this was a disaster waiting to happen. And it seems like the locals owed in my mind their tourists, their campers and families of the campers on the backs of whom they make a healthy monetary cash influx an early warning system in that county to keep them all safe. And now July 4th will be symbolic for tragedy. And they didn’t want to spend the money on a necessary system that could have spared many of the deceased who aren’t even old enough to vote, and in many cases aren’t even big enough to ride most of the rides in theme parks.
that’s how I see it. I’m pissed and hurt and like many of you need to take a break from the tragedy and find some peace. There has been zero word from my two cousins (who each have a friend missing a child) on the two girls that have not yet been found. Keep praying for a miracle despite all evidence to the contrary. The numbers are rising.
It can be frustrating with the oft repeated response to tragedies that no one could have predicted this. Actually it is predictable, and could even be worse with a heavier rain event. I hate to compare tragedies but Wimberley taught us a decade ago about the dangers of flash floods in this area.
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2 hours ago, Cap33 said:
Special session coming up in July. I'm sure there will be a nicely worded joint resolution honoring those who died.
2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:And thanking god that it wasn’t worse.
Some in state govt will pat themselves on the back that their actions prevented more from dying. Of course in reality, the best we can hope is when the state govt stays out of the way.
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Geologist talking about the high potential for flash floods in certain areas like WV, eastern KY and the hill country. New video in response to what happened this weekend. He claims that these are some unique areas across the globe. (I can’t refute or confirm that statement.)
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29 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:
Got home late last night. Waking up this morning getting ready for church. For the first time something dawned on me that I don’t normally think about
my iPhone when it hits 10pm and my old ass is going to bed. It goes into do not disturb mode. It shuts off at 0600 with my alarm. I know many like this as well
for all the folks mentioning alerts at 1-3am. How many of yall would have gotten that alert?
I haven’t heard my ringtone in 23 years it’s forever silent buzz
now at a camp im sure like basic or deployments there would or should have been an on call or overnight “door guard” or someone on standby to monitor alerts. Or maybe not. I dunno
but wondering how effective a cell phone alert in the middle of everyone sleeping would have worked
edit. Just saw cell phone and iPads are banned at camp which is awesome for kids but surely adults had them.
Just thoughts on my walk to church
If you’re in the care of others, especially when parents have entrusted you to watch over their children, someone should be mindful of current conditions at all times. Especially if there is awareness of potential problems.
An overriding problem is that we’re all human and we all look to trends or patterns. And the pattern is that most flood warnings don’t lead to a catastrophic flood.
I dont have kids, and growing up we weren’t camp-goers. I would have guessed there would be someone awake monitoring what is happening even just helping a camper with an issue in the middle of the night. The more kids on-site, the more people with the night watch, and said watch should be clear when to alert any sleeping camp directors.
im not criticizing any particular camp or their procedures. I work off an assumption they all have procedures to quickly move kids to a safe location whether it’s a flood, fire, intruder, etc.
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2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:
This could go on about 7 different threads on 4 different boards. Congrats Big Ballz and DOGE
Has Trump blamed Biden for this yet?
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One of the best parts is how some dodger fans stayed until the end because they wanted to see the post-game fireworks. There are times need to lie to your kids that the show was cancelled and leave.
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Chip Roy helps to pass Trumps bill to hurt the Everyman, and now the 21st congressional district is being washed away? Coincidence? Punishment?
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Given how long it takes to execute someone, I imagine that many loved ones, of a murder victim, have passed away not seeing the perp executed. And sure you can complain that we take too long but that’s the system.
Odds are that the families unanswered questions would have remained unanswered even with a trial. And perhaps the prosecution had some holes in their evidence that possibly could have allowed him to walk. Someone can be guilty but the evidence can be weak.
in a perfect world, the DA or judge could have added some condition that the guy had to explain more about why he chose the deceased but that has nothing to do with admitting to doing it.
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On 6/30/2025 at 9:55 PM, TwiceHorn said:
Discount Tire will sell and install a TPMS sensor for ~$62 plus tax. https://www.discounttire.com/accessories/tpms/tpms-sensors-catalog
Went this route.
Discount Tire suggested that I fix all 4, I countered to only fix the broken one. They then offered to replace all 4 for the price of 1. Ok, I guess. Odd business model to give away free parts and labor.
They replaced all 4, and showed me that the tire pressure was transmitting to their handheld tool but the Explorer is now throwing errors with all 4 tires. Going back Saturday.
@TwiceHorn you meant well but this didn’t work out for me. I may be back to the Ford dealer and instead of $250 to fix 1 tire valve, I might be looking at $1000 for 4. Why did I let them replace all 4. Fuck.
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Always thought Madsen had the potential to be a much bigger actor but he was more successful than 99.9% and has some roles that will be remembered for a long time. especially his connection with Tarantino.
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2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:
I am in the minority, but I think a terrible recession or depression is the only thing that will make many people realize that we are all in this together. You have a huge part of the country thinking that the only reason you are poor and down and out is because you are lazy and stupid. Our bubble of domestic prosperity supports this lie in many peoples minds. When they lose their job and their homeless and hungry and their family breaks up, those idiots then realize that bad things can happen that have nothing to do with your work ethic or education or devotion to God.
I don’t think you can reach these people unless things go really really south. When people are standing in the same bread line and hoping to get a new deal type job so they can feed their family -we may get a reset to a time when most of America realized we needed a living wage, healthcare, unions, and to unite against the monied class and the politicians supporting them who make it difficult for us to have a decent life.
2 hours ago, VABuckeye said:As I am nearing retirement age I cannot get behind a recession, let alone a depression. Nope.
I can't hope for a recession, depression or war but one of those is the only thing that will change what some people believe. We already know that they don't care about others, so something would have to happen to them personally before they would want a change.
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Dems are great about fighting at the last minute to delay a bill that will pass regardless of their protests. The problem is when they lost the battles months or years ago when they failed to respectfully tell older Dems/liberals to retire from Congress, the WH or even SCOTUS. And when they have a dynamic, younger (relatively) senator like Franken, they oust him when a censure or other penalty would have sufficed.
And the cycle keeps repeating itself. Sotomayor should have stepped down in 2023 or 24. Yes, she's "only" 71 now but we could easily be looking at a long term GOP rule of the Senate if not WH. We may turn around tomorrow and she's 80+. You might think that she just got to the Supreme Court but this year she exceeded the average tenure (15 yrs) of a justice. Just imagine another justice, like Jackson who is 54 instead of 71. Damn, there are 2 justices younger than me now.
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On 7/1/2025 at 4:54 PM, jimmyjazz said:
Man, those sensors are a money grab. They alert when a tire is a half psi out of range, and they generally crap out over time anyway.
Build the habit of looking at your tires before you jump in the car. It's really not that hard to spot one that is struggling.
It's hard to not believe that many vehicle accessories don't have planned obsolescence and they are making it more and more difficult to work on cars yourself. Now most DIYers don't have the equipment to remove tires from the wheel to install these devices so the repair shops have a monopoly on these devices.
I understand the idea of letting a few repairs go unrepaired because of the cost but I also see that going down the road to eventually driving a POS.
4th of July Texas Flood
in Cloak Room
Posted
Thanks for the clarification.