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40acredropout

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Everything posted by 40acredropout

  1. Didn’t the players want to keep Charlie Strong?
  2. Rarely right but never in doubt. That should be the headline of this fucking place.
  3. ….or you don’t seem to understand he sorted games by points
  4. UConn +10 @ Army I think this UConn team has improved a ton over the course of the season. Remember, they didn't play in 2020 and then this is Jim Mora's first season as well. Say what you want about Mora, but he's a fantastic get for Uconn and he seems to be coaching them up. Started out 1-4 (0-4 against FBS) and have now won 5 of their last 6. Just upset Liberty as a 13.5 point dawg, upset BC (by 10 points) as a 7.5 point dawg and beat Fresno State as a 22.5 point dawg 9-2 ATS so far this season. Covered 7 in a row This is their last regular season game of the year. Army has two more after this. Feel like Mora keeps them from looking ahead to their bowl Army has won 1 game against FBS competition this year. FEI has them as 89th overall because they've actually played a decent schedule (Uconn at 108th) These teams rank 127th and 125th in seconds per play and 129th and 127th in Pass Play %. Won't be a lot of points and I like Uconn's odds of keeping it close. Auburn -5.5 vs Western Kentucky I think Cadillac has Auburn motivated to play this one. Despite Alabama being next week, Auburn sits at 4 wins so I feel like he gets them up for Senior Night and has them believing they can still go bowling. WKU airs it the fuck out. Throw 60% of the time (12th in country). Auburn defense got their first test against a productive pass offense two weeks ago against Mississippi State. They started to figure them out: 1st Half: 36 Plays, 217 Yards, 6.03 yards/play, 24 points 2nd Half: 42 Plays, 138 Yards, 3.29 yards/play, 9 points Best team WKU has played to date is UTSA (58th in FEI). Really I'm counting on SEC size and athleticism showing up and dominating this game. I think Auburn can slow down the air attack and my hope is Tank Bigsby can impose his will on the ground and wear out a WKU defense who has been more vulnerable against the run. Obligatory for if (when) I'm wrong:
  5. And probably wrong thread, but while I'm at it. 212 FBS receivers have been targeted 10+ times on deep balls (20+ yards). Worthy ranks 191st in catch %. 9 catches on 38 targets. Nobody with as many targets as a lower catch %. Stop giving away 5 plays a fucking game trying to make it happen. I'll eat crow when it finally works but holy fuck it is brutal watching that shit.
  6. Sark isn't doing Quinn any favors. Per PFF, Quinn is throwing Medium (10-19 yards) or Deep balls (20+ yards) on exactly 50% of his attempts. There are only 9 (of 131) FBS teams who throw medium/deep more frequently, and three of them are service academies who are skewed by sample size. I went and looked at it on game-by-game basis and there's been virtually zero adjustment, even as Quinn has appeared to be absolute lost in finding receivers downfield. I'm not an X's and O's guy but it just doesn't make sense to me why we aren't adjusting. Yes people are stacking the box. Everybody in the stadium knows we can't take the top off the defense. Instead of beating our heads against the wall, why don't we try to get athletes like Whittington, Worthy, either of our 3 super talented running backs, Brennan Thompson, etc. etc. etc. the ball in their hands in the flats and short and let them try to make plays. All the while building rhythm and confidence in the FRESHMAN quarterback.
  7. UMass is bad man. FEI has them ranked 131 (dead last), 131 and 125 in Overall, Offense and Defense. For comparison, App State ranks 69, 38 and 90. Even with all the guys out / dysfunction / lack of motivation, Aggy should be able to impose their will. UMass has allowed 7 yards/play against a bottom 10 strength of schedule. Given the heat ol' Thin Skin is under, I'd expect him to put up as many points as he can purely to fight the narrative that he shouldn't be calling plays anymore. I don't want to talk you out of betting ATS because it could happen and the potential lulz is worth it. But I'd probably stay away from the ML. EDIT- Fuck it, sprinkle the moneyline. Aggy has done nothing but aggy all season long.
  8. Jimbo Fisher: "It Looks Very Good."
  9. You're not wrong
  10. Head of sprit chair at AXO needs to roll. This is obviously why Spencer was butthurt.
  11. Curious to see how LSU @ Arky game plays out. I'm on LSU -3, along with everyone I know. I've heard several pundits (Klatt, Cover 3 Podcast guys, Andy Staples) express their surprise at the line. Feels like one of the most extreme examples I can recall of near unanimous consent on one side of a line... we will see if Vegas truly does know something we don't.
  12. Last year Card was a redshirt freshman. Which is technically same as Quinn. They had about same amount of time in Sark's system prior to starting first game.
  13. Found Elvis' handle on IT. Coaches better have their heads on swivels this weekend for the spies.
  14. Since 2010, the furthest year-over-year drop after achieving a #1 recruiting class was Florida going from 1 to 11 in 2010-2011 classes. Aggy currently stands at 23rd after the Hill decommitment. Further- no team landing a top 3 class has ever fell outside of the top 20. But Aggy...
  15. Just bought this for $5 on Poshmark. This is going to be a great gag gift in a few years.
  16. Counting on one of you to get a Muledick sign on gameday before the party starts.
  17. I've been kicking around Air Force -7 but the bizarre history of these games is giving me pause. Army defense is allowing 5.5 yards/rush (124th in country). FCS Colgate gained 6 yards/carry against them. PFF grades their rush defense as 127th. Advanced metrics- EPA has then 126th against the run, 129th in line yards, 129th in opportunity rate, 131st (dead last) in stuff rate. So you'd think Air Force offense should be able to dominate. I'm just not totally sure though... Army coming off bye week and they obviously know how to defend the attack. There have been instances in past where the advanced metric matchups (line yards) were close to as lopsided and you ended up getting really good games. Soooo.... I don't know.
  18. People always shit on PFF player grades but I can stand behind this one. Cain- 52.0 REC grade. Ranks 484/520 FBS, 42/43 B12.
  19. He's a changed man, dude. Try to keep up.
  20. Am I imagining that Weigman has had serious concussion issues previously? I feel like I read on here (so 50/50 if bullshit) he was another concussion away from focusing on baseball or something.
  21. Well duh but how many times has it happened?
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