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Ignatius

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by Ignatius

  1. 8 minutes ago, XYZ said:

    Riley at OUsucks calls plays and it seems to go OK for them. Doesn’t Gundy also call the plays?

    Difference is those guys call plays effectively.....

  2. 24 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

    If fired, pretty sure Orlando still gets $1.7 million for the 1yr remaining in his contract

    No worries, I Venmo’ed the cash to CDC a couple of hours ago....

    • Like 1
  3. 4 hours ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

    I hope the changes we make shut down the state

    Technology has killed the days when any Texas school could 'shut down the state', even if we were still winning.  In the 80s you could sit in front of mama in the living room in Tyler and say "Do you want to watch your son play every home game 3 hours away or watch him play on TV once a year?".  Those days are long, long gone - mama can watch Junior play every game no matter where it is.  Even if we were going 12-0 every regular season we wouldn't be 'locking down' the top 20 recruits every year...

  4. 1 hour ago, futureman said:

    andy reid is actually one of the few coaches in football that would make dak a good player. 

    Andy Reid is the best offensive game planner in the last 25 years in the NFL.  He would make Tom fucking Brady better....

  5. 50 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

    The problem is calling an 8 point game a “one possession” game when more than half the time a TD will still leave that team trailing.

    I also disagree with the premise that late in the game a team up 9 is less conservative than a team up 8.
     

    And for the record , down by 8 is by definition a ‘one score game’

    Really?  When you watch football you don’t see a team call plays differently late in the game up by one score vs two scores?

  6. On the “down by 15” question....

    Every breakdown of this I’ve ever seen assumes (from an analytics POV) that your odds of getting the back late in the game are equal.  In other words, after you score the first TD (to cut it to 9 prior to the PAT) there seems to be the assumption that no matter what you do, your opponent’s offensive philosophy won’t change at all, whether you’re down by two scores or one score.

    Does anyone actually believe this?  If you’re under 2 minutes, you’re ahead by 8 with the ball, and your opponent has 3 timeouts, there are a shitload if coaches out there who are going to hand off 3 times in a row for the sole purpose of making you burn all of those timeouts. In effect, they’re giving up their chance to get a first down that would ice the game and giving you the ball with (say) 1:40 and no TOs.

     

    Up by 9, however, there’s now a lot less risk for that same team to run the same offense that they ran the whole game, the same one that gave them the 15 point lead in the first place.  They can push the ball downfield, run/pass, whatever - it was a 2-score game before your TD, and it’s still a 2-score game after your TD.  And the flexibility that team has is the result of your decision to go for two after the first TD, and not make it a one-possession game.

    I believe in analytics, and I’ve never bought into the ‘extend the game’ argument, but it’s always bothered me that all of the ‘data driven’ arguments for always going for 2 after the first TD assume that your odds of getting the ball back late are equal whether it’s a one- or two-possession game.  From subjective observation, this isn’t the case...

     

     

     

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